The lines most cited in Barack Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize speech were those about evil: “Evil does exist in the world. A non-violent movement could not have halted Hitler’s armies. Negotiations cannot convince Al Qaeda’s leaders to lay down their arms. To say that force may sometimes be necessary is not a call to cynicism--it is a recognition of history, the imperfections of man and the limits of reason.”

After four quarters of decline, GDP finally grew, and at a pace--3.5 percent annually--not seen since the summer of 2007. As my colleagues Alan Berube and Bill Galston point out, and as I argued last month, signs of economic growth don’t necessarily mean a rapid recovery, a sustained recovery, or even a recovery that feels meaningful to the vast majority of Americans. But that’s not the horse I want to ride today. Instead, I want to read the tea leaves (the details of the GDP numbers for the third quarter of this year) to see what they suggest about the geography of the recovery--which metro areas are likely to be recovering and which aren’t.

First, the obvious.  

• The cash for clunkers program temporarily boosted auto sales and, most likely, the economic fortunes of the 62 metro areas (mostly in the Great Lakes and South Central regions) that depend heavily on making cars and auto parts. 
• The first-time homebuyer tax credit, now set to expire at the end of November but possibly up for renewal, probably boosted housing sales and prices (or at least kept prices from sliding further) in the metro areas of Florida and the Southwest that were hit hardest by the collapse of the housing bubble. (The most recent Case-Shiller house price numbers bear this out, showing house prices rising over the summer in Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, and Tampa and slowing their pace of decline in Las Vegas.) 
• Federal government spending grew (although not by as much as in the second quarter of this year), largely as a result of the economic stimulus. That should especially benefit Washington, D.C., and metro areas such as Virginia Beach that have large military installations. 

Now, the not-so-obvious.

Richard Yeselson is a research coordinator for the labor federation, Change to Win. The opinions he expresses are his own.

Matt Yglesias and Karl Smith question Bill Galston's claim that the 1980's to the mid-2000's was a period which saw an

With the primary race finally wrapped up, we asked a few friends of the magazine to consider the type of campaign Barack Obama should run against John McCain. Up here is Ed Kilgore, managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.