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Metro Home Price Recovery: Strong, Weak, Non-existent?

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house for sale Yesterday’s release of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index has economists—and probably the Obama administration—on edge. The reason: an apparent softening of demand in October, which translated into weak home price growth across the 20 markets that the index tracks. That followed stronger, more widespread price growth in the summer months. The news has stoked fears of a “double dip” in house prices and the resulting havoc it might wreak in the mortgage market.

Like the economy itself, though, what you make of U.S. home prices depends on where you look. The latest Case-Shiller data portray an eclectic collection of metropolitan housing markets, experiencing divergent trends in recent months. The 20 metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller seem to break down into five types:

Consistent recovery. The three big coastal California metro areas—San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego, along with Phoenix and Detroit, posted price gains in October, following at least three consecutive months of price growth. Prices in San Francisco were up a considerable 12 percent from their trough in April 2009.

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The Fed's Exit Strategy Could Be Graceful

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There's been much hullabaloo over the Fed's ability to quickly remove the hundreds of billions of dollars it has pumped into the financial system after the economy recovers, but before the increased money supply sparks inflation.

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Worth Reading

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Plenty more insider-trading charges could be coming.

Dubner's response to Superfreakonomics criticism.

Bernanke: China should spend more on healthcare.

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Worth Reading

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The Fed's inflation-fighting credibility is rock-solid.

But you can't say the same for America's strong-dollar policy.

Is FHA headed the way of Fannie and Freddie?

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Maybe Securitization Didn't Cause the Crisis

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Soon forthcoming in the top-ranked Quarterly Journal of Economics is a very well- received paper by four economists with convincing evidence of what many believe was the primary cause of the subprime boom and bust: That securitization took away the incentive for lenders to properly vet borrowers.

But there's some new evidence questioning the paper's findings. To understand the how and why, we have to get into the nitty-gritty of the empirics.

If you plot FICO (i.e., credit) scores against the number of mortgages outstanding, you'll notice a peculiar pattern:

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Worth Reading

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Bailouts of Fannie and Freddie could also turn a profit.

Sheila Bair: Super-regulator would "benefit the largest banks and punish community ones."

Vanity Fair profiles Hank Paulson.

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Fannie And Freddie Got Married

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