Dave Weigel's dispatch from NY-23 last night describes the evolving message of the Hoffman camp:
Hours before the polls closed, Hoffman backers were echoing the pundits’ spin–this race would be a referendum on President Obama, and a victory for Hoffman would put the brakes on health care reform by making Democrats worry about challenges to their re-elections in 2010. As a Hoffman victory became more and more remote, the rhetoric changed. The message became the message of two weeks ago. This election wasn’t about showing Republicans that conservatives could win. It was about showing Republicans that they couldn’t win without conservatives.
The irony, of course, is that the race didn't show any such thing. Insofar as it demonstrated anything--and the last week or so was chaotic enough that one could easily maintain it didn't--the message was exactly the opposite of what the Hoffmanites claim. Had Dede Scozzafava stayed in the race, and lost, then perhaps the takeaway would be that Republicans can't win without conservatives. But given that she dropped out, bequeathing the party a head-to-head Hoffman-Owens race, the only remotely intelligible reading of Hoffman's loss is that Republicans can't win without moderates.
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COMMENTS (2)
On top of which this was a Republican seat before, so didn't the Dem's majority in the House actually increase?
Yesterday seemed pretty good to me, the only real disappointment has to be Virginia, but Deeds was getting crushed in polls well before, so it's wasn't a real surprise.
On top of which this was a Republican seat before, so didn't the Dem's majority in the House actually increase?
Yesterday seemed pretty good to me, the only real disappointment has to be Virginia, but Deeds was getting crushed in polls well before, so it's wasn't a real surprise.
Republicans shot themselves in the foot by not having an open primary. If Dede had won that, then Hoffman would have had to have been viewed as a spoiler by running as a Conservative, otherwise then the Republicans would have had to have said back room nominations are bad, unless they are hardcore conservative. Unlikely even for them, and Dede would have won the general. If Hoffman had won the primary, he also likely would have won the general. I doubt he would have won that though, since he had no money, no name recognition, and didn't even live in the district.
It will be curious to see who runs against Owen next year, but since it will just be one of 435 few will care. They seem to re-elec ... view full comment
Republicans shot themselves in the foot by not having an open primary. If Dede had won that, then Hoffman would have had to have been viewed as a spoiler by running as a Conservative, otherwise then the Republicans would have had to have said back room nominations are bad, unless they are hardcore conservative. Unlikely even for them, and Dede would have won the general. If Hoffman had won the primary, he also likely would have won the general. I doubt he would have won that though, since he had no money, no name recognition, and didn't even live in the district.
It will be curious to see who runs against Owen next year, but since it will just be one of 435 few will care. They seem to re-elect incumbents so maybe Owen is a possible keeper.
The only lesson I get from this is to have a primary for open seats.