Ever since Bill Clinton made himself a Democratic star with his televised rebuttal to the 1985 State of the Union address, hacks from both parties have been treating the response speech as a kind of "American Idol" for politics. From Bobby Jindal to Kathleen Sebelius to Bob Dole, the slot gets reserved for the presumptive Next Big Thing. But, as on "American Idol," the speakers often fall flat on their faces. Click through this TNR slideshow for a look at some of recent history's unfortunate State of the Union fizzles.

When I studied the results of my national surveys of public opinion one week before the Massachusetts special election, I felt a wave of panic--a strangely familiar feeling. The results showed that the public’s hope had given way to disillusionment; that Democrats had come to embody political gridlock and big spending; that conservatives were energized and Democrats demoralized; that the country was in revolt against elites. It was beginning to look like, gulp, 1994 all over again.

If you read this blog, you probably want to know the true state of play in the health care reform debate.

Well, join the club. After yet another a round of phone calls on Friday, I've become convinced that nobody really knows for sure.

But Mrs. Clinton is the designated canary who brings the bad news. Or, rather, the good news... at least to the mullahs. She has now told everyone who will listen that the U.S. has no plans for a military strike against Iran. And, given the 
president's deeply ideological commitment to peaceful engagement with Tehran, there is no reason to doubt her.

In 1994, when they were killing Bill Clinton's health care plan, Republicans promised over and over they just wanted to do it right. Start fresh and pass a real health care plan without all the bad socialist stuff:

"We don't have to do it all this year," [Bob Dole] said in the closing address to committee members. "We don't have to do any of it this year. You know, Congress meets every year.

Jonathan Chait parses Obama's statements last night and sees an emerging game plan. A key element is Obama's determination to reach out to the Republicans one last time before pushing ahead.

Harold Pollack is a professor at the University of Chicago School of Social Service Administration and Special Correspondent for The Treatment.

Harold Pollack is the Helen Ross Professor of Social Service Administration at the University of Chicago and a Special Correspondent for The Treatment.

I recently did a Curbside Consult with deputy drug czar Tom McLellan. I hope that you read it, because he had important things to say about medical marijuana, the need to critically evaluate supply-side interdiction, and many other things. I disagree with of his views. I am more open to harm reduction approaches to the serious problem of opiate overdose. I have a more permissive views regarding marijuana policy. Still, when I compare that interview with past pronouncements coming from that same office, McLellan’s moderate embrace of evidence-informed policy is admirable..

Shortly after that feature appeared, the New York Times ran a nice profile of McLellan by Sarah Kershaw. Kershaw noted one aspect of McLellan’s personal story I didn't mention. McLellan recently lost a son to a drug overdose. His wife and another son have also experienced substance use disorders.  

You might wonder why I did not discuss these pertinent and poignant facts. If you are an advocate, academic researcher, or practitioner in drug abuse, HIV, disability, or mental health, you hear many serious personal stories about colleagues, acquaintances, and peers. Some have struggled with drug problems or depression. Others live with HIV or hepatitis C. Others care for a sick spouse, sibling, or child. Many have experienced some other tragedy or challenge among those close to them. I generally put such information in the category: "Hard not to notice, easy not to say." 

On an ordinary day, Henry Aaron, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, comes across as the quintessential policy wonk: knowledgeable, thoughtful, measured, perhaps even a tad boring. With his rumpled suits, snowy hair, and rosy jowls, the genial septuagenarian brings to mind one's favorite uncle--assuming that uncle had spent the past 40 years exploring tax policy, health care financing, and the intricacies of sprawling entitlement programs.

Even before Ted Kennedy lost his battle with brain cancer late last month, Republicans were suggesting that health care reform had suffered in his absence--not because Kennedy was so devoted to the cause, but because he would have cut a deal with the Republicans. “In every case, he fought as hard as he could . . .

Earlier this year, a group of former Senate Majority Leaders--Howard Baker and Bob Dole, along with Tom Daschle--released a template for bipartisan health reform. They did so through the Bipartisan Policy Center, which they'd established along with George Mitchell (who subsequently left to join the Obama administration).

In 1993 and 1994, Bob Dole masterfully used the chimera of bipartisanship to defeat health care reform. While opposing President Clinton's reform plan, he co-sponsored his own alternative that he used to paint Clinton as too liberal. When Clinton's planfinally died, Dole renounced support for his own plan, so that nothing at all happened.

If you're trying to pin down a moment from 1994 when the fate of the Clinton health care plan was sealed, you could do worse than January 25. On that night, then-Senator Bob Dole responded to the president's State of the Union address. Clinton had hoped to use the speech to help sell his proposal; Dole used his response to help kill it. And he did it primarily not through what he said, but what he showed on camera.

Some people keep talismans in their wallets to remind them of those they love: a romantic letter, a set of dog tags, a family picture. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has such a token--but it's to remind him of the people he hates.

In the tumultuous history of postwar American conservatism, defeats have often contained the seeds of future victory. In 1954, the movement's first national tribune, Senator Joseph McCarthy, was checkmated by the Eisenhower administration and then "condemned" by his Senate colleagues. But the episode, and the passions it aroused, led to the founding of National Review, the movement's first serious political journal. Ten years later, the right's next leader, Barry Goldwater, suffered one of the most lopsided losses in election history.

David Kusnet was chief speechwriter for former President Bill Clinton from 1992 to 1994. He is the author of Love the Work, Hate the Job: Why America's Best Workers Are Unhappier than Ever.     

He didn't lay a glove on him.  

As Jason notes below, John McCain's biographical speech was a good imitation of Bob Dole, circa 1996. Additionally, it's worth noting the speech echoed the carefully constructed biographical narrative of another recent GOP candidate: George W. Bush.

Ed Kilgore:

Manhattan, Kansas

The debate between Representative Dennis Moore and his Republican challenger Phill Kline in October 2000 had yet to begin, and I was roaming the halls of Shawnee Mission South High School looking for Kansans to interview. I came upon a diminutive, nattily dressed man who seemed to be looking for a reporter to engage. What were Kline's chances of unseating Moore, I asked him. Moore didn't stand a chance, he assured me. "In Kansas, there really is no Democratic Party, " he explained. "There are only two wings of the Republican Party." When I asked for the man's name, he replied incredulously that he was Senator Sam Brownback.