A Reminder About Filibuster Math

With Joe Lieberman and, now, Evan Bayh threatening to support Republican filibusters of health care reform, it's worth taking a moment to contemplate what that would mean in terms of majority rule--or lack thereof.

By most accounts, there are five non-Republican senators who might support a filibuster if reform includes a strong public option. The five are Evan Bayh, Mary Landreiu, Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, and Ben Nelson. Assume, as a worst case scenario, all five were to follow through on the threat. According to TNR's crack research team, the forty-five senators standing in the way of an up-or-down vote would represent 38.7 percent of the population.

Bayh, in explaining his position, said that he considers a vote for cloture--that is, a vote to end a filibuster--the equivalent of voting for a bill. Fine. He should also be reminded that filibustering reform would mean thwarting the will of a majority of senators representing no less than 61 percent of the population.

COMMENTS (6)

10/28/2009 - 8:45pm EDT |

So Gibbs was right on.

10/28/2009 - 8:50pm EDT |

Most recent poll from Mr. Lieberman's home state of Connecticut has support for the public option at 68% for to 21%. Lieber, we get it, your pissed Mccain lost the election. Lieber, we get it, your in the pocket of the drug of Connecticut. Must you make it so obvious?

10/29/2009 - 8:05am EDT |

This makes me think of the decade before the Civil War, when from 1848 to 1858, pro-slavery Southerners fought and won a series of titanic legislative battles in Congress, but each "victory" achieved only theoretical gains for abstract principles rather than any concrete extension of their interests, and at the cost of destroying both major political parties and with them Southerners' ability to influence national leadership.

Which gets me back to the judicial filibuster crisis of 2005-2006. The Gang of 14 prevented the Republican leadership from using the "nuclear option" to end the filibusters by majority vote, and thereby preserved the minority's "right" to filibuster. Except that in orde ... view full comment

10/29/2009 - 9:59am EDT |

So what's the point in calling small-state senators out on their parochialism? Isn't that what the composition of the Senate and the filibuster rule are all about? If I were Blanche Lincoln or Ben Nelson, I would take it as a point of pride that I decided to block legislation that might be popular in large states and big cities but that is not so popular with my own consituents. I would guess that such a strategy would have no electoral downside. Joe Lieberman, of course, is another matter entirely.

Rhubarbs, agree with you completely on the filibuster. It is really time for it to go. Unfortunately, the Democrats won't threaten to abolish it just as the health care bills come to a vote ... view full comment

10/29/2009 - 2:46pm EDT |

Rhubarbs said: "It is a reactionary tool, and as such any member of a progressive party should be more than happy to see the filibuster weakened, even at the expense of some short-term procedural advantage."

I agree completely. The filibuster makes the US Senate an even more conservative (as in 'change-averse') body than it would otherwise be, which is saying a lot. This is occasionally handy for progressives, but over the long run is more harmful than helpful. Next time conservatives want to get rid of the thing, for gosh sakes let them.

10/29/2009 - 2:48pm EDT |

Hmm -- guess I said pretty much the same thing as wildboy. Well, it can't be said too often.

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