Why Are Health Reform's Big Winners So Skeptical?

More than any demographic group, American 50 and over are skeptical of health care reform. While those aged 18-49 are equally likely to believe that health care reform will improve or worsen their own medical care, according to a recent Gallup poll those 50-64 are more likely to believe it will worsen their care, 37% to 26%, with the margin even wider (39% to 20%) among those 65 and older.

As health wonks will tell you, there's a certain irony to this. The benefits of comprehensive health care reform are arguably greatest for those between the ages of 50 and 64, who are not yet eligible for Medicare. "I cannot imagine a more vulnerable group of people," Sara Rosenbaum of George Washington University tells me, "who stand to gain more from health reform than almost anybody." If not covered by their employers, people in their 50s and early 60s have to brave the individual market, with its higher costs and limited access, especially for older people with higher medical costs. "If they can get insurance at all, and they may be in a situation where no insurer will sell to them in the individual markets, the price will be absolutely exorbitant," Rosenbaum explains. The health insurance exchange and subsidies included in the tri-committee House bill and most other Congressional proposals would greatly reduce costs for this group. "Those folks are the sob stories of health care. The 61 year-old self-employed worker who can’t get health insurance because of a prior condition, or who is priced out of the market," David Cutler, a Harvard economist and former health care advisor to the Obama campaign, says. "Premiums for those folks ought to fall a lot, they will get more choice in care, and the coverage will be a lot better. This group is one of the single biggest winners."

Why do people who stand to gain so much from health reform opposed it so vehemently? John Rother, the Executive Vice President of Policy and Strategy for the AARP, notes that seniors are already more skeptical of Obama personally than the general public, which may translate into less support for his programs--an argument supported by the Gallup data. But he also emphasizes that seniors, like most of the public, are still unclear on what health reform will specifically entail, and that the media and politicians are not generally helping. "I think for most people this is still early in the debate, and they don’t really understand what’s being proposed, and what they do hear is being, in my view, wildly distorted," he theorizes.

The situation for Medicare beneficiaries is more complicated. Medicare cost-controls are a key element of most health reform proposals, which makes opposition by those 65 and older more understandable. Still, it is doubtful that reform would affect their coverage substantially. "They’re being scared with rhetoric that Medicare is being cut or that it’s going to be a smaller or slimmer program coming out of health reform," says Joseph Baker, president of the Medicare Rights Center. But, as Baker explains, these fears are misplaced. "The cost savings associated with Medicare are cost-savings that make the program more sustainable, that attempt to improve quality in the program at the same time that they lower costs," he argues. Rosenbaum agrees. "The irony here is that all of these changes have been taken to stabilize the program going forward, to make sure that the trust fund remains viable, and instead of people understanding that the changes were made in order to keep the program viable, it has been portrayed as slashing and burning of the Medicare program," she laments. Cutler acknowledges that there will be some reductions in Medicare payments, but argues that these will generally not be noticeable to beneficiaries. "If one wanted to tell the apocalyptic story, you’d talk about access problems that might result, but no one believes those at the levels we are talking about," he explains.

Both Baker and Rother are emphasizing the benefits of health reform to the seniors they represent. Baker focuses on the tangible benefits for Medicare recipients in the Congressional proposals, like increased funding for low-income Medicare recipients and the closing of the "donut hole" in Medicare Part D wherein the program does not pay for seniors' prescriptions. Rother is focused on reassuring AARP members that they will not lose coverage, but believes that Obama needs to focus more on what voters stand to gain from health reform. "I don’t think people understand yet just how much money they would save compared to being in the individual market today," he says. "We’re talking $4,000 to $5,000 a year in savings for some people. Once we get to a point where we can be specific about that, that’ll help people come around."

COMMENTS (26)

08/06/2009 - 6:25pm EDT |

Might have something to do with fact that your analysis ignores the perceived cost. If you subscribe to the theory that there is no free lunch, the savings of $4,000 to $5,000 a year has to be paid by someone. Taking money out of my left pocket and putting in my right pocket doesn't make me a winner, especially if the party handling the transfer is a government bureaucrat.

08/06/2009 - 7:52pm EDT |

What is a "perceived cost"?

08/06/2009 - 8:18pm EDT |

Irony,

Hello again. A perceived cost is one which consumers believe that they will have to pay for. I think a lot of people in the 50 to 64 age group "perceive"  they are going to get taxed to pay for health care reform.  

08/06/2009 - 10:32pm EDT |

dtohmatsu has it right.  The oldies are afraid they will lose access to care they value or it will cost them more.  The pre-oldies are afraid they will pay more in taxes than they will receive in benefits.  Are at least some of these fears overblown? Perhaps.  But these perceptions--with apologies to ironyroad--are there, and they have been aggravated by what they have heard from the administration and the congressional leadership.  What they think they hear is 1) emphasis on providing, or reducing the burden of, coverage for "others", and 2) a determination to have a single payor system.  Reducing "their" costs appears to them to be at best ... view full comment

08/07/2009 - 12:38pm EDT |

As it happens, I agree with your take, lsernoff', by and large, if not with the conclusions.  But it seems to me you also buttress my own point that we are in a war of perceptions here, as opposed to real experiential knowledge.

My sense of it is that there has been much talk about (1) but very little about (2).  Or, to put it more accurately, people have heard plenty about the desirability of spreading both risk and coverage around, but the main story about the single-payor system is that it is one option, with extensive experience in other advanced nations, but is not being considered as a central proposal here in the U.S. at this point.

The question is, again, why do they -- as yo ... view full comment

08/07/2009 - 1:08pm EDT |

The problem is that the architects of the current reform bill are for the most part all proponents of a single- payor system. Americans by and large are skeptical of big government, and thus they don't trust the motives, explanations, or purported outcomes that are being offered by the reform backers.

08/07/2009 - 1:17pm EDT |

I worked as a social worker in Manhattan's Jewish Home and Hospital for the elderly for two years many moons ago and adored it.  

Developmentally, it is perfectly normal for this demographic to disdain change - to the point where it would be abnormal for them not to.  Opposing change is a pretty handy way to feel some control at a vulnerable time, I can empathize and do.  Pointing out developmental norms is not condescending - not doing so it.  In general, teens can be impulsive, seniors become more religious and hate change - et cetera.  

They also consistently receive the best and most expensive care of any demographic in the US - spending much more than they ever pu ... view full comment

08/07/2009 - 1:18pm EDT |

They may be all secret proponents -- I doubt it, to be honest, but I guess there's a a lot of willingness to approve of it in the abstract -- but nobody is PROPOSING it.  There is some requirement to deal with reality, if you're engaged in political debate.

Americans are skeptical of government but they also keep wanting government to intervene to fix stuff.  And that's ok.  Some stuff can't be done by private enterprise, no matter how much "the market" is being invoked like a minor deity.

08/07/2009 - 1:30pm EDT |

Why don't you really look at the facts then dtoh?

If you so distrust "motives" and other emotionally based criteria for judging such a complicated issue, then by all means research facts - check out and actually read reports from the CBO, read health care policy blogs you trust, talk to real players on both sides, demand facts not hysteria from the party you seem to trust (how did you feel about Medicare D under Bush, BTW? 500 billion and counting for that gem).  

How would a system develop here in the US in its own unique way?  What would you like to see? What works? What doesn't? DO you think health care inflation is sustainable?  Do you think capping insurance rate ... view full comment

08/07/2009 - 1:34pm EDT |

Seeing a bunch of senior citizen rail against "government healthcare" is the best part of this farce.  Let's face facts: seniors are selfish and easily scared.  The rest of this is just conversation.

08/07/2009 - 6:29pm EDT |

Wandre,

My post was merely to comment on why we are seeing such a strong backlash from seniors and other groups.

As to my own views, I've posted them before, but I believe we have two major problems in the U.S..

1) The first is lack of insurance coverage, it's a big problem but not as big as it is made out to be.

2) As a society, we are over-allocating resources to heath care. (I.e we are consuming too much health care and as a result we as a society are spending more than we should.)

I do not believe.

1) That we have poor quality health care in the U.S. I think it is superior to virtually every other country especially those that have single payor systems.

2) That there is any significant number ... view full comment

08/07/2009 - 8:00pm EDT |

30 years, eh, dtoh?  In that case why does your solution/proposition #1 ("a required annual examination") contradicted by your solution/proposition #2 ("no questions asked")?  I mean, that's enough time to iron out the wrinkles, ne'est-ce pas?

As for the rest of your assertions, either the evidence is against them or they are non-arguments, e.g. the famous one about the quality of medical treatment in the U.S., which nobody is denying (didn't we go through this already a week or so ago?)

08/07/2009 - 8:33pm EDT |

Oh, I've just noticed, in the rush I forgot to edit the other part of the sentence:  "is your solution/proposition #1 . . . ?" not "does your . . . . ?"  Apologies.

08/07/2009 - 8:49pm EDT |

Assume for the sake of discussion the Administration and the Congress discover there is insufficient support for "comprehensive_ healthcare reform, however structured; presumably because a majority oppose, rightly or wrongly, tinkering with the coverages they have now and/or the taxes they pay now.  Are there no meaningful improvements the public would support?

Start with Medicaid.  Is there nothing more we can do to encourage, educate, help those who are eligible but not enrolled to enroll?  Can we do nothing more to encourage the development and staffing of "urgi-care" clinics to deliver more care to Medicaid enrollees in environments other than emergency rooms ... view full comment

08/07/2009 - 9:11pm EDT |

Irony,

The physical would not be a requirement for enrolling in the basic insurance plan. It would be a required benefit of the plan. For other stuff you would have to be over the deductible before the insurance pays, but the physical gets paid for no matter what. This helps to insure that everyone is getting good preventative care.

As for the quality of care, the only arguments ever cited for poor quality in the U.S. are infant mortality and life expectancy at birth. I think it had been shown that these are fully explained by factors (traffic fatalities, etc.) that have nothing to do with birth. The available data that do have a relationship with the quality of health care (i.e. survival rate ... view full comment

08/07/2009 - 9:21pm EDT |

Isernoff,

Just a couple of comments on Medicaid.

1) If you are on Medicaid you don't have to go to an emergency room to get care. It pays for regular visits to doctors, clinics, etc.

2) There are three main reasons people do not enroll in Medicaid. First, if they aren't sick or don't have a medical problem there is no reason to so. You can easily enroll after you get sick. Second, most hospitals are non-profit community or city hospitals. If you go to one of these you usually get treatment even if you don't pay for it. If it is expensive treatment, the hospital you usually get you enrolled so they can get reimbursed. If not, the hospitals don't bother. Third in some states, there are state prog ... view full comment

08/07/2009 - 9:58pm EDT |

I didn't think I wasn't being civil, dtoh, but I apologize if I went too sharp in my remark.  A certain amount of rough-and-tumble is expected  on TNR, however, and most regulars know where the parameters are.  But I have to say that I remain confused about the original contradiction and your explanation/resoluton of same.  If your annual examination is required not only as preventative care but as a qualification to remain in the basic plan, how is that "no questions asked."  I mean, I'm not saying that you can't have a plan with a required examination but the requirement has usually some other aspect than pure altruism.

Unless what you are saying is that e ... view full comment

08/07/2009 - 11:09pm EDT |

Irony,

So what I am proposing is that the annual physical be a legally mandated benefit for the basic plan and it can not be used to refuse insurance. Everyone would be required to enroll in a basic plan and every insurer would be legally required to offer one.

To elaborate a little further, you require the basic plans to have high deductibles because this helps to restrain the rise in medical costs. It's not perfect but it helps and maybe it helps a lot.

My objection to single payor is twofold. First it requires the payor to set pricing which in effect puts the government in the role of allocating medical resources. I don't think the government is very good at this because it's very complicate ... view full comment

08/08/2009 - 10:26am EDT |

dtoh - thank you for your response.

Although, I didn't see many of my questions answered directly.  After 30 years, I honestly think you'd have good answers. Again -  do you think health insurance inflation is sustainable or tied to  outcomes in any way? Have you ever seen any proof that caps on damages lower health insurance premiums (check out New Jersey and Texas on that and let me know if you've seen anything else anywhere)? What are your thoughts on the Kaiser model (which I think is terrific)?  Is there a state whose system works in a way you prefer?  

Also, as a social worker, I would dearly love to see how this suggestion of yours would work and who would decid ... view full comment

08/08/2009 - 10:33am EDT |

My own personal experiences of the British and German systems is that they are very good, and the German system is a regulated insurance model rather than single payor.  I had no complaints with the British system, however, but that was back in the late 70s and I was never in hospital under it.  My experience of the German system was very positive.

I agree that wait time is a resource allocation, but (a) every system needs such allocation, and (b) in most cases a wait time is not a problem -- I don't believe that in the UK or France or wherever real emergency cases are fobbed off by insurance companies, as they are here, or treated and then hit with crippling bills afterward.

I'm gla ... view full comment

08/08/2009 - 11:02am EDT |

Sarah Palin: "Obama Wants to Kill My Baby!"

08/08/2009 - 4:38pm EDT |

Thanks dtohmatsu for the information on Medicaid.  Thanks also to you, ironyroad and others for a most interesting thread.

I was struck by wandreycer1's note that her Manhattan physician no longer accepts insurance.  Have heard the same from my daughter, son-in-law and sister-in-law in Manhattan (whose Ob/Gyn delivered her last baby early in the Reagan administration, but wants cash only--lots-- for current gynocological  exams).  Down here in "God's Waiting Room" we haven't seen that, but more and more Internists are setting up boutique practices.  Glad to accept Medicare and the high option supplements from the alte cockers.  But practice is now limit ... view full comment

08/08/2009 - 4:38pm EDT |

Thanks dtohmatsu for the information on Medicaid.  Thanks also to you, ironyroad and others for a most interesting thread.

I was struck by wandreycer1's note that her Manhattan physician no longer accepts insurance.  Have heard the same from my daughter, son-in-law and sister-in-law in Manhattan (whose Ob/Gyn delivered her last baby early in the Reagan administration, but wants cash only--lots-- for current gynocological  exams).  Down here in "God's Waiting Room" we haven't seen that, but more and more Internists are setting up boutique practices.  Glad to accept Medicare and the high option supplements from the alte cockers.  But practice is now limit ... view full comment

08/08/2009 - 5:28pm EDT |

Wandrey,

Let me try to respond to your questions.

1. Health insurance inflation. As long as heath care costs keep going up, the cost of insurance will keep going up. As we become more affluent we tend to spend (and want to spend) more of our income on health care. Maybe we'll hit some medical breakthroughs where we can stay healthy for much lower costs, but I don't think health care inflation will go away. That being said, I do think that spending is rising faster than it should. High deductible insurance policies have the potential to reduce the RATE of growth of spending, but I still think spending will rise faster than inflation generally, but that this is not necessarily a bad thing if it ... view full comment

08/08/2009 - 5:47pm EDT |

Irony,

Rationing. I agree its needed, but I think you need to and can minimize the amount of rationing that takes place and rely more heavily instead on a market mechanism, which is one of the reasons I favor a high deductible minimum care plan. Under this type of plan, most routine non threatening care below the deductible would be priced and allocated through the normal interaction of consumers and providers. In addition, if the basic plan was defined not to include things like private rooms or non-generic drugs, then the pricing and allocation of private rooms and branded drugs would rely more on a market mechanism.

Sorry for incorrectly suggesting that you believe health quality is bad in ... view full comment

08/10/2009 - 12:47pm EDT |

dtohmatsu:

I have noticed that you frequently make claims such as " I think it [US healthcare] is superior to virtually every other country especially those that have single payor systems."

What is the data that you are basing this claim upon?

"The available data that do have a relationship with the quality of health care (i.e. survival rates for cancer, stroke, etc) all show that the U.S. provides better health care."

Actually since survival rates are really meaningless when compared to mortality rates, the data shows no such thing.  People "survive" in the US longer, because conditions are often found earlier, we as do perform more regular screenings.  H ... view full comment

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