What Happened To John McCain?

John McCain doesn't sound too thrilled with the new Kerry-Boxer climate bill. In fact, he doesn't seem too keen in crossing the political aisle at all these days—CQ noted that his voting record this session is on track to be the most partisan of his career. But when it comes to climate change, his recent about-face is especially odd. McCain was, after all, an early champion of cap-and-trade, sponsoring climate bills in 2003 and 2005. But this time around, instead of working with Democrats, McCain's been tweeting that, for instance, Waxman-Markey "appears to be a cap & tax bill that I won't support."

So what gives? Why the drastic shift? I asked a number of people who've worked with him over the years and a couple theories came up:

First, it's possible that McCain's worried about a primary challenge. Recent polls show, for instance, that an unusually low percentage of Arizona Republicans approve of the job he's doing. In next year's GOP primary he may have to face Chris Simcox, of Minuteman fame, who might be less of a joke than once thought. That challenge, notes Jim DiPeso of Republicans for Environmental Protection, just might be enough to prevent McCain from being the "spear-carrier" for climate change right now.

A second possibility? McCain still hasn't gotten over the 2008 election and is acting out of spite. Recall that in 2001, he adopted his maverick persona and opposed (for instance) the Bush tax cuts after his primary defeat to Bush—according to CQ, his 67 percent "party unity" score that year was among the lowest in the Senate. So it may be now with Obama and climate change. That fits with what many see as McCain's antagonistic streak. "Part of his personal makeup is a suspicion of authority," notes Daniel Schnur, a former McCain campaign adviser and director of the Institute of Politics at USC.

Not everyone is giving up on McCain, however. One former Senate aide familiar with McCain’s prior efforts argues that McCain is as committed as ever, but doesn't see himself as just another senator willing to fall in line with Senate Democrats. He wants his ego stroked. "If the president reached out to him and said, 'you've led on this issue for a decade, it needs to happen, what do you need to be in this bill?' I think that would be a thing which he would be engaged on. But so far he's not being asked to be a partner." It's not clear what, exactly, McCain is holding out for, but he could be key to getting a climate bill passed. "Frankly right now as the political momentum slows on this issue," notes the former staffer, "you need the McCain from 2003 to say 'no, we must lead.' "

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COMMENTS (6)

10/03/2009 - 12:59am EDT |

When a politician aged 72 shoots the moon and loses the bet, he starts grappling with oblivion in a manner that is not always readily apparent.

To grapple in turn with What This Means is as futile as it is illusively enigmatic. I wish you the best though in trying to figure it all out.

It will be one less worry the rest of us have if you do.

gw

10/03/2009 - 10:13am EDT |

You should donate your brain to science, walton. So often, we learn how something works by observing neural damage. For instance, people with damaged amygdalas have trouble with facial recognition or with reading other people's emotions. Your donation could potentially help humanity hugely.

10/03/2009 - 2:11pm EDT |

Well Obama doesn't seem to have any qualms about stroking egos when he needs to get something done, so let's hope the last Senate aide is correct.

10/03/2009 - 3:53pm EDT |

Obama should stroke any egos, including McCain's, that he needs for getting needed legislation passed. But as it relates to McCain, it begs the question of why a self-styled maverick, patriot etc would need his ego stroked before supporting an issue he was previously known to favor.

I think, likely, he hasn't gotten over the election. And given how he defended the "death panels" charge (he appeared to give it credence), I'd say the man is still stuck on petty.

10/04/2009 - 8:36pm EDT |

What happened to McCain? He made the mistake of showing his true colors by picking an idiot as his VP candidate while too many voters were paying attention. It was a reckless and stupid move that continues to risk permanently alienating "moderates" that were a crucial piece of the Republican coalition every single time Sarah Palin says something stupid in public and that's nearly every time she opens her mouth to speak. He opened up Pandora's box and lost the lid by hitching his wagon to her and he knows he can't hide from that. Now he's reduced to looking like a pouting old man since it's become clear how bad of a gamble that might have been not just for his legacy but the GOP's future ... view full comment

10/05/2009 - 10:38am EDT |

What McCain needs is a hug from George W. Bush. That seemed to be enough prior to the 2008 election. Whoever John McCain was when he made his run in 2000, he did his best to remodel himself over the next 8 years. By the time he was mouthing self-serving slogans about putting America first and simultaneously contradicting that platitude by choosing the under-qualified Sarah Palin as a running mate, he had transformed himself into the kind of first-class jerk whose day-to-day pandering to the Glenn Beck crowd is only occasionally offset by an unexpected moment of honorable decency.

Those of us who admired the man years ago are hurt as much by these glimpses of who he might have been as by t ... view full comment

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