Pew Shocker: 61 Percent Would Bomb Iran If Talks Fail

Woah. I find this new Pew poll very surprising, and frankly even a little hard to believe*:

The public approves of direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, although most Americans are not hopeful the talks will succeed. And a strong majority (61%) says that it is more important to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means taking military action. Far fewer (24%) say it is more important to avoid a military conflict with Iran, if it means that the country may develop nuclear weapons.

At first I wondered if this was a result of responses from people who haven't been paying much attention, and thus may not appreciate the consequences of attacking Iran. But no: The poll also finds that "comparable majorities of those who have heard a lot about the dispute over Iran's nuclear program (64%), and those have heard little or nothing about this (59%), say it is more important to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means using military force."

Am I missing something in the topline data? If not, this is pretty stunning.

* Pew does excellent work, to be clear, or I wouldn't even link. But sometimes polls get it wrong.

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COMMENTS (8)

10/06/2009 - 12:06pm EDT |

What are the consequences of doing nothing, i.e. allowing Iran to gain a nuclear bomb? A lot of people must think that's worse than any consequences of bombing Iran.

10/06/2009 - 12:35pm EDT |

Why is this stunning? Most Americans remember the Hostage crisis and how that psycho regime held our diplomats for 444 days. Ahmedouchebag was a member of that generation who considered that a great victory over us. The thought of that shithead getting access to a bomb scares me a lot more than the blowback from our taking out the program. I don't think we are anywhere near that point, they would have to test it first and only if they had a test should we overwhelmingly attack.

10/06/2009 - 12:56pm EDT |

I hear John McCain coming, humming that song to himself . . .

I think, though, that the respondents are presumably also people who supported the Iranian demonstrators during the summer. I don't think they understand that bombing Iran is not at all guaranteed to be merely surgical strikes that only take out weapons facilities without harming civilians.

10/06/2009 - 1:07pm EDT |

Irony, see Balckie's comment above. Americans don't give one rat's ass about Iranian civilians - at least not 61% of them.

As you know, I think bombing Iran would be a mistake, BUT.... if we're going to do it, it must be a sustained campaign over 2-3 weeks, 24/7, and go after not just suspected nuke development sites, but also Iran's military and the IRGC. In for a dime, etc.

10/06/2009 - 1:43pm EDT |

I guess everyone's forgetting that the new site is impenetrable short of a ground invasion. They're going to get the bomb. Go build a bomb shelter in your yard if it'll make you feel better, but there's nothing we can really do about it.

10/06/2009 - 3:24pm EDT |

butchie, I agree, broadly speaking. Certainly (fwiw) I'm temperamentally inclined to agree with you that, if the bad day comes, we have to manage it properly and a "polite," minimalist air campaign is useless: pussyfooting around can end up neither hitting the appropriate targets nor keeping the civilian population from harm.

Nevertheless, I see so many major problems if it ever happened -- not least of which would be massive danger to whatever troops we have left in Iraq and elsewhere in the region and an unleashing of Iranian-sponsored terrorism in the Europe and even here -- that I very much hope we can solve this another way.

But I still think there is something awry with our thinking -- ... view full comment

10/07/2009 - 2:53pm EDT |

Nothing surprising here: Constantly talking about Iran as an actual exitential threat to Murrica is what is driving this number. The average person equates the Iranian regime acquiring a nuke with an exploding nuke in Rolla, MO.

As for me, come back and talk to me about Iran when they develop an ICBM or MIRV, until then they are some other country's problem.

10/07/2009 - 2:53pm EDT |

*existential threat

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