In today’s Washington Post, Dan Balz makes the case that August was a disaster for the Obama administration and health care reform. I believed that before I read Balz’s column--in fact, there can’t be anybody who follows politics who doesn’t believe August was terrible for the Democrats. But Balz’s column paradoxically made me think that perhaps we all had it wrong.
Obviously, August saw a decline in Obama’s approval ratings and public confidence in health care reform. But public support is not the only variable here. I believed that the hopes of a health care bill that attracts the support of non-Maine Republicans were illusory all along. The ultimate endgame entailed getting all the Democrats to pull together and pass something.
Of course, Democrats didn’t want to do this. They wanted bipartisan support, mainly for political cover. Moderate Democrats won’t do this until it becomes clear that the Republican Party is dead set against reform, completely in hoc to its right-wing base, and not negotiating seriously. The danger is that Republicans would maintain the façade of reasonableness and interest in negotiation long enough to either run out the clock, or force the Democrats themselves to appear partisan if they decide to go it alone.
In that sense, August moved the ball pretty far down the field. A month or two ago, conventional wisdom demanded that the Democrats compromise with Republicans. Now the conventional wisdom has started to recognize that this is impossible. Balz, as reliable a barometer as any, mentions the “fictitious death panels” that dominated the August debate. More importantly, he writes:
"The cause of bipartisanship moved into reverse during August, though not because of anything Obama did or didn't do. In this case, two Republicans who the administration had hoped could be leaders in helping to work out a bipartisan bill [Chuck Grassley and Mike Enzi] unexpectedly turned harshly partisan in their rhetoric."
If the conventional wisdom recognizes the reality that securing Chuck Grassley's support for health care reform is futile, then Democrats will have a much easier time going ahead by themselves, or with Olympia Snowe. Yes, health care reform has lost some popularity. But Democrats are past the point of no return. They have no choice but to pass a bill, and the Republicans have done them a favor by showing their hand.
Posted on both The Plank and The Treatment
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COMMENTS (12)
The ultimate silver-lining scenario, Jon, but it may turn out to be true. We should have a clue within about two weeks, if moderate Dems unexpectedly start tacking back to the president's position.
It's all complicated, of course, by the right wing freak show that will summon the crazies in force and accuse those moderates of, horrors!, naked partisanship. Also, countless lobbyist dollars have already been sunk on those weak-kneed senators, who (presumably) would now have to renege on their backroom promises.
That's not to say the White House doesn't have a few arrows in its quiver... 13 million-strong email list, anyone? In the end, Chait is probably right that Republican's extreme intransi ... view full comment
The ultimate silver-lining scenario, Jon, but it may turn out to be true. We should have a clue within about two weeks, if moderate Dems unexpectedly start tacking back to the president's position.
It's all complicated, of course, by the right wing freak show that will summon the crazies in force and accuse those moderates of, horrors!, naked partisanship. Also, countless lobbyist dollars have already been sunk on those weak-kneed senators, who (presumably) would now have to renege on their backroom promises.
That's not to say the White House doesn't have a few arrows in its quiver... 13 million-strong email list, anyone? In the end, Chait is probably right that Republican's extreme intransigence has made it easier for Dems to come back to the fold.
You gotta love conventional wisdom in the media don't you? After all, the folks in the media who decide what that is are the same folks who get to decide later what it is not.
And what it both is and is not now is this: The left hand shoving the right hand to all the hands in the health care industry eager to shake them.
August was a fantastic month for them, wasn't it? And not just rhetorically.
And now conventional wisdom has to go on pretending it really doesn't have a clue why.
Oh boy, another inglorious day in the Fourth Estate for the same old bastards!!
He said with a knowing wink and a nod.
george
You gotta love conventional wisdom in the media don't you? After all, the folks in the media who decide what that is are the same folks who get to decide later what it is not.
And what it both is and is not now is this: The left hand shoving the right hand to all the hands in the health care industry eager to shake them.
August was a fantastic month for them, wasn't it? And not just rhetorically.
And now conventional wisdom has to go on pretending it really doesn't have a clue why.
Oh boy, another inglorious day in the Fourth Estate for the same old bastards!!
He said with a knowing wink and a nod.
george
This reflects Obama's MO on "bipartisanship" generally: He makes a public show of taking Republicans at their word and offers them enough substance that any independent voter would understand that Republicans must either vote for the bill or reveal themselves to have been bullshitting all along. Then, because Republicans don't actually believe anything they say and are, in fact, bullshitting about everything, Republicans vote "no" en masse and complete the kabuki of Obama attempting to transcend party only to be stymied by party-above-country conservatives. Yes, Obama's popularity has dropped -- but it's dropped exactly as you'd expect it to, considering the state of the economy. GOP popula ... view full comment
This reflects Obama's MO on "bipartisanship" generally: He makes a public show of taking Republicans at their word and offers them enough substance that any independent voter would understand that Republicans must either vote for the bill or reveal themselves to have been bullshitting all along. Then, because Republicans don't actually believe anything they say and are, in fact, bullshitting about everything, Republicans vote "no" en masse and complete the kabuki of Obama attempting to transcend party only to be stymied by party-above-country conservatives. Yes, Obama's popularity has dropped -- but it's dropped exactly as you'd expect it to, considering the state of the economy. GOP popularity, already low, has been kept on the mat, particularly among independents, by the way they've played into Obama's "bipartisanship" jiujutsu. And, perhaps most importantly, the conventional wisdom is beginning to conform to Obama's preferred narrative of Democratic outreach and Republican bad faith.
I've already been more hagiographic than I intend, and so I don't mean the following analogy as a literal comparison between the two presidents. That said, it's worth remembering that over any given six-week span of the Lincoln presidency, his critics would have been justified in believing that he was a failure who was on the verge of losing the war, while his supporters would have been justified in believing that he was a milquetoast sellout who was getting his butt handed to him by his political opponents. Lincoln, however, was playing a long game, and both won the first reelection since Andrew Jackson 32 years previously and won the war on his preferred terms. I'm not saying that Obama is a modern-day Lincoln, but it does seem clear that like Lincoln he is playing a long game and his opponents are not.
Are the two Johnathans twins or the same person?? Are you guys also drinking the same "KOOL-AID" that Norm Ornstein must be consuming, who in an op ed piece also thought that August was just a fantastic month for the Democrats' health reform effort, and that the white house communication stratedgy of complete and utter confusion is just brillant. If this is what is passing as analysis on the Left, you guys are in more trouble than you think.
Let me bring up two points about how trying to pass a bill without any Republican support. First, neither the House or the Senate really has found a method to raise 1 trillion under CBO/Budget Committee pay-as-you-go rules. The House TriCommitt ... view full comment
Are the two Johnathans twins or the same person?? Are you guys also drinking the same "KOOL-AID" that Norm Ornstein must be consuming, who in an op ed piece also thought that August was just a fantastic month for the Democrats' health reform effort, and that the white house communication stratedgy of complete and utter confusion is just brillant. If this is what is passing as analysis on the Left, you guys are in more trouble than you think.
Let me bring up two points about how trying to pass a bill without any Republican support. First, neither the House or the Senate really has found a method to raise 1 trillion under CBO/Budget Committee pay-as-you-go rules. The House TriCommittee bill was getting about one half its scorable savings from the ways and means surtax on "wealthy" Americans, and probably another one humdred million over ten years from the public option utilizing Medicare statutory price controls. The sur tax was always problematic with the Blue Dog/Moderate Democrats for many reasons. But the simplest to understand is that they did not want to get "BTUed" (terminology from the passage of OBRA 93), knowing that this vote was suicidial because the Senate would never agree to this provision. After August, I think this provision for many moderate Democrats is now RADIOACTIVE. What about the White House tax provision which is still in the OMB mid session budget review -- capping the rate for deducitons. This was always a non starter with the Chairmen of the tax writing committees. What about a tax cap?? Never in the House! Get that one pass the labor unions who have the richest plans south of goldman sachs partners. Seems we got a problem here. And if you lose the public option or have to accept the Commerce Commitee version of a public opiton with "just Secretary negotiation" you probably lose another 75 to 100 million in scorable savings. The road map for a successful floor vote, therefore, is not that clear or transparent.
What about the Seante? Well without bipartisanship you have two choices --60 votes or reconciliation. Without Grassley and Enzi you will not get 60 votes. And bye the way where is the "magical" Finance Committee Bill which still does not ever seem to exist. How is it paid for?? Without Republican support the tax cap is a TOTAL NON STARTER. Plus most Democrats (Reed, Rockefeller, Brown, et. al.) hated any tax cap. O.K., what about reconciliaiton (the two bill stratedgy-- reconciliation for the entitlements and pay fors, and 60 votes for the insuance reform which would not pass the Byrd Rule.) Certainly possible. BUT -- both Conrad and Baucus have publically disadvowed this stratedgy, and even Senator Snowe has said publically she will not support this. Plus there are significant and many Byrd Rule problems leading to probably hundreds of points of order on the Senate Floor. And what about moderate Democratic Senataors -- will they support reconciliaiton. Finally, politically this stratedy is based on forcing health reform down the "public's throat" by using this procedure on a bill of this magnitude. Even if successful could lead to a tremendous backlash from the public. Therefore, not so easy.
"...But public support is not the only variable here..."
It may not be the only variable, but in a democracy, it's the only variable that counts. Midterms approacheth...
"...But public support is not the only variable here..."
It may not be the only variable, but in a democracy, it's the only variable that counts. Midterms approacheth...
sorry lawphd, but you will be proven wrong, the public option won't go through, instead it will be the co-op method which scores much, much lower since the capitalization costs will only be projected and not counted as actual. The health care bill will then pass, safeguards for Americans with pre-existing conditions will then be in place, the sky will not fall, there will be no death panels, and Republicans will be forced to eat shit.
sorry lawphd, but you will be proven wrong, the public option won't go through, instead it will be the co-op method which scores much, much lower since the capitalization costs will only be projected and not counted as actual. The health care bill will then pass, safeguards for Americans with pre-existing conditions will then be in place, the sky will not fall, there will be no death panels, and Republicans will be forced to eat shit.
lawphd = pwned
lawphd = pwned
"Even if successful could lead to a tremendous backlash from the public."
I find this remark a little curious, lawphd. Presumably if the success leads to better insurance coverage and health care provision for Americans, that also includes "the public," n'est-ce pas? I don't believe Obama wants to be judged by the skill with which the legislation was passed so much as by the improvements in the quality of life for our citizens.
If the health care reforms don't make our society a better place, then there will indeed be a backlash. But a backlash from Republicans and the people who think Medicare isn't a "government program" can be borne with equanimity, as it's going to come no matter what h ... view full comment
"Even if successful could lead to a tremendous backlash from the public."
I find this remark a little curious, lawphd. Presumably if the success leads to better insurance coverage and health care provision for Americans, that also includes "the public," n'est-ce pas? I don't believe Obama wants to be judged by the skill with which the legislation was passed so much as by the improvements in the quality of life for our citizens.
If the health care reforms don't make our society a better place, then there will indeed be a backlash. But a backlash from Republicans and the people who think Medicare isn't a "government program" can be borne with equanimity, as it's going to come no matter what happens.
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Yes, and one year ago Sarah Palin was going to sweep McCain past Obama and his pals.
Balz and anyone who begins to draw broad conclusions on any president's position based on his popularity in August of year one is either in need of anxiety meds, begging for attention or not a student of history.
Further, the GOP's numbers really suck and Democrats in congress are also viewed less favorably than Obama. The last time I checked, the Cut Off Your Nose strategy is about as useful as Let's Go To Jonestown and Take Over The World.
I may amend my "Do not bet against Barack Obama." and add, "Make sure you aren't using his cash to do it.".
Yes, Democrats need to protect their ... view full comment
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Yes, and one year ago Sarah Palin was going to sweep McCain past Obama and his pals.
Balz and anyone who begins to draw broad conclusions on any president's position based on his popularity in August of year one is either in need of anxiety meds, begging for attention or not a student of history.
Further, the GOP's numbers really suck and Democrats in congress are also viewed less favorably than Obama. The last time I checked, the Cut Off Your Nose strategy is about as useful as Let's Go To Jonestown and Take Over The World.
I may amend my "Do not bet against Barack Obama." and add, "Make sure you aren't using his cash to do it.".
Yes, Democrats need to protect their majority a year from now. But I'll wager their chances improve as they do what is necessary to boost his numbers even though his fame isn't at stake for years.
So I'd be damn sure I was in a safe Republican district or a hopeless Democrat before I ran against or from him. Even using those metrics, he should a secure majority and plod along for the next year. I also expect the GOP won't be able to prevent their entire Senate caucus from getting on his train. It won't take an advertising whiz to portray the benefits of having a hand in health care reform and blocking it in '09 won't have the same result for either party as in '94. More folks in each party have something to lose and fewer have nothing to lose. And toward the center, they will realize what they have to gain.
Low approval numbers now? Barack Obama probably has the safest job in town, no one has a hint of a hope of taking it from him and until he gets caught smoking I'll figure he has his situation under control.
Oh, I'll still take Obama in '12 and give you a field goal. Any takers?
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AP News headline: Big Speech: Obama wants control of health debate. Said Big Speech is scheduled for next Wednesday. The push has started, and we'll have a good idea in a couple of weeks if it is going to work.
If lawphd is correct, then it was a fool's errand to ever touch health care reform. No more than a handful of GOP votes were ever plausibly on the table. But I suspect that Obama would not have started down this road if he did not have a strategy for dealing with complete opposition from the GOP. Democrats are going to have to come together, and there are no guarantees.
AP News headline: Big Speech: Obama wants control of health debate. Said Big Speech is scheduled for next Wednesday. The push has started, and we'll have a good idea in a couple of weeks if it is going to work.
If lawphd is correct, then it was a fool's errand to ever touch health care reform. No more than a handful of GOP votes were ever plausibly on the table. But I suspect that Obama would not have started down this road if he did not have a strategy for dealing with complete opposition from the GOP. Democrats are going to have to come together, and there are no guarantees.
Very reassuring post, michael. I hope you are right.
Very reassuring post, michael. I hope you are right.
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scrubby wrote, "Very reassuring post, michael. I hope you are right.".
Thanks, now send it to fifty friends and tell them to...
Forget it. For now.
But remember who you have on your 'I told you so' list. There is some satisfaction if one appears to be winning, but having won has more value.
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scrubby wrote, "Very reassuring post, michael. I hope you are right.".
Thanks, now send it to fifty friends and tell them to...
Forget it. For now.
But remember who you have on your 'I told you so' list. There is some satisfaction if one appears to be winning, but having won has more value.
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