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Gerry Connolly

The Dodgy Political Punditry of Moderate Dems

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One of the most frustrating consequences of an Election Day like Tuesday is that it invariably (if fleetingly) transforms moderate politicians with no particular insight into the dynamics of public opinion into all-knowing sages. More to the point, it elevates their perfect-for-every-occasion view of politics, which says that if your party suffers a setback, the reason must be that it was too far to one side of the political spectrum, and so the answer is obviously to move back to the middle. And, of course, "the middle" is almost never a coherent worldview or set of policy preferences, but simply 10 or 25 or 50 percent less than what one side or the other proposes. So, for example, you get stuff like this from Ben Nelson and Olympia Snowe in Politico:

"People need to be saying slow it down and don’t add more to the deficit," Nelson said. "And what have many of us been talking about? We don’t want to see anything added to the deficit unless there’s cost containment." On health care, Nelson said: "Let’s see coverage extended, … but at what cost?’

Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe, the lone Republican to vote for a health care bill, said Tuesday’s results should slow Democrats down on health care — and "certainly gives pause on how you approach things.

Or take this from today's Wall Street Journal:

"What the exit polls showed was real voter fatigue with how crowded the plate is," said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D., Va.). "We need to take a deep breath, step back and clean the plate before we add to it." ...

"I do consider Virginia a bellwether state," said Rep. Gene Taylor of Mississippi, a conservative Democrat. "I would encourage the leadership to get back to the center."

But why would "too liberal" or "too expensive" or "too crowded" be the most plausible reading of what voters said Tuesday? Wouldn't an equally plausible reading be that voters don't think the economy is improving or that Washington is making it better, regardless of where those efforts lie along some dubious ideological spectrum? 

For the moderate view of politics to be right, it would have to be the case that the average voter has a well-worked out worldview, and that he or she gets upset when politicians deviate even a couple ticks in either direction along the ideological spectrum. Or it would have to be the case that the average voter has fairly precise, well-thought-out ideas about the "right amount" for Congress or the White House to have "on its plate" at any given moment. Deviate from those preferences, and the voters will rise up to punish you.

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