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Reinhold Niebuhr at TNR
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COMMENTS (1)
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Fareed Zakaria [http://www.newsweek.com/id/219380/page/1] already provided the logic for this, writing: "...crucial judgments that have to be made involve what the troops will do and how much of Afghanistan to cover."
But I doubt this can be the end game for counterinsurgency and the military won't give the OK to leave unless low population, but volatile areas, are secure. We can wait for the Afghan army or police to complete a counterinsurgency in the non urban areas but it's unlikely the tribal history of the country will allow federal control. This isn't Little Rock and Ike.
So...without a population that has the desire and means to enforce their national integrity, Taliban or al Qae ... view full comment
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Fareed Zakaria [http://www.newsweek.com/id/219380/page/1] already provided the logic for this, writing: "...crucial judgments that have to be made involve what the troops will do and how much of Afghanistan to cover."
But I doubt this can be the end game for counterinsurgency and the military won't give the OK to leave unless low population, but volatile areas, are secure. We can wait for the Afghan army or police to complete a counterinsurgency in the non urban areas but it's unlikely the tribal history of the country will allow federal control. This isn't Little Rock and Ike.
So...without a population that has the desire and means to enforce their national integrity, Taliban or al Qaeda won't need to attack the urban areas. They can conduct their own fight for hearts and minds ( pitch in for poppy picking) and wait us out. Two or three years for them is like waiting for a parking space. Eight years went by fast for them.
No, a plan which doesn't promise a conclusion by '12 means Obama will be kicking a can down the road and he'll have to pick it up eventually. The best decision now must account for more than the near term political and military consequences. He needs this fixed more than he needs a popular plan (now). As tough as the latter is, anything less than a plan to fix will haunt.
I agree that Obama will have to consider the "intangible effect" of any scenario, because he'll own the situation in three years.
But he knows that. If we think he's facing a lot of heat in the fall of '09, it won't compare to what a less good plan may mean in the middle of '12. I'm not sure this compromise will promise a final curtain before Obama is running again.
In fact, I'm certain we have another act or two...
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