Some liberal commentators have downplayed the effect of Barack Obama’s fundraising speech at a San Francisco fundraiser last week. But that’s wishful thinking. Along with the revelations about Obama’s pastor Jeremiah Wright, his remarks in San Francisco will haunt him not only in the upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, but also in the general election against John McCain, assuming he gets the Democratic nomination.
To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can’t carry Florida--and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win from 45 to 48 percent of the white working class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.
Some Democrats insist that Obama need not worry about these states because he will be able to make up for a defeat in Ohio or even Pennsylvania with a victory in Virginia or Colorado. But in Virginia, McCain will be able to draw upon coastal suburbanites closely tied to the military. These voters backed Democrats like Chuck Robb and Jim Webb, who are both veterans, but they may not go for Obama. And in the Southwest, McCain will be able to challenge Obama among Hispanics. So to win in November, Obama will have to win almost all of these heartland states. Which is a problem, because even before he uttered his infamous words about these voters “clinging” to guns, religion, abortion, and fears about free trade, Obama looked vulnerable in the region. A look at the white working class’s relationship with earlier Democratic candidates underscores the various reasons why.
Many white working class voters in these states used to be loyal Democrats. The last two successful Democratic presidential candidates, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, swept Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. Many of these voters have always been highly patriotic, church-going hunters who were skeptical about the benefits of trade and immigration and--what Obama did not mention--black political assertiveness. But they still distrust Republicans as the defenders of business and look up to Democrats (or at least some Democrats) as being more in tune with average Americans like themselves.
Democrats have won over these voters when their advantage on the economy has come to the fore. And they’ve lost these voters when their positions on the economy--or national security--were not sufficiently compelling to overcome the Republican advantage on social issues like abortion, gay marriage, or gun control. Why? Because with the exception of a few rabid single-issue voters, the white working class hasn’t simply displaced its economic anxiety, or bitterness, onto God, guns, and gay marriage; they’re actually quite concerned about the economy.
Historically, there are three circumstances in which Democrats have been able to win over these voters:
The Unacceptable Republican: Republicans have run candidates with whom white working class voters have not been able to identity--either because of their backgrounds, beliefs, or actions. In 2006 that was obviously true of Ohio gubernatorial candidate Ken Blackwell--an African American and a far right zealot--and Montana Senator Conrad Burns, who was linked to former super-lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
The Acceptable Democrat: The Democrats have sometimes run candidates in these states who are sufficiently moderate on guns, abortion, and religion to neutralize the Republican appeal on these issues. That was the case with Pennsylvania pro-life Democratic Senate candidate Bob Casey, who defeated incumbent Rick Santorum in 2006.
The Empathetic Democrat: The Democrats have run a candidate who can connect with these voters in spite of his or her beliefs on abortion and guns. Pollsters try to get at this by asking voters whether a candidate “cares about people like me.” Sometimes, voters will think a candidate cares about them because they think he is “one of them.” Bill Clinton, of course, was a genius at this. He could be the candidate of Hope, Arkansas, and Yale Law School. Other Democrats have succeeded because they have come off as a father (or mother) figure, who, although from the upper class, still cares about the average American.
If you look at the upcoming presidential election in this light, the Democratic prospects do not appear to be good. McCain is an acceptable Republican--a war hero and a reputed moderate. (His greatest inherent liability, which could make him unacceptable regardless of his ideas or background, is his age.) Both Democratic candidates, whatever their protestations, are seen as coming out of the party’s liberal wing on guns and abortion.
That leaves the possibility that these voters will see the Democratic candidate as either “one of them,” or as a father or mother figure who understands their plight. Both candidates clearly have problems on these scores, but Obama’s may be even more severe than Clinton’s. As an African American, he has one strike against him, as has become apparent even in the Democratic primary exit polls. He has tried to appear above race, but he will continually be reminded of his ties to Jeremiah Wright (and his not wearing a flag on his lapel, and his wife’s statements about not being “proud” of America) during a general election.
Obama comes from a modest background and has tried to appeal as a candidate of both Harvard Law School and Chicago’s Back-of-the-Yards, where he organized laid-off steel workers, but he hasn’t been able to pull it off. His manner, his tenor, and his diction are Harvard Law, and when he starts dropping his ‘g’s,” he sounds strained. And Obama is too young, and lacks the stature, to appear as a Franklin Roosevelt-style father figure.
Obama does have an astounding eloquence, and an ability to put a position across, but that eloquence has been reserved largely for anti-war and good-government positions. His stance against the war may resonate (though that will depend on whether McCain’s qualification as commander-in-chief trumps his unpopular stance on the war). But where McCain is most vulnerable and where voters are most likely to smile on a Democrat--on everyday economic issues--Obama’s heart doesn’t appear to be in it.
These difficulties were clear before Obama spoke in San Francisco, but they’re much more glaring now. In the speech, Obama appeared to say that Pennsylvania voters’ opposition to gun control or abortion or immigration or free trade was pathological--a product of what Marxist philosopher Herbert Marcuse once called “false consciousness.” On the other hand, he implied that when he voiced opposition to an issue like free trade--Obama has consistently hammered Clinton on her support for the North American Free Trade Agreement--he was simply pandering to these voters’ displaced anxieties. He was saying to these upscale San Francisco Democrats, “I am really one of you, and I am not one of them.”
There is even a slight chance that Obama’s words in San Francisco could cost him the nomination. Obama is almost certain to have more elected delegates in June than Hillary Clinton, but if he loses Pennsylvania by 15 percentage points (which is not out of the question), that could start a media firestorm around his candidacy that could contribute to other primary defeats and to superdelegate support for Clinton. It’s not likely to happen, but after Obama spoke his mind, and, perhaps, lost small-town voters’ hearts, in San Francisco, it has suddenly become conceivable.
John B. Judis is a senior editor at The New Republic and a Visiting Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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COMMENTS (219)
Finally, some common sense in Obamania. Obama's coy little game with pretending to be pro- or anti-free trade especially screws him with these, the 2nd most crucial (after hispanics in the southwest battleground states) voting demographic. If/when he stops preening and starts PERSUADING people to back a set of strongly-held views, he'll come through this. But does the Lifestory Candidate, author of not one but two biographies at the ripe old age of 45, even have any strongly-held views?
Finally, some common sense in Obamania. Obama's coy little game with pretending to be pro- or anti-free trade especially screws him with these, the 2nd most crucial (after hispanics in the southwest battleground states) voting demographic. If/when he stops preening and starts PERSUADING people to back a set of strongly-held views, he'll come through this. But does the Lifestory Candidate, author of not one but two biographies at the ripe old age of 45, even have any strongly-held views?
Argument by assertion: The New Republic's favorite pastime this election.
It's comforting to know that the general consensus here at TNR, *independent of any evidence* (Nice!), is that Obama's "bittergate" is a significant problem for him.
Given your recent track record re foretelling the future (I fondly recall your pregame analysis of Hawaii, Virginia, and Wisconsin, for example), we all ought to bet on Obama sending this dog and pony show of Hillary/Rove's to the gutter where it belongs.
Talk to some people in small towns about this nonsense. They aren't nearly as stupid as the mindless media (bowed as you all are before the oracle of Rovian cyncism) assume they are. Hillary's whiskey-drin ... view full comment
Argument by assertion: The New Republic's favorite pastime this election.
It's comforting to know that the general consensus here at TNR, *independent of any evidence* (Nice!), is that Obama's "bittergate" is a significant problem for him.
Given your recent track record re foretelling the future (I fondly recall your pregame analysis of Hawaii, Virginia, and Wisconsin, for example), we all ought to bet on Obama sending this dog and pony show of Hillary/Rove's to the gutter where it belongs.
Talk to some people in small towns about this nonsense. They aren't nearly as stupid as the mindless media (bowed as you all are before the oracle of Rovian cyncism) assume they are. Hillary's whiskey-drinking inauthenticity is blaring in small towns of PA like the old bomb sirens in Baghdad. "Everybody run, millions of tons of Hillary Clinton's bullshit is headed for Carlisle."
We all talk about how much we'd like a candidate with some balls. Now we have one. Time for the old dogs to learn some new tricks. Politics is changing. It's not 2004 anymore.
This column is a string of nonsensical assertions and flimsy arguments strung together. It's a thinly veiled and contemptuous polemic claiming with minimal evidence that white people won't vote for Obama. Yes, anybody can figure out that you can't win an election without low-income white people since the majority of people are low-income (as with any society with a right-skewed income distribution) and the majority are white.
Why do the authors so breezily assume a loss by Obama in Florida before the man has ever campaigned in that state? And they assume he can't woo regular voters in pretty much the entire midwest (look at his primary numbers in those states by the way -- from Wisconsin ... view full comment
This column is a string of nonsensical assertions and flimsy arguments strung together. It's a thinly veiled and contemptuous polemic claiming with minimal evidence that white people won't vote for Obama. Yes, anybody can figure out that you can't win an election without low-income white people since the majority of people are low-income (as with any society with a right-skewed income distribution) and the majority are white.
Why do the authors so breezily assume a loss by Obama in Florida before the man has ever campaigned in that state? And they assume he can't woo regular voters in pretty much the entire midwest (look at his primary numbers in those states by the way -- from Wisconsin to Idaho). They don't acknowledge that one candidate is 100 year old cranky old man with less charm than Bob Dole and the other is a smart, magnetic orator who can energize masses like nobody since Bobby Kennedy.
I continue to be baffled at how anyone takes issue with Obama's statement of fact, which is that poor people vote on culturally divisive issues instead of their own economic self-interest. It reminds me of when everyone piled on Howard Dean for saying that Saddam Hussein's capture didn't make us any safer.
We don't deserve Obama. He is too smart, too wise, and too honest for this country.
who has not befriended someone with nutty ideas, or spoken with one emphasis to one set of listeners and another to another group. get over it. We deserve 4 more years of Republicans because they got us into this mess.
We don't deserve Obama. He is too smart, too wise, and too honest for this country.
who has not befriended someone with nutty ideas, or spoken with one emphasis to one set of listeners and another to another group. get over it. We deserve 4 more years of Republicans because they got us into this mess.
This is an attempt to write the rules after the fact.
This is an attempt to write the rules after the fact.
Yes anything can happen.. but then what would happen to the African-American voters and the young people that Obama has turned on in such numbers or even such "elite" highly educated senior citizens such as my friends and I...I am not sure that many of us wouldn't take a powder... and some of us would even bring ourselves to vote for McCain.
And the way you are telling it, I almost hope that is what happens so we don't have to have Hillary running in 2012 saying: "I told you so." Because whatever one does or does not think of Obama some of us have come to loath Hillary for playing out of the Rove play book, taking Obama's strength and by distortion turning it into a weakness. And I am not s ... view full comment
Yes anything can happen.. but then what would happen to the African-American voters and the young people that Obama has turned on in such numbers or even such "elite" highly educated senior citizens such as my friends and I...I am not sure that many of us wouldn't take a powder... and some of us would even bring ourselves to vote for McCain.
And the way you are telling it, I almost hope that is what happens so we don't have to have Hillary running in 2012 saying: "I told you so." Because whatever one does or does not think of Obama some of us have come to loath Hillary for playing out of the Rove play book, taking Obama's strength and by distortion turning it into a weakness. And I am not sure that the democratic party's most loyal electorate will stand still for having the election stolen. For make no mistake about it. That is how it will be perceived.
But he DIDN'T speak his mind. That's what's so frustrating about this whole thing. He misspoke. He used clumsy stupid phrasing to make a point that's actually fairly sympathetic to working class rural voters: they turn to the things that are solid and that matter when economic times are tough -- family, faith, and cultural traditions. Okay, so they also turn to some less honorable things (antipathy toward outsiders) -- this just shows that he doesn't romanticize the folks he's sympathizing with. Obama has explained this clearly. But predictably, McCain and Clinton are ignoring the correction (which is pretty galling coming from Clinton who wants us to think her thrice repeated Bosnia lie was ... view full comment
But he DIDN'T speak his mind. That's what's so frustrating about this whole thing. He misspoke. He used clumsy stupid phrasing to make a point that's actually fairly sympathetic to working class rural voters: they turn to the things that are solid and that matter when economic times are tough -- family, faith, and cultural traditions. Okay, so they also turn to some less honorable things (antipathy toward outsiders) -- this just shows that he doesn't romanticize the folks he's sympathizing with. Obama has explained this clearly. But predictably, McCain and Clinton are ignoring the correction (which is pretty galling coming from Clinton who wants us to think her thrice repeated Bosnia lie was just her "misspeaking") and they are repeating and hammering the original erroneous formulation. Talk about disingenuous and nasty. What's less predictable and even more galling is that so many commentators are doing the same thing (as above.) And as for the "false consciousness" reading, which is not even close to what Obama was saying, it was Marx himself who made this point. Marcuse focused more on the "false consciousness" produced by commodification and consumeristic pleasures (the proliferating commodities with which, in his eyes, capitalism "buys off" the individuals it oppresses) than with cultural epiphenomena like guns or god. It's the San Franciscans at that fundraiser whose "false consciousness" Marcuse would be dissecting.
The unbiased media is missing the conversations we're having at the kitchen table which is fear of Centralized Government not bitterness over lost opportunities.
With Bill Richardson (aka Judas) as VP they will have a good chance of carrying the Hispanic vote. so I wouldn't count them out.
Kind of hard to rectify NAFTA with the Unions but apparently Barak Hussain Obama and Bill Judas Richardson don't need those bitter folks.
Equality at the Expense of Liberty is Communism.
The unbiased media is missing the conversations we're having at the kitchen table which is fear of Centralized Government not bitterness over lost opportunities.
With Bill Richardson (aka Judas) as VP they will have a good chance of carrying the Hispanic vote. so I wouldn't count them out.
Kind of hard to rectify NAFTA with the Unions but apparently Barak Hussain Obama and Bill Judas Richardson don't need those bitter folks.
Equality at the Expense of Liberty is Communism.
Uh oh...I hope you're wrong...But it sure looks like "it's that bad"...WHY can't those voters who were alienated by the comment observe that McCain's no answer for them...No plan for jobs for them, for universal healthcare...I hope they're happy w/their guns and their church and a spiraling deficit, and no new jobs, and MORE trade, and more war, less security etc. with McCain...If they vote against those remarks of Obama's and they are as much the needed electorate for the democrat as you say then the country's really in trouble. Hillary's posing, BTW, she's a total pandering poseuse and if those salt-of-the-earth can't see beneath that fake, tissue thin tough-talking veil she wears when it ... view full comment
Uh oh...I hope you're wrong...But it sure looks like "it's that bad"...WHY can't those voters who were alienated by the comment observe that McCain's no answer for them...No plan for jobs for them, for universal healthcare...I hope they're happy w/their guns and their church and a spiraling deficit, and no new jobs, and MORE trade, and more war, less security etc. with McCain...If they vote against those remarks of Obama's and they are as much the needed electorate for the democrat as you say then the country's really in trouble. Hillary's posing, BTW, she's a total pandering poseuse and if those salt-of-the-earth can't see beneath that fake, tissue thin tough-talking veil she wears when it's convenient - they're still gonna suffer if she wins...Why doesn't the Obama campaign run an ad about her past stance on gun control and trade???????????? This is miserable. Blue collar white voters with their guns and their church and their anti-immigrant defenses up will push us further down the road to hell...
Are ou kidding? Obama is not Kerry, Gore, or Dukakis. This isn't 1988, 200, or 2004. Obama is an infinitely better candidate. The war is unpopular, the economy is in the tank, and we are going to elect a Republican for a third straight term? Look at your colleague Zengerle's post and the accompanying speech as well as the countless other brilliant speeched by Obama.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/default.aspx
Are ou kidding? Obama is not Kerry, Gore, or Dukakis. This isn't 1988, 200, or 2004. Obama is an infinitely better candidate. The war is unpopular, the economy is in the tank, and we are going to elect a Republican for a third straight term? Look at your colleague Zengerle's post and the accompanying speech as well as the countless other brilliant speeched by Obama.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/default.aspx
"at a San Francisco fundraiser last week"
"his remarks in San Francisco"
"before Obama spoke in San Francisco"
"He was saying to these upscale San Francisco Democrats"
"Obama's words in San Francisco could cost him the nomination"
"after Obama spoke his mind, and, perhaps, lost small-town voters' hearts, in San Francisco"
Yes, yes, but *where* did Obama say all these things??
Was this written by John Judis or Linda Chavez?
I have been pro-Obama, and I am disappointed in him over this and Jeremiah Wright. I agree with many of the doubts and worries expressed here. But I expect better -- much, much better -- from The New Republic.
"but after Obama spoke his mind, and, ... view full comment
"at a San Francisco fundraiser last week"
"his remarks in San Francisco"
"before Obama spoke in San Francisco"
"He was saying to these upscale San Francisco Democrats"
"Obama's words in San Francisco could cost him the nomination"
"after Obama spoke his mind, and, perhaps, lost small-town voters' hearts, in San Francisco"
Yes, yes, but *where* did Obama say all these things??
Was this written by John Judis or Linda Chavez?
I have been pro-Obama, and I am disappointed in him over this and Jeremiah Wright. I agree with many of the doubts and worries expressed here. But I expect better -- much, much better -- from The New Republic.
"but after Obama spoke his mind, and, perhaps, lost small-town voters' hearts, in San Francisco"
What a lot of pundits and commentators have overlooked in their response to Obama's words in San Francisco is what they continue to overlook about his candidacy. It's the same thing overlooked by every aging generation when they fail to realize their own dwindling relevance. If it's too real, you're too old. Political candidacies can be compared to each other only so much. Bigger patterns in American culture sometimes outweigh them. That is the case in this election cycle because the baby boomers are falling off the political map. Generation X'ers, my generation, are coming into their own. They are giving Barak Obama unprecedented amounts of money online every chance they get. Just like me. ... view full comment
What a lot of pundits and commentators have overlooked in their response to Obama's words in San Francisco is what they continue to overlook about his candidacy. It's the same thing overlooked by every aging generation when they fail to realize their own dwindling relevance. If it's too real, you're too old. Political candidacies can be compared to each other only so much. Bigger patterns in American culture sometimes outweigh them. That is the case in this election cycle because the baby boomers are falling off the political map. Generation X'ers, my generation, are coming into their own. They are giving Barak Obama unprecedented amounts of money online every chance they get. Just like me. I am politically motivated and excited by the things he says, because no one else even comes close to understanding what I think. Hillary has no clue. Mccain is a dinosaur and most of the pundits don't get it either because they are all so old. Just like John Judis. We will carry Obama to victory on our shoulders, pushing these old people with their old ideas and fears and prejudices out of the goddamn way. You've ruined our planet, our country and our reputation. We are sick of it and we will change it - RIGHT NOW.
You may be wrong... then again you may be right. Why not cut to the chase and tell us how much you are betting one way or the other?
I have no actual control over how the masses will react to his comment, and neither do you.
Can we call this sort of "coverage" out for what it is? It's mental masturbation. It's speculation and gossip-mongering for the hoity-toity set... for all those people who like to THINK (but only barely) that they're too smart and sophisticated to read the likes of Entertainment magazine.
Please spare me stunning news flashes like "Obama comes from a modest background..." and "Obama has an astounding eloquence..."
Even the barest attempt at pondering the incredible hours ... view full comment
You may be wrong... then again you may be right. Why not cut to the chase and tell us how much you are betting one way or the other?
I have no actual control over how the masses will react to his comment, and neither do you.
Can we call this sort of "coverage" out for what it is? It's mental masturbation. It's speculation and gossip-mongering for the hoity-toity set... for all those people who like to THINK (but only barely) that they're too smart and sophisticated to read the likes of Entertainment magazine.
Please spare me stunning news flashes like "Obama comes from a modest background..." and "Obama has an astounding eloquence..."
Even the barest attempt at pondering the incredible hours of toil and research that must have gone into uncovering these little known facts, makes my brain explode.
I agree, this new incidence of mispeak may well do real damage, not because of what BHO said but rather because of how the media’s shorthand and the HDRC attacks are mischaracterizing it (this article included). He did not say or suggest that rural voters’ views on guns, immigration, etc was “pathological” or even misguided. He simply said that many vote on these “values” issues and against their own economic interests because they’ve no confidence that anyone will actually deliver on the economic issues. E.J. Dionne tells it well elsewhere on tnr. Or better yet, read the entire text of BHO’s remarks. view full comment
I agree, this new incidence of mispeak may well do real damage, not because of what BHO said but rather because of how the media’s shorthand and the HDRC attacks are mischaracterizing it (this article included). He did not say or suggest that rural voters’ views on guns, immigration, etc was “pathological” or even misguided. He simply said that many vote on these “values” issues and against their own economic interests because they’ve no confidence that anyone will actually deliver on the economic issues. E.J. Dionne tells it well elsewhere on tnr. Or better yet, read the entire text of BHO’s remarks. http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=3f1c46a6-a691-4084-b04f-108807...
I remember when people were criticizing him for noting that he alone was willing to tell tough truths to people - that his one example of talking to auto makers in Detroit about fuel efficiency wasn't enough and that he was all hype. Well here he has done it again. He has stated the truth about the views of a significant voting block and now he is being criticized. The bottom line is, love him or hate him, Obama honestly represents his constituency - white liberals and black people. We are proud because he doesn't kiss ass and that he stands up for the things his supporters believe in, both in terms of goals and processes. If he doesn't win the election than this country has no place fo ... view full comment
I remember when people were criticizing him for noting that he alone was willing to tell tough truths to people - that his one example of talking to auto makers in Detroit about fuel efficiency wasn't enough and that he was all hype. Well here he has done it again. He has stated the truth about the views of a significant voting block and now he is being criticized. The bottom line is, love him or hate him, Obama honestly represents his constituency - white liberals and black people. We are proud because he doesn't kiss ass and that he stands up for the things his supporters believe in, both in terms of goals and processes. If he doesn't win the election than this country has no place for us and we should just leave, because he is the best representative our coalition has had in decades. Honestly, if we have made so little progress in civil rights during the past 40 years that a bunch of union guys would vote against their self interest because the guy fighting for them is black, than what's the point of trying to salvage this shit. We're done screwing around, triangulating and trying to appease Neanderthals. As Bill put it, Obama is a role of the dice. If we lose, than screw it, because at the rate we're going there's nothing to lose at all. If we win though, it would be a momentous victory and substantive improvements to US cities might follow.
The premise of this article is extraordinarily weak for the following reasons - First, it presumes that the vast majority of working class whites will automatically be offended by the "bitter" remarks. Second, it fails to consider the significance of McCain's and Clinton's plethora of weaknesses which could result in who knows what. Three, Judis underestimates Obama's appeal(few even thought he'd win Iowa) And finally, Judis is basing his assertions mostly on historical data when we are currently a drift in unprecedented and uncharted political waters. He is making a prediction based on an assertion based on pure speculation. I think it's Mr. Judis who will end up with the bitter beer face. ... view full comment
The premise of this article is extraordinarily weak for the following reasons - First, it presumes that the vast majority of working class whites will automatically be offended by the "bitter" remarks. Second, it fails to consider the significance of McCain's and Clinton's plethora of weaknesses which could result in who knows what. Three, Judis underestimates Obama's appeal(few even thought he'd win Iowa) And finally, Judis is basing his assertions mostly on historical data when we are currently a drift in unprecedented and uncharted political waters. He is making a prediction based on an assertion based on pure speculation. I think it's Mr. Judis who will end up with the bitter beer face.
That is an astute analysis by John Judis. Judis understands that the Democratic Party today is about people who listen to NPR and read the New Yorker and the New York Times, and not about its traditional blue-collar constituency.
Liberals like Barack Obama (and Hillary Clinton as well) think that the loyalty of the American working class to this country and its ideals is irrational. Surely the workers are brainwashed or else they would sign on to French and German style socialism. The liberal view couldn't be further from the truth. America is the most pro-working class country in the world, culturally, economically, and in every other way.
Obama's recent remarks give the game away. Libera ... view full comment
That is an astute analysis by John Judis. Judis understands that the Democratic Party today is about people who listen to NPR and read the New Yorker and the New York Times, and not about its traditional blue-collar constituency.
Liberals like Barack Obama (and Hillary Clinton as well) think that the loyalty of the American working class to this country and its ideals is irrational. Surely the workers are brainwashed or else they would sign on to French and German style socialism. The liberal view couldn't be further from the truth. America is the most pro-working class country in the world, culturally, economically, and in every other way.
Obama's recent remarks give the game away. Liberals regard the unwillingness of the white working class to have their lives managed by government bureaucracies as a sign of that the workers are victims of atavistic racial and religious impulses. Maybe there is a better explanation. Maybe they have too much pride and self-respect to want to be dependent on the federal tit, and to be told to how to live by their supposed betters among the bien pensant left.
Tea leaves. Eloquently read, but tea leaves nevertheless. November is a long way off.
Tea leaves. Eloquently read, but tea leaves nevertheless. November is a long way off.
OUR TIME HAS COME FOR DEMOCRATS TO FULLY SUPPORT SENATOR CLINTON TO WIN IN NOV.
VOTERS ARE SICK OF THE MEDIA EXCUSING OBAMA NO MATTER WHAT HE DOES, HIS AWFUL SENATE RECORD, CORRUPT FINANCIAL BACKERS, TERRORIST CONNECTIONS OR WHO HE OFFENDS!!!!
Obama camp makes excuses for no-shows in Philly's black neighborhoods! Obamas view of Americans is extremely disturbing!
http://www.theproblemwithobama.com/
VOTERS DEMAND OBAMA DROP OUT NOW, WITH ALL THE NEW POLITICAL DAMAGING STUFF COMING FROM HIM AND MICHELLE OBAMA, IN ADDITION TO WRIGHTS CONTINUED OBAMA DEFENDED ATTACKS ON WHITE AMERICA. HE WILL SURLY LO ... view full comment
OUR TIME HAS COME FOR DEMOCRATS TO FULLY SUPPORT SENATOR CLINTON TO WIN IN NOV.
VOTERS ARE SICK OF THE MEDIA EXCUSING OBAMA NO MATTER WHAT HE DOES, HIS AWFUL SENATE RECORD, CORRUPT FINANCIAL BACKERS, TERRORIST CONNECTIONS OR WHO HE OFFENDS!!!!
Obama camp makes excuses for no-shows in Philly's black neighborhoods! Obamas view of Americans is extremely disturbing!
http://www.theproblemwithobama.com/
VOTERS DEMAND OBAMA DROP OUT NOW, WITH ALL THE NEW POLITICAL DAMAGING STUFF COMING FROM HIM AND MICHELLE OBAMA, IN ADDITION TO WRIGHTS CONTINUED OBAMA DEFENDED ATTACKS ON WHITE AMERICA. HE WILL SURLY LOOSE THE GENERAL ELECTION FOR DEMOCRATS.
Obama Connection to Terrorists Revealed National Association of Chiefs of Police. http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/31408.html
Obama has a dual citizenship with Kenya Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden would be praying for an Obama victory because it would help the militants win in Iraq. Citizen Wells 3/08
Memories of Obama's recent racial stereotype of the 'typical White person' are still fresh. Add to this now his view of the 'typical small town person.' Obama is quoted as disparaging residents of small towns in Pennsylvania as being “like a lot of small towns in the Midwest” where “it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
Obama is unapologetic, even dissing of voters in Florida and Michigan one has to wonder what groups of Americans he really respects?
Racist wife, Michelle, saying she was proud of America "for the first time" only because of her husband's presidential run.
Obama explained he doesn't wear an American flag lapel pin or hold his hands to his heart during the Pledge of Allegiance because it is a substitute for patriotism,
Obama confirms his own moral obliviousness and he seems to have disdain for those who are troubled by his own unwillingness to break with The Great White hater Rev Wright
Rev Wright says you don't have to wait for the afterlife for the mansion on the hilltop, he’s right! To shut him up Trinity United Church of Christ is building Rev. Wright a $1 mil house on a lot that was purchased for $345,000. According to federal income tax return Obama gave $222,500
Wright continues his Obama supported attacks on non-blacks Wright states Jesus death on the cross was a public lynching Italian style.
Obamas senate record shows he infact did support the war voted against bringing America's troops home, voted for war appropriations giving our money to Halliburton and Blackwater, voted with Bush/Chaney latest bit of posturing S433 to suspend any troop withdrawal, if not suspended, keeps the troops in Iraq for a long time to come.
Washington Post- Fact Check- Senator Obama CAUGHT LYING about Kennedy Role in Helping His Father Contrary to Obama's claims in speeches Kennedy family did not.
Chicago Daily Herald- Obama refers to himself as 'a constitutional law professor on the campaign trail. TRUTH: He never held any such title!
Of mountains and mole hills. Blah blah blah blah blah. Why don't you wait to see if this has ANY effect on the polls or really anything at all before you put such unfalsifiable claptrap to paper? "Assuming he gets the Democratic nomination" there will be exactly zero down-market, gun-toting white voters who change their votes from Obama to McCain because of these comments. That's MY unfalsifiable prediction and is precisely as valid or invalid as yours.
Of mountains and mole hills. Blah blah blah blah blah. Why don't you wait to see if this has ANY effect on the polls or really anything at all before you put such unfalsifiable claptrap to paper? "Assuming he gets the Democratic nomination" there will be exactly zero down-market, gun-toting white voters who change their votes from Obama to McCain because of these comments. That's MY unfalsifiable prediction and is precisely as valid or invalid as yours.
All very well, but does being a "war hero" automatically mean that McCain is not an Unacceptable Republican?
All very well, but does being a "war hero" automatically mean that McCain is not an Unacceptable Republican?
The American people are not stupid. We can make up our own mind. I see to many commentary that take this candidates words or the the context without the content. This is called spin. Please stop discussing the context without the content. Did this candidate lie or did he bring to the forefront an issue that American don't want to talk about. I will say it and say it Loud, "I AM BITTER" with this economy and without our administration and I donot live in small town America. American stop fooling yourself, each and every American is BITTER with where we are as a country, the high gas prices, the falling stock market, he falling housing market. The problem is Obama told the truth and Ameri ... view full comment
The American people are not stupid. We can make up our own mind. I see to many commentary that take this candidates words or the the context without the content. This is called spin. Please stop discussing the context without the content. Did this candidate lie or did he bring to the forefront an issue that American don't want to talk about. I will say it and say it Loud, "I AM BITTER" with this economy and without our administration and I donot live in small town America. American stop fooling yourself, each and every American is BITTER with where we are as a country, the high gas prices, the falling stock market, he falling housing market. The problem is Obama told the truth and Americans can't "HANDLE THE TRUTH". I am proud to see a politician tell the finally tell the truth. Mr. Obama please donot let the media change you. Continue to tell the truth and you will prevail. I am telling the truth because I am BITTER and not afraid to say it.
It looks grim for the Dems. The Presidency is almost certainly lost. They now have to consider how to prevent the top of ticket dragging down the entire party. In the context of an allegedly unpopular war and almost certain recession most will conclude that the Dems are worse than damaging to the nation, they are useless.
It looks grim for the Dems. The Presidency is almost certainly lost. They now have to consider how to prevent the top of ticket dragging down the entire party. In the context of an allegedly unpopular war and almost certain recession most will conclude that the Dems are worse than damaging to the nation, they are useless.
I respect Judis' views, but I think that McCain is currently at the peak of his popularity and if the economy continues to lead to misery and the violence in Iraq also increases---don't forget that both the Sunni insurgents and Sadr want the US OUT and could have their own October surprise to remind Americans that we're never going to win there---Obama can triumph.
I also think that black voter turnout will be off the charts, though I do worry that the Supreme Court will
provide license to supress it by it's expected voter ID ruling. The Obama campaign has to start massive voter registration and education drives.
I respect Judis' views, but I think that McCain is currently at the peak of his popularity and if the economy continues to lead to misery and the violence in Iraq also increases---don't forget that both the Sunni insurgents and Sadr want the US OUT and could have their own October surprise to remind Americans that we're never going to win there---Obama can triumph.
I also think that black voter turnout will be off the charts, though I do worry that the Supreme Court will
provide license to supress it by it's expected voter ID ruling. The Obama campaign has to start massive voter registration and education drives.
Wow..I am really surprised you would make this argument. I am so tired of words being parsed into something news worthy. It isnt just theliberal media..even Fox
Wow..I am really surprised you would make this argument. I am so tired of words being parsed into something news worthy. It isnt just theliberal media..even Fox
Barack has pretty much turned the trajectory of his career upside down by making one short sighted mistake after another. First, he made this run for the presidency too early in his career. Combine his youth with the fact that he is a first term Senator, then add in his liberalism, and it gives the appearance of someone who feels "entitled" without justification. That's why "the time is now" is a horrible slogan for him, because it reminds the voters that his time was "not yet".
Then, since he felt he was getting insufficient traction before Iowa, he went on the Oprah road show, thereby giving a racial tinge to his candidacy. It seemed brilliant at first, and the temptation to get all that a ... view full comment
Barack has pretty much turned the trajectory of his career upside down by making one short sighted mistake after another. First, he made this run for the presidency too early in his career. Combine his youth with the fact that he is a first term Senator, then add in his liberalism, and it gives the appearance of someone who feels "entitled" without justification. That's why "the time is now" is a horrible slogan for him, because it reminds the voters that his time was "not yet".
Then, since he felt he was getting insufficient traction before Iowa, he went on the Oprah road show, thereby giving a racial tinge to his candidacy. It seemed brilliant at first, and the temptation to get all that attention must have been irresistible, but he was no longer the "candidate who transcended race".
Then, add in some bad luck- McCain gets the Republican nomination, and who doesn't like McCain?
Now, he and his wife open their mouths too much.
Bottom line- in November, he's toast. Four years from now, had he waited, he would have been the first African American president.
Wow..I am really surprised you would make this argument. I am so tired of words being parsed into something news worthy. It isnt just the liberal media..even Fox news cant make hay out of it. He admittedly used some unfortunate language, but he spoke the truth that has been spoken a million times..this is not news!!!!
Wow..I am really surprised you would make this argument. I am so tired of words being parsed into something news worthy. It isnt just the liberal media..even Fox news cant make hay out of it. He admittedly used some unfortunate language, but he spoke the truth that has been spoken a million times..this is not news!!!!
I wholeheartedly agree. This election is all over for Obama.
Average American's finally see Obama for what he truely is, ELITIST!
The polls are now reflecting that he is going DOWN the tubes.
I wholeheartedly agree. This election is all over for Obama.
Average American's finally see Obama for what he truely is, ELITIST!
The polls are now reflecting that he is going DOWN the tubes.
Years ago, TNR published a memorable essay defining the “political gaffe.” Key to the definition: what the pol said had to be true. Truth is what makes the comment stick; makes it hard to dodge. And Obama’s comment cut right to the truth: of course many Americans are bitter. After decades of getting used to the feeling of climbing, we are no longer a nation on the upswing. And all the “can do spirit” on God’s green earth cannot make an unemployed Detroit assembly line worker bigger than the forces of a global economic realignment. Yes, many Americans feel lied to, betrayed and cheated by life. From a certain perspective, perhaps the only realistic response is, “that’s ... view full comment
Years ago, TNR published a memorable essay defining the “political gaffe.” Key to the definition: what the pol said had to be true. Truth is what makes the comment stick; makes it hard to dodge. And Obama’s comment cut right to the truth: of course many Americans are bitter. After decades of getting used to the feeling of climbing, we are no longer a nation on the upswing. And all the “can do spirit” on God’s green earth cannot make an unemployed Detroit assembly line worker bigger than the forces of a global economic realignment. Yes, many Americans feel lied to, betrayed and cheated by life. From a certain perspective, perhaps the only realistic response is, “that’s life.” But maybe, just maybe, the response should be “we can do better.”
Obama's problem is that he is naturally arrogant, and a know it all.
Small town people do not cling. They grab with strength. Obama does not see the strength in small town America.
Obama's problem is that he is naturally arrogant, and a know it all.
Small town people do not cling. They grab with strength. Obama does not see the strength in small town America.
Muslim! Radical Black Christian! Secular elitest!
Pick your right-wing narrative.
Obama has shown, especially after Wright, that he writes his own story.
Muslim! Radical Black Christian! Secular elitest!
Pick your right-wing narrative.
Obama has shown, especially after Wright, that he writes his own story.
It’s not readily apparent to me how Barack Obama’s comments about small towners helps to unite the people together.
I also don’t want this guy sitting down with our enemies and after the world blows up, he says, “Apparently, I misspoke. Sorry.”
It’s not readily apparent to me how Barack Obama’s comments about small towners helps to unite the people together.
I also don’t want this guy sitting down with our enemies and after the world blows up, he says, “Apparently, I misspoke. Sorry.”
According to John, the Dems - whether or not its Hillary or Barack - might as well just give up and forfeit the November presidential race. Kerry got 9 million more votes than Gore, and Gore got more votes than Bill Clinton ever got. Obama should get 5-6 million more than Kerry, and I just cannot see how McCain can duplicate the perfect Bush turnout model of 2004. From a macro standpoint, it isn't as bleak as Judis makes it appear. Additonally, given that a significant number of Clinton and Obama voters are currently defecting to McCain, it's amazing the current narrowness of the general election match-up polls. Once the defectors return to the Democratic fold, 2008 should be a comfortabl ... view full comment
According to John, the Dems - whether or not its Hillary or Barack - might as well just give up and forfeit the November presidential race. Kerry got 9 million more votes than Gore, and Gore got more votes than Bill Clinton ever got. Obama should get 5-6 million more than Kerry, and I just cannot see how McCain can duplicate the perfect Bush turnout model of 2004. From a macro standpoint, it isn't as bleak as Judis makes it appear. Additonally, given that a significant number of Clinton and Obama voters are currently defecting to McCain, it's amazing the current narrowness of the general election match-up polls. Once the defectors return to the Democratic fold, 2008 should be a comfortable win to a blow-out.
The concern over Sen. Obama's comments is not so much about the use of the word "bitter". It is that these comments, along with other troubling revelations, begin to reveal the senator's true values and beliefs.
The concern over Sen. Obama's comments is not so much about the use of the word "bitter". It is that these comments, along with other troubling revelations, begin to reveal the senator's true values and beliefs.
please do your homework. Reagan took PA, Oh, KY, and MO in 1980....not Carter
please do your homework. Reagan took PA, Oh, KY, and MO in 1980....not Carter
Yeah, well, you could be hit by a Tornado too! This negative article is "wishful thinking" on the part of the author. If people really decide to NOT vote for Barack Obama based on some stupid use of words, then they deserve the lying, non-transparent, drama ridden White House Hillary would bring. But, I think she would lose anyway. She's done a great job in ruining The Dems chances in the fall and her chances should she "win" (steal) the nomination.
The real problem is that this primary contest runs far too long. Candidates get tired, supporters get tired and they begin to eat each other. It should have ended long ago. Again, the Dems screw themselves.
Yeah, well, you could be hit by a Tornado too! This negative article is "wishful thinking" on the part of the author. If people really decide to NOT vote for Barack Obama based on some stupid use of words, then they deserve the lying, non-transparent, drama ridden White House Hillary would bring. But, I think she would lose anyway. She's done a great job in ruining The Dems chances in the fall and her chances should she "win" (steal) the nomination.
The real problem is that this primary contest runs far too long. Candidates get tired, supporters get tired and they begin to eat each other. It should have ended long ago. Again, the Dems screw themselves.
The movie 'the Deerhunter' seemed to depict old school Pennsylvanians well, or have I just been fooled by Hollywood?
The movie 'the Deerhunter' seemed to depict old school Pennsylvanians well, or have I just been fooled by Hollywood?
I don't buy the first part of your article at all. Obama polls ahead of McCain in the Northwest, and in Nevada and New Mexico, and he's in a dead heat in Colorado. The Latino base said in exit polls in Texas and other places that they like Obama, they just have a special tie to the Clintons. As a Latino, I think that's accurate, especially with the older generation.
Obama doesn't have to win Kentucky, West Virginia, or Indiana to win because he does so well out west. Recent polling has showed him tightening the race in places like Montana, Alaska, and South Dakota. The most recent poll has him winning North Dakota.
The keys for Obama.
1. Keep the Northwest (Oregon and Washington).
2. Win ... view full comment
I don't buy the first part of your article at all. Obama polls ahead of McCain in the Northwest, and in Nevada and New Mexico, and he's in a dead heat in Colorado. The Latino base said in exit polls in Texas and other places that they like Obama, they just have a special tie to the Clintons. As a Latino, I think that's accurate, especially with the older generation.
Obama doesn't have to win Kentucky, West Virginia, or Indiana to win because he does so well out west. Recent polling has showed him tightening the race in places like Montana, Alaska, and South Dakota. The most recent poll has him winning North Dakota.
The keys for Obama.
1. Keep the Northwest (Oregon and Washington).
2. Win Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, which he has a great chance to do. He barely lost to Clinton in New Mexico.
3. Hold the upper midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan)
4. Flip Iowa (and he will).
5. Hold Massachusetts, and New Jersey.
6. Win PA, Ohio, or Virginia, and he still polls ahead of McCain in PA.
That would give him the win even if he lost NH, even if he didn't flip North Dakota, even though he has little chance in Florida, even though the possibility hasn't evn been broaches that he could win NC (where he is within single digits), Montana, Alaska, or South Carolina.
Factor in that he has vastly superior grassroots and fundraising capability to McCain, and I think all this amounts to crying over spilled milk. When he goes head to head with McCain, his advantages in these capacities are going to shine through.
Oh shut up.
Oh shut up.
I didn't just recently fall off the turnip wagon so I expect anything and everything from our politicans. Barack's arrogance though, appears to be so completely absolute that his conscience doesn't jolt him in the least when he caters to those he obviously feels the most kinship, and demeans those who do the work in this country.
I didn't just recently fall off the turnip wagon so I expect anything and everything from our politicans. Barack's arrogance though, appears to be so completely absolute that his conscience doesn't jolt him in the least when he caters to those he obviously feels the most kinship, and demeans those who do the work in this country.
Come on mate, as we say in Australia, pull the other leg - it plays a tune.
I'm as right-wing as the next man, but even I can see through the fake outrage in all of this. Try telling the real story, which is about how politicians twist words for dishonest advantage.
Come on mate, as we say in Australia, pull the other leg - it plays a tune.
I'm as right-wing as the next man, but even I can see through the fake outrage in all of this. Try telling the real story, which is about how politicians twist words for dishonest advantage.
It's nice of you to show just how biased and in the dark you are. Want to talk about elitism? Look in the mirror jackass.
It's nice of you to show just how biased and in the dark you are. Want to talk about elitism? Look in the mirror jackass.
This contest has moved far beyond the boundaries of civilized behavior.I think the real culprit isn't Hillary Clinton, but race. And that deeply saddens me.
This contest has moved far beyond the boundaries of civilized behavior.I think the real culprit isn't Hillary Clinton, but race. And that deeply saddens me.
This is a great article. I supported B-Obama at around the time of the Super Bowl, but changed my mind and voted for Ron Paul due to B-Obama's flip flopping on the war in Iraq. No one knows the intent of B-Obama on the war in Iraq or for that matter, NAFTA. I will probably vote for McCain in the fall due to the fact that I know the intent of McCain and if we will keep troops in Iraq, then we must keep enough to do the job. I would prefer a complete pull out in Iraq. Yes I know all the troubles that that will bring, but we have lost too many troops and I know some young men fighting there right now.
This is a great article. I supported B-Obama at around the time of the Super Bowl, but changed my mind and voted for Ron Paul due to B-Obama's flip flopping on the war in Iraq. No one knows the intent of B-Obama on the war in Iraq or for that matter, NAFTA. I will probably vote for McCain in the fall due to the fact that I know the intent of McCain and if we will keep troops in Iraq, then we must keep enough to do the job. I would prefer a complete pull out in Iraq. Yes I know all the troubles that that will bring, but we have lost too many troops and I know some young men fighting there right now.
Good article. Great analysis but all Democratic leaders, candidates and opinion makers need to loose the 'mother or father figure' concept. The idea that working class Midwest voters need a benevolent, all knowing patriarch/matriarch to guide their lives is pompous and condescending and reeks of the moral superiority that voters find so abhorrent. These are intelligent, thinking adults who are perfectly capable of making decisions in their own lives. Democrats make a huge, tragic mistake in treating them like misguided children.
Good article. Great analysis but all Democratic leaders, candidates and opinion makers need to loose the 'mother or father figure' concept. The idea that working class Midwest voters need a benevolent, all knowing patriarch/matriarch to guide their lives is pompous and condescending and reeks of the moral superiority that voters find so abhorrent. These are intelligent, thinking adults who are perfectly capable of making decisions in their own lives. Democrats make a huge, tragic mistake in treating them like misguided children.
You must have missed the audience booing HRC at her speech yesterday and ignoring her at the dinner last night. I think you could be off the mark on this one, but I guess we will see in a week.
You must have missed the audience booing HRC at her speech yesterday and ignoring her at the dinner last night. I think you could be off the mark on this one, but I guess we will see in a week.
His wife's comments about not being 'proud' of America..." Here we go again. Michelle Obama said no such thing, as you well know, and the New Republic ought to be above Fox News. You may not cherish the prospect, but come October and November, when almost 5000 Americans will have died in Iraq and when the United States will be in the midst of a full-blown recession, Barack Obama will crush McCain in a series of debates. Millions of Reagan democrats voted for Bush in 2004, but they will not want more war, tougher economic times, and a health care system that leaves tens of millions uninsured in 2009 and beyond. Once Hillary is gone, and gone she will be, Democrats will rally behind Obama. McC ... view full comment
His wife's comments about not being 'proud' of America..." Here we go again. Michelle Obama said no such thing, as you well know, and the New Republic ought to be above Fox News. You may not cherish the prospect, but come October and November, when almost 5000 Americans will have died in Iraq and when the United States will be in the midst of a full-blown recession, Barack Obama will crush McCain in a series of debates. Millions of Reagan democrats voted for Bush in 2004, but they will not want more war, tougher economic times, and a health care system that leaves tens of millions uninsured in 2009 and beyond. Once Hillary is gone, and gone she will be, Democrats will rally behind Obama. McCain is not getting any younger and his declining ability to think on his feet and speak extemporaneously is beginning to embarrass even staunch supporters such as Lieberman. What's more, the Clintons' Rovian attacks on Obama's "elitism" are turning off uncommitted superdelegates, most of whom have either read or are currently reading Barack Obama's first book, because they're trying to find out as much as they can about the man. You're in for a surprise.
Wow, it is now all clear to me. Because he said "cling to" instead of "focus on" Obama was sending coded messages about Marxist philosophy and false consciousness. And here I thought he was just answering a question about voting patterns. Those San Francisco Democrats are so sophisticated! No wonder he wants to be one of them.
Wow, it is now all clear to me. Because he said "cling to" instead of "focus on" Obama was sending coded messages about Marxist philosophy and false consciousness. And here I thought he was just answering a question about voting patterns. Those San Francisco Democrats are so sophisticated! No wonder he wants to be one of them.
The bloom is off of the rose.
The bloom is off of the rose.
Obama is not a Marxist. I've come to think that it is the pundits and writers who are truly out of touch with America. Yet again, they're trying to throw the election to the Republicans. I love a good smear. It just seems in 2000, 2004 and now in 2008 they seem directed at the Democrats and not the Republicans. The fact that Cindy McCain is a recovering and self admitted drug addict who should have been convicted in a federal court for theft and John McCain is partially responsible for the S&L meltdown of the 1980s and may be entrusted with the stewardship of the economy seem irrelevant points to writers, New Republic or otherwise. Stop. You're hurting America.
Obama is not a Marxist. I've come to think that it is the pundits and writers who are truly out of touch with America. Yet again, they're trying to throw the election to the Republicans. I love a good smear. It just seems in 2000, 2004 and now in 2008 they seem directed at the Democrats and not the Republicans. The fact that Cindy McCain is a recovering and self admitted drug addict who should have been convicted in a federal court for theft and John McCain is partially responsible for the S&L meltdown of the 1980s and may be entrusted with the stewardship of the economy seem irrelevant points to writers, New Republic or otherwise. Stop. You're hurting America.