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Just when momentum was starting to build for increased capital requirements as the core element of an approach that will reign in reckless risk-taking, Morgan Stanley effectively demolishes the idea.
In “Banking – Large & Midcap Banks: Bid for Growth Caps Capital Ask,” (no public link available) Betsy Graseck, Ken Zorbo, Justin Kwon, and John Dunn of Morgan Stanley Research North America dissect the coming demands for more bank capital.
“In short, we think the demand for growth and access to credit will trump desire for unprofitable capital levels…
For the large cap and midcap banks, we expect normalized median common tier-1 ratios to come in at 8.4% and 10.0% respectively.”
That’s less capital than Lehman had just before it failed--11 percent. (If you doubt this, read the transcript of the final Lehman conference call--link is in this NYT.com piece or try this direct link; see p.7, for example)
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