In the days immediately after the special Massachusetts election, which gave Senate Republicans the ability to block votes on legislation, the prospects for reform looked so bleak that one reliable source emailed me a one-word message: “Dead.”

But within 24 hours, that same source had emailed me another one-word message: “Alive.”

And that’s a pretty good description of where things stand today, at least based on what I've gleaned from conversations with insiders over the last week.

According to these sources, Democrats have made progress--more progress, certainly, than might be evident from all the dire headlines of the past few days. There seems to be a plan in place for enacting reform, even with the Massachusetts setback.

But it’s not an easy plan to execute, at least in this political environment. And it’s not clear--to me and to many of the people I’ve interviewed--whether Democrats in the House, Senate, and administration are sufficiently committed to making it work.

Whispered in July, rumored in December, and nearly shouted earlier this week, today marks the official announcement of Florida’s high-speed rail investment by the federal government. Many will talk about what this day means for a new age of American infrastructure, and even more, including my colleagues, will debate the overall efficacy of such an investment. For me, I’d rather get into some of the nitty-gritty of what appears to be, thanks to the president’s Tampa event, the flagship project in Florida. 

First off, there’s much to like for Florida’s current residents and future tourists. The Tampa and Orlando metropolitan areas, along with their sandwiched neighbor Lakeland, were home to almost 3.4 million people in 2008. That year their economies produced $230.6 billion of economic output, more than the Czech Republic. A huge part of this is the vibrant tourist industry: Few places in the world give visitors simultaneous access to many top theme parks, multiple world-class beaches, and bona fide big city culture all within 120 miles. A pleasurable and useful train ride won’t just benefit Floridians, and could become an additional beacon to visitors across the country.

Florida also offers the Federal Railroad Administration, the official administrator of the high speed rail (HSR) stimulus grants, a well-prepared recipient. Florida already owns over 90 percent of the route’s right-of-way, they’ve already completed the environmental impact assessment, and the deal is structured to take advantage of private donations and operational risk. Just as importantly, Florida projects to open the line in 2015, making sure these funds get spent in short order and users will see the benefits quickly. Florida also has wanted this for some time; they originally passed a ballot initiative back in 2000.

But, let’ be clear--this isn’t a perfect plan. A major problem is that the Orlando Convention Center station is over eight miles from a soon-to-open SunRail commuter rail station. This disconnect represents a missed opportunity for intermodal linkage, especially since SunRail reaches downtown Orlando and the HSR route does not. Intermodal links, including the ease by which one can rent a car at the HSR stations, are critical in a state like Florida that’s been developed in an auto-centric manner.

So the White House has finally announced the full list of where that $8 billion in stimulus money for high-speed rail is going. Here are the two big, headline-grabbing projects:

Remarks of President Barack Obama – As Prepared for Delivery

The State of the Union

Wednesday, January 27, 2009

Washington, DC

Madame Speaker, Vice President Biden, Members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow Americans:

Our Constitution declares that from time to time, the President shall give to Congress information about the state of our union.  For two hundred and twenty years, our leaders have fulfilled this duty.  They have done so during periods of prosperity and tranquility.  And they have done so in the midst of war and depression; at moments of great strife and great struggle.

A new poll has Marco Rubio ahead of Charlie Crist in the Florida GOP Senate primary. The trajectory here is pretty obvious: Crist built an early lead based on name recognition, but Rubio is obviously the candidate Florida Republicans prefer and are going to nominate.

So it looks like tomorrow, after the State of the Union, President Obama is planning to announce how the $8 billion in stimulus money for high-speed rail projects will get spent. As noted earlier, a line between Tampa Bay and Orlando will probably be the first lucky recipient, getting federal funds to supplant private investment. But what about the rest?

Whatever happened to all that stimulus money for high-speed rail? It's taken awhile to select projects, but as Streetsblog's Elana Schor reports, the first lucky recipient might finally get picked on Thursday. That's when Obama's expected to announce $2.6 billion in federal funds for a new high-speed line between Tampa Bay and Orlando—a line that could help kick-start a vast new Florida network:

One aspect of climate change that's already affecting people in various parts of the world is the slow but steady rise in sea level (via YaleE360):

Yesterday’s release of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index has economists—and probably the Obama administration—on edge. The reason: an apparent softening of demand in October, which translated into weak home price growth across the 20 markets that the index tracks. That followed stronger, more widespread price growth in the summer months. The news has stoked fears of a “double dip” in house prices and the resulting havoc it might wreak in the mortgage market.

Like the economy itself, though, what you make of U.S. home prices depends on where you look. The latest Case-Shiller data portray an eclectic collection of metropolitan housing markets, experiencing divergent trends in recent months. The 20 metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller seem to break down into five types:

Consistent recovery. The three big coastal California metro areas—San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego, along with Phoenix and Detroit, posted price gains in October, following at least three consecutive months of price growth. Prices in San Francisco were up a considerable 12 percent from their trough in April 2009.

After four quarters of decline, GDP finally grew, and at a pace--3.5 percent annually--not seen since the summer of 2007. As my colleagues Alan Berube and Bill Galston point out, and as I argued last month, signs of economic growth don’t necessarily mean a rapid recovery, a sustained recovery, or even a recovery that feels meaningful to the vast majority of Americans. But that’s not the horse I want to ride today. Instead, I want to read the tea leaves (the details of the GDP numbers for the third quarter of this year) to see what they suggest about the geography of the recovery--which metro areas are likely to be recovering and which aren’t.

First, the obvious.  

• The cash for clunkers program temporarily boosted auto sales and, most likely, the economic fortunes of the 62 metro areas (mostly in the Great Lakes and South Central regions) that depend heavily on making cars and auto parts. 
• The first-time homebuyer tax credit, now set to expire at the end of November but possibly up for renewal, probably boosted housing sales and prices (or at least kept prices from sliding further) in the metro areas of Florida and the Southwest that were hit hardest by the collapse of the housing bubble. (The most recent Case-Shiller house price numbers bear this out, showing house prices rising over the summer in Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, and Tampa and slowing their pace of decline in Las Vegas.) 
• Federal government spending grew (although not by as much as in the second quarter of this year), largely as a result of the economic stimulus. That should especially benefit Washington, D.C., and metro areas such as Virginia Beach that have large military installations. 

Now, the not-so-obvious.

Florida is known as "The Sunshine State," but it is one of the few states where rain could actually make a difference this Tuesday.

Tallahassee--John McCain and Florida Governor Charlie Crist, who have now endorsed each other in their respective primaries, also have something else in common: They both appear to prefer each other’s company to that of the president.

Last night, McCain finished his campaign day with Crist by his side, in Crist’s home turf of Tampa Bay. Some 800 miles to the northeast, President Bush was getting ready to deliver his final State of the Union address to Congress, which McCain, as a senator, is technically a member of.