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The news from CNN's John King that I posted on earlier--namely that McCain's top people think Colorado is probably unwinnable--has a lot of folks scratching their heads. Mark Halperin paraphrases King:
[King] Says the campaign's "risky strategy" is counting on Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and a comeback in Pennsylvania.
Fair enough. Here is the thing, though: This list is slightly misleading. If McCain comes back in Pennsylvania, he does not need to win Virginia. And if he does not come back in Pennsylvania, then it's game over for him. In other words, Virginia does not matter any more in this scenario. Considering the recent polling in the state, that could have been the McCain campaign's calculation. Admittedly, the polling in Pennsylvania does not look good either. And because these states tend to be on a rough spectrum, I don't quite understand why McCain thinks he can win PA but not VA or CO (or, to put it more clearly, it is hard to imagine him winning PA but losing VA). Regardless, if for whatever reason the McCainiacs think they are in deep trouble in Virginia, the push for Pennsylvania allows them to--in essence--ignore Old Dominion.
--Isaac Chotiner
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COMMENTS (10)
They must have some pretty radical internal polling data if they think they can win Pennsylvania.
They must have some pretty radical internal polling data if they think they can win Pennsylvania.
If McCain wins PA, he does not necessarily need to win VA, because he can get to 273 by winning Nevada instead. Is that what you're assuming here? I just don't think that goes without saying, since it's on that list and Obama has a slight lead there as of now.
If McCain wins PA, he does not necessarily need to win VA, because he can get to 273 by winning Nevada instead. Is that what you're assuming here? I just don't think that goes without saying, since it's on that list and Obama has a slight lead there as of now.
Pa. has been trending bluer and bluer. They think the Pennsyltucky areas will carry them, but while it covers a lot of area, it has few people. Keep pissing money away in Pa. McCain.
Pa. has been trending bluer and bluer. They think the Pennsyltucky areas will carry them, but while it covers a lot of area, it has few people. Keep pissing money away in Pa. McCain.
Maybe they think that Obama's lead in Colorado, while smaller, is more cemented, and that Pennsylvania might be more susceptible to the shitty tactics (or is it "strategy"?) they plan on deploying in the little time remaining. There's a hilarious story on Nate Silver's website in which someone is going door to door to find out how people are voting. A woman answers the door, and says, let me ask my husband. "Who are we voting for?" The husband yells back from another room, "The n---er!" Perhaps McCain thinks the n-word-user vote is soft for Obama and is more localized in PA than CO. Just a thought....
Maybe they think that Obama's lead in Colorado, while smaller, is more cemented, and that Pennsylvania might be more susceptible to the shitty tactics (or is it "strategy"?) they plan on deploying in the little time remaining. There's a hilarious story on Nate Silver's website in which someone is going door to door to find out how people are voting. A woman answers the door, and says, let me ask my husband. "Who are we voting for?" The husband yells back from another room, "The n---er!" Perhaps McCain thinks the n-word-user vote is soft for Obama and is more localized in PA than CO. Just a thought....
The only thing they have left is the hope that Applachian whites will give McCain massive numbers akin to Hillary's margin there, and allow him to carry OH and PA. How they'll try to get this is by playing the race card more and more explicitly. Is there any other way to explain McCain saying Obama will turn the IRS into a welfare agency? They're drumming this John Lewis non-story, desperately hoping the media will turn it into a racial thing. We'll hear from Rev. Wright soon enough.
The only thing they have left is the hope that Applachian whites will give McCain massive numbers akin to Hillary's margin there, and allow him to carry OH and PA. How they'll try to get this is by playing the race card more and more explicitly. Is there any other way to explain McCain saying Obama will turn the IRS into a welfare agency? They're drumming this John Lewis non-story, desperately hoping the media will turn it into a racial thing. We'll hear from Rev. Wright soon enough.
This is an unimpressive country that's on the verge of changing course, of doing something very impressive. Can we do it?
This is an unimpressive country that's on the verge of changing course, of doing something very impressive. Can we do it?
McCain can win OH, PA, and FL and lose the election if he loses VA, IA, NV, NM, and CO. This is plausible.
McCain can win OH, PA, and FL and lose the election if he loses VA, IA, NV, NM, and CO. This is plausible.
Might it be slightly easier to flip Pennsylvania if Tom Ridge were on the ticket?
Might it be slightly easier to flip Pennsylvania if Tom Ridge were on the ticket?
McCain may give up on Colorado and try to pick off Obama's old primary bugaboo, Pennsylvania, and its lush bounty of 21 electoral votes.
McCain may give up on Colorado and try to pick off Obama's old primary bugaboo, Pennsylvania, and its lush bounty of 21 electoral votes.
Daily Intel said "lush bounty." Heh.
Daily Intel said "lush bounty." Heh.