I don't want to get too Noam-y here, but I love Dave Leonhardt's new column raising--if not quite endorsing--the possibility that current economic pessimism is overstated, and that another boom could be hiding around the corner. In particular I find this compelling:
When Bill Clinton convened a conference in the dark economic days after his 1992 election, some of the country’s top economists flew to Little Rock, Ark., to share their vision for the future. As Rahm Emanuel, now the White House chief of staff, likes to point out, they didn’t spend much time talking about the Internet. They could not see the dot-com boom coming.
It'd be dumb to bet on another dot-com style boom. But charts and graphs do tend to overlook big unexpected events. (And that can cut both ways: a big terrorist attack right now would do some rather nasty things to the stock market.)
The same goes for politics. Bill Clinton was finished--until Newt Gingrich was. George W. Bush opposed nation building until he became a nation builder. September 11 led to a permanent Republican majority until Iraq and Obama led to a permanent Democratic majority, which now seems to be fraying. Who knows what's coming tomorrow? The future is a roulette wheel. Thus ends dorm room bull session.
P.S. I seem to be on Twitter now. You can find me at @crowleytnr.
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COMMENTS (3)
Only predicting the past is more problematic than predicting the furture. But the greatest minds still belong to those ever prescient pundits intent on predicting the present.
To wit:
They predict the economy now is still a bottomless pit once you leave Wall Street.
They predict either the Democrats or the Republicans are to blame.
They predict the Obama economic team changes the very definition of the word change. And the word audacity.
They predict shoveling out words about the economy here still beats working for a living.
They predict the suckers on Main Street get easier and easier to piss on.
They predict the Boston Red Sox win the World Series today.
gw
Only predicting the past is more problematic than predicting the furture. But the greatest minds still belong to those ever prescient pundits intent on predicting the present.
To wit:
They predict the economy now is still a bottomless pit once you leave Wall Street.
They predict either the Democrats or the Republicans are to blame.
They predict the Obama economic team changes the very definition of the word change. And the word audacity.
They predict shoveling out words about the economy here still beats working for a living.
They predict the suckers on Main Street get easier and easier to piss on.
They predict the Boston Red Sox win the World Series today.
gw
Michael, in the immortal words of Genesis (the band, not the book):
I will follow you - will you follow me?
@andydaglas
Michael, in the immortal words of Genesis (the band, not the book):
I will follow you - will you follow me?
@andydaglas
Brilliant.
As any scientist can tell you, the past does not predict the future. Chance and random events rule all.
Brilliant.
As any scientist can tell you, the past does not predict the future. Chance and random events rule all.