PrintFor several weeks I've been insisting that Charlie Crist is going to get crushed by Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate Republican primary. Last week Crist fell behind in a poll for the first time, and now he's down by double digits. The reason this outcome was so inevitable, aside from the trajectory, was that Crist was only being held up by vastly higher name recognition. The most grim news for Crist in the latest poll may not be his 14-point deficit but the fact that, among Republican primary voters who had an opinion of both candidates, Rubio leads by 50 (!) points. Rubio's lead is only going to grow.
Meanwhile, the Crist-as-independent notion I've been floating has finally broken through. Pollster Tony Fabrizio finds, "Based on his current standing in the GOP Senate Primary, Crist’s most viable path to the Senate appears to be running as an Independent." You read it here first.
COMMENTS (7)
Polls, data, drill-down tabs, pshaw! I don't need no stinkin' polls to look at that photo and tell you that no man with that kind of taste in ties will be elected to the Senate as a Republican. From any state. That tie right there is such an elegant statement that the fellow wearing it cannot possibly be seen as any kind of ordinary, pickup-driving man-of-the-people. When a guy has more dapper fashion sense than Barack "Silvio" Obama, he has no future in the Republican Party.
Polls, data, drill-down tabs, pshaw! I don't need no stinkin' polls to look at that photo and tell you that no man with that kind of taste in ties will be elected to the Senate as a Republican. From any state. That tie right there is such an elegant statement that the fellow wearing it cannot possibly be seen as any kind of ordinary, pickup-driving man-of-the-people. When a guy has more dapper fashion sense than Barack "Silvio" Obama, he has no future in the Republican Party.
For a little party balance, when LeRoy Collins, who as governor during the 1950s bravely sided in favor of desegregation of Florida schools, ran for Senate he was trounced in the Democratic primary. Charlie Crist is not the typical Republican in his day, as LeRoy Collins was not the typical Democrat in his day. Most Democrats who voted against Collins (or would have had they been old enough to vote at the time) realigned with the Republican Party, while those who supported Collins stayed in the party. For the moderate Republicans who support Crist, where do they realign?
For a little party balance, when LeRoy Collins, who as governor during the 1950s bravely sided in favor of desegregation of Florida schools, ran for Senate he was trounced in the Democratic primary. Charlie Crist is not the typical Republican in his day, as LeRoy Collins was not the typical Democrat in his day. Most Democrats who voted against Collins (or would have had they been old enough to vote at the time) realigned with the Republican Party, while those who supported Collins stayed in the party. For the moderate Republicans who support Crist, where do they realign?
I don't. I vote for Rubio in the general, and wish my guy had won. That is, if he doesn't. It's a little early for Charlie's obit.
Nice Leroy Collins reference, though.
I don't. I vote for Rubio in the general, and wish my guy had won. That is, if he doesn't. It's a little early for Charlie's obit.
Nice Leroy Collins reference, though.
"Made damned sure that Pilate washed his hands, and sealed his fate....pleased to meet you..."
I wouldn't rule Charlie out just yet, but then what do I know. I'm from Louisiana.
"Made damned sure that Pilate washed his hands, and sealed his fate....pleased to meet you..."
I wouldn't rule Charlie out just yet, but then what do I know. I'm from Louisiana.
As a Floridian, and a Republican, I feel the need to clarify what's going on down here. Yes, Rubio is further right than Crist. But, Charlie's problems are not due to the tea-partiers; nor are they due to his "embrace" of President Obama (in connection with Obama's stimulus program and its impact on Florida). Crist is a politician with no firm convictions. I smell a liberal hope that Charlie will run as an independent, in the hope that (like TR and Taft) the R vote will be split and the D, Meeks, will win. Fuggeddaboubit! Charlie is at least as likely to draw votes, as an independent, from Meeks as from Rubio. Rubio's record as leader of the Florida house, will withstand scrutiny; Char ... view full comment
As a Floridian, and a Republican, I feel the need to clarify what's going on down here. Yes, Rubio is further right than Crist. But, Charlie's problems are not due to the tea-partiers; nor are they due to his "embrace" of President Obama (in connection with Obama's stimulus program and its impact on Florida). Crist is a politician with no firm convictions. I smell a liberal hope that Charlie will run as an independent, in the hope that (like TR and Taft) the R vote will be split and the D, Meeks, will win. Fuggeddaboubit! Charlie is at least as likely to draw votes, as an independent, from Meeks as from Rubio. Rubio's record as leader of the Florida house, will withstand scrutiny; Charlie's, as governor, won't make it. Painful as it may be to TNR readers to hear, Rubio sounds like Jeb Bush, and Jeb was a popular governor.
True, lsernoff - Meeks has no chance regardless. But Charlie is catching hell for being a pragmatist. He's anti-tax, pro-gun and (sort of) pro-life. What more do our R brethren want in a Governor/Senator in these times?
I do think the hug will hurt Crist, and will be played ad nauseum all summer long. Primary's in August, and we'll have to put up with thousands of ads until then.
I'll vote for Crist. Then Rubio, if necessary.
True, lsernoff - Meeks has no chance regardless. But Charlie is catching hell for being a pragmatist. He's anti-tax, pro-gun and (sort of) pro-life. What more do our R brethren want in a Governor/Senator in these times?
I do think the hug will hurt Crist, and will be played ad nauseum all summer long. Primary's in August, and we'll have to put up with thousands of ads until then.
I'll vote for Crist. Then Rubio, if necessary.
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Everywhere I hear the sound of marching, charging feet, boy
Yes, you chose a lyric rich release ("Beggar's Banquet") & each one is a can't miss: "No Expectations","Dear Doctor", "Parachute Woman", "Jigsaw Puzzle","Street Fighting Man","Prodigal Son","Stray Cat Blues","Factory Girl","Salt of the Earth".
The shrinking base in both parties suggests that for the short term party identity may be more of a curse than a blessing. When nearly half of those surveyed in various polls express None Of The Above, it changes the meaning of loser in a primary. That is, the party apparatus may be effective in a primary but the second place finisher in either party could have a grea ... view full comment
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Everywhere I hear the sound of marching, charging feet, boy
Yes, you chose a lyric rich release ("Beggar's Banquet") & each one is a can't miss: "No Expectations","Dear Doctor", "Parachute Woman", "Jigsaw Puzzle","Street Fighting Man","Prodigal Son","Stray Cat Blues","Factory Girl","Salt of the Earth".
The shrinking base in both parties suggests that for the short term party identity may be more of a curse than a blessing. When nearly half of those surveyed in various polls express None Of The Above, it changes the meaning of loser in a primary. That is, the party apparatus may be effective in a primary but the second place finisher in either party could have a greater opportunity than ever to return in the general election as long as this cynical attitude prevails. While I haven't made up my mind on a nonpartisan blanket primary, the current dynamics probably mean the outcome would be anything but predictable using current models (but I'd defer to Nate Silver on that). In Florida it may not matter much how voters break out in the primary but several states may produce a 2nd place finisher from one party who is well positioned to take on the top two in the Fall.
With that in mind, a candidate (even in a closed primary) would do well to set their sights on that strategy from the beginning and get a head start running against the winner of either party.
Just thinking...
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