How Important Are Those Stolen Climate E-mails?

I've been away for a few days and have only just caught up with the story of the hacked e-mail accounts at the University of East Anglia's Climactic Research Unit (CRU). Juliet Elperin has a nice rundown in The Washington Post. From what I've gathered, the stolen e-mails reveal that climatologists are: a) engaged in a lot of boring and dry data-crunching, b) extremely hostile toward global-warming skeptics like Cato's Pat Michaels, and c) not always nice people. But does this add up to a "scandal," as folks like James Inhofe are crowing? Well, yes and no.

One major question is whether any of the stolen e-mails show that climate scientists are somehow fudging data. And the answer, as best I can tell, is "certainly not." A lot of the early press coverage focused on CRU director Phil Jones's missive to colleagues about using a "trick" to "hide the decline" in temperatures. That sounds nefarious at first, but as Gavin Schmidt explains, Jones is simply referring to a method of concatenating two different data sets—this "trick" has been openly discussed in scientific journals like Nature since 1998. There's nothing in the e-mails I've seen (here's a long index compiled by a climate skeptic) to suggest the vast body of research on climate change—which extends well beyond the handful of scientists represented here—is suspect. Nothing to suggest fraud.

There is a separate issue, though—the stance some of the scientists take toward skeptics. At one point, CRU's Phil Jones refers to two papers that question the link between greenhouse-gas emissions and rising temperatures and tells a colleague, "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow—even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!" In another e-mail exchange, Jones and Penn State's Michael Mann talk about pressuring a journal not to accept work by global-warming deniers. That sounds bad, doesn't it?

First, some background: It appears that Jones and Mann are referring to a particular episode from 2003, when the journal Climate Research published a miserable paper by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas disputing the widely held notion that the rate of warming in the twentieth century has been unprecedented. Climate scientists from around the world began writing in, unsolicited, to point out fatal flaws in the paper (noting especially that the paper's own evidence didn't even support its conclusion), and eventually half the journal's editorial board resigned in protest.

Now, do these e-mails really reflect badly on the scientific process? You could make a good argument that they don't. After all, if a paper's that badly flawed—and if it's likely to give ammunition to politically motivated deniers—then it ought to be protested, no? Shoddy research should be excluded from IPCC assessments. (To be sure, IPCC chapter heads have to respond to every single objection they receive—so nothing's ever "excluded" entirely.) If I was trying my hardest to slip an intelligent-design paper into a biology journal, it'd be greeted with the same overt hostility. As Tyler Cowen observes, "it's very often that scientific consensus 'sounds that way.' " And while a consensus can sometimes be wrong and get overturned, that doesn't mean we should just abandon the peer-review process entirely and accept all research as equally valid.

On the other hand, I agree with George Monbiot here: Some of these e-mails are unseemly, and it's unwise to brush them off. The scientific community absolutely has to take the high ground on the climate issue—it doesn't matter that deniers behave far worse, or that scientists feel beleaguered after years of being smeared by conspiracy nuts on the right. And, true, science has never been as "clean" as people like to romanticize; scientists have acted like agenda-wielding jerks throughout history, yet the process remains robust. But on an issue this politicized, that process has to be as pristine as humanly possible. I'm not sure if Jones should resign as head of CRU, as Monbiot suggests, or if the U.S. peer-review process needs to become more transparent, as is happening in Europe, or what. But trying to ignore this whole episode doesn't strike me as viable. Even if this story changes nothing about climate science itself, perceptions do matter.

More: Maggie Koerth-Baker has a smart, balanced take raising similar concerns (she focuses on CRU's refusal to release certain data sets, which may be understandable but doesn't seem to have been handled well) and also provides a nice, comprehensive link round-up.

(Flickr photo credit: lwtclearningcommons)

COMMENTS (14)

11/26/2009 - 1:16am EDT |

Mr. Plumer, with all due respect, your take on this seems to be missing the forest for the trees; but perhaps this is attributable to your having been persuaded (as have many, apparently) by the likes of Al Gore, whose AIT blockbuster has been found - by the High Court in London, U.K. - to contain at least 9 errors of fact (although there are 35 in total).

Science does not arrive at conclusions by "consensus", but by rigorous examination of data and reproducible results - by others. This is scientific "peer review". The powers-that-be in the "warmist" tribe, have been very reluctant to submit their data to other professionals for review. This is, IMHO, very alarming - primarily because ... view full comment

11/26/2009 - 1:39am EDT |

A further thought occurs to me. By far the majority of articles I've seen to date on the CRU kerfuffle or confidence crisis [depending one's perspective] assume that the notorious and voluminous emails were acquired by a "hacker". Yet there is -an albeit as yet unproven - possibility [if not probability] that this was an "inside job" by a whisleblower.

Contrast this "assumption" with the standard media [not to mention Presidential] PC response to the "Allahu Akbar" shouting treasonous murderer at Fort Hood, whom we are urged to "not judge" until all the facts are known.

Methinks there is something rotten in the state of ... uh... Denmark?! In any event, there is something definitel ... view full comment

11/26/2009 - 12:27pm EDT |

Hold the presses! Science is politicized. Who'd'a thunk? Next thing you know we'll be hearing that religion is politicized. Come to think of it, they are exhibiting an increasing similarity.

11/26/2009 - 3:38pm EDT |

Yes, scientists need to remain true to our best practices, the scientific method and open publication and review. Yes, I am a member of that tribe (although not in climate science). We need to state scientific conclusions in clear language that respects the assumptions and limitations of the data and models used. We need to make it clear where the line between personal opinion and professional opinion lie. In my experience, most scientists do this successfully.

A fundamental tenet of science is that you have to accept the answer you get, even if it is not the answer you want. If you think the answer you get is wrong or suspect, you should look thoroughly and skeptically at the data used, assu ... view full comment

11/27/2009 - 12:10am EDT |

Yeah well, the other day I overheard one of my students talk about how "the trick" in a legal argument was to present a case in a particular way. Needless to say, post-haste, I brought him before an academic committee for fraud, trickery and treason and had him hung and drawn. What's more, the academic committee found no less than 9 errors in the guy's 233 page dissertation. We had the corpse quartered and affixed to the walls of the class to serve as a warning to others.

The nerve of some people.

JEFF: you know I love you dearly, man, but I - in all seriousness - I am a little sceptical about the rigour of a lot of the analysis that passes for scientific. I actually stopped reading Scient ... view full comment

11/27/2009 - 12:41am EDT |

True enough, icarus, both science and law are human endeavors. We can't be perfect, but the system of science is largely self-correcting and self-policing, and that's why it has worked so well (whatever some may think). Even a powerful proponent of a discredited and dangerous theory or procedure can hamper progress only for so long. And while I have seen powerful proponents of some theory hamper progress for a while, I have never seen one of them be able to enforce broad consensus.

I don't know the detailed history of SA vs. Lomborg, but if he has jumped the shark by now, I wonder if there may have been warning signs even at the beginning. But that's just a guess.

11/27/2009 - 1:34am EDT |

Icarus, your friend's anecdote reminds me of a session at a meeting a few years ago on subsidence in Louisiana, which had actually been the subject of a bitter quarrel between two groups in the area before Katrina (one said the area was subsiding a lot, the other said no because there were some old (10s of thousands of years) features that supported a low average subsidence. Now, I doubt anything would really have been done to save New Orleans even if this local pissing match had not muddled the matter from a scientific viewpoint, because studies had already shown that the levees were inadequate for a big storm, even if the levees were still at the elevation they thought they were at. But it ... view full comment

11/29/2009 - 10:58am EDT |

Isaac Asimov once explained about science -- someone in the establishment will always be against it. The question of science and politics, for me, is always who profits? Drug companies are an example of the mix of profit and science and so is the car industry (safer car parts). When there is conflicting evidence, who profits if we believe that greenhouse gases are dangerous and who profits if we believe they are not? I want to go with the side that profits if we believe they are dangerous.

11/30/2009 - 11:46am EDT |

There are profit mongers on both sides of this issue. So, going with the side that profits if we believe GHG's are dangerous is not perticularly virtuous. Cooking the science in favor of one view or another is reprehensible, whether done by a drug company or a university.

From WSJ

"The findings from East Anglia have been at the core of policy reports by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC does not do its own research but compiles information relating to climate change. It has declared the evidence that the globe is warming to be "unequivocal," a claim routinely cited by lawmakers in the U.S. and elsewhere as authoritative.

The IPCC stresses honest science. According t ... view full comment

11/30/2009 - 12:24pm EDT |

"The scientific community absolutely has to take the high ground on the climate issue—it doesn't matter that deniers behave far worse, or that scientists feel beleaguered after years of being smeared by conspiracy nuts on the right."

Can you cite an example where deniers have behaved far worse? All I have seen personally were accusations that contrarian data have been suppressed. And this appears to be true.

11/30/2009 - 1:44pm EDT |

"Can you cite an example where deniers have behaved far worse?"

Sure: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/05/moncktons-delibera...

11/30/2009 - 3:46pm EDT |

Very interesting Brad. Thanks. I can see that using 2002 vs 1980 as a base year can produce a distorted picture. But, even using 1980 as a base year, it appears to me that the temperature increas has tended downward, not upward, and result in a 100 year increase well under 2 deg C. That IPCC has predicted 2.4, 3, 3.9, 4.7 and 5.3 deg C rises is not a fabrication on Monckton's part. The actual data from 1980 do not support those assertions, and I suspect that they are exaggerated for impact.

I also am amused by the use of "stolen" in the title of this blog. Apparently this was requested under the UK Freedom of Information law with no result. The Pentagon Papers were "stolen" for similar reason ... view full comment

11/30/2009 - 10:36pm EDT |

You really should consider looking into global warming a little more deeply...others are. A major breach of accepted scientific method may have occurred, and may be continuing. Even an hour's reading of the released text and code comments is shocking...and far beyond normal sausage making gore among professionals. Scientists, after all, have human DNA and are susceptible to the hubris and the debasement that represents the dark side of human conduct.

Our lifestyle, much of our accumulated wealth, and our national destiny may be at stake in the global warming experience. It's unseemly to ask common people to make massive lifestyle changes based on an elitist "trust me" exhortation, accompanied ... view full comment

11/30/2009 - 11:30pm EDT |

If you want to see how far Britain is ahead of the US in this arena try the following from FT authored by an MIT scientist. Where's the NYT and WP? And wheres NR?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8aefbf52-d9e1-11de-b2d5-00144feabdc0.html

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