Stalemate

The situation in Afghanistan increasingly looks like Iraq did not too long ago. Not the actual political or military circumstances, of course, but the analysis and commentary. Phrases like "We’re entering a decisive period" and "It’s now or never" are being tossed around ominously as the debate over troop increases rages. One can hardly read an op-ed without being told that the situation is dire and that this is a critical time, perhaps even our Last Chance to Get It Right. Most notably, the report produced by General Stanley McChrystal announced that "the short-term fight will be decisive."

There is not a single Afghanistan myth more prevalent or more specious than this one. To be at a "critical juncture" implies that one side or the other is poised to decisively gain the upper hand and therefore to win. But the situation in Afghanistan is almost the exact opposite of that. I will likely have my pundit card revoked for saying so--nothing diverts attention like saying that a situation isn’t at a critical turning point--but it’s true. After eight years of fighting, two things seem clear: First, the insurgency does not have the capability to defeat U.S. forces or depose Afghanistan’s central government; and, second, U.S. forces do not have the ability to vanquish the insurgency. It’s true that the Taliban has gained ground in recent months, but, absent a full and immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops, it cannot retake sovereign control. This is not to say that Afghanistan isn’t unstable; it clearly is. That has been the case for eight years, however, and, in the absence of some shocking, unforeseen development, it could be true for another eight or 18 or 80 years. An increase of tens of thousands of troops will not change that fact, nor will subtle tactical changes. Rather than teetering on the edge of some imagined precipice, the situation in Afghanistan is at a virtual stalemate. Only by appropriately characterizing the current situation in Afghanistan can we begin to determine the best way to achieve our stated goals there.

Often when a crisis is invoked, it is to push a particular course of action, to make people believe that a recommended remedy must be undertaken immediately. In other words, warning of an impending crossroads can be a useful bullying mechanism, and that is what is happening now, as proponents of a broad-based counter-insurgency strategy confront those who favor a more focused counter-terrorism mission. Initially, the mission in Afghanistan was to depose a government that aided and abetted violent extremism, to destroy Al Qaeda to whatever extent possible, and to help establish a central government that would prevent the country from serving as a base and training ground for international terrorists. The first two aims have been largely accomplished: The Taliban is deposed, and Al Qaeda is in retreat, with many killed, others fleeing to Pakistan or beyond, and fewer than 100 fighters remaining in Afghanistan (according to recent government estimates). At some point in the public debate over Afghanistan, however, the idea of counter-terrorism became conflated with counter-insurgency, and the third goal took center stage.

It is true that maintaining a central government that will not aid and abet international terrorists is a critical strategic goal, but even a fairly limited troop deployment could prevent Kabul from falling to the Taliban. Retaking sovereign control would require the Taliban to engage inthe kind of set piece battles that insurgent forces consistently lose, and, as National Security Advisor Jim Jones recently told CNN, "I don't foresee the return of the Taliban, and I want to be very clear that Afghanistan is not in imminent danger of falling." Furthermore, it is by no means clear that even a Taliban return to power would create a safe haven for international terrorists; it is hard to imagine the Taliban happily inviting back the people who got many of them killed and the rest ousted from power, or for the United States to sit idly by even if the Taliban did pursue such a suicidal course of action. The question should be, then, how (or if) a troop increase would enhance our counter-terror operations.

Unfortunately, the McChrystal report is disappointingly oblique about this, instead declaring a need for "classic counterinsurgency operations" without precisely defining them. In fact, whereas counterinsurgency is often defined through a "clear, hold, and build" model of territorial control, followed by provision of legal order and goods and services, the report says the proposed strategy should instead focus on "the population." (The old hearts and minds objective!) The report proposes that allied troops shield the population from insurgent violence, corruption, and coercion. But, aside from the fact that allied troops cannot possibly protect the population from corruption, protecting the population from insurgent violence and coercion (whatever that means) would require hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops. General Petraeus’s own "Counterinsurgency Field Manual," while noting that force size calculations depend on the situation, acknowledges that "[t]wenty counterinsurgents per 1000 residents is often considered the minimum troop density required for effective [counterinsurgency] operations." Afghanistan, with a population estimated at 28.4 million, would require 568,000 troops under that model. Even more modest estimates suggest that a force sufficient to defeat the insurgency would require hundreds of thousands of troops. Retired General Dan McNeill, former U.S. commander in Afghanistan, recently suggested that Afghanistan would need a force of at least 400,000 to win. The idea that adding 40,000 troops to the roughly 100,000 American and NATO troops there now will produce a military victory over the insurgency is simply delusional, and does not reflect classic counterinsurgency doctrine.

If the situation is a virtual stalemate--that is, if it is not possible or realistic to send enough troops to ensure military victory, and similarly unlikely that the anti-government forces are capable of taking sovereign control--then two potential courses of action emerge. First, the status quo could be maintained. The United States could sustain its force levels, keeping enough troops to preserve the Karzai government and prevent terrorist havens but not enough to eliminate the insurgency; and the insurgency could keep fighting, never taking over the country but maintaining control of some localities. This is not necessarily a terrible option, but it would eventually become politically untenable for the United States, aside from the legitimate question of whether such a sustained effort would be the most effective use of resources for counterterrorism. The second possible outcome is political compromise.