Twilight Struggle

In its closing days, the Bush administration escalates the war on terror.

On Sunday, U.S. helicopters accompanied by a special forces team struck in Sukkariyeh, Syria, just over the border from Iraq. It was a raid with enormous implications for the war in Iraq and the broader war on terror. The target of the raid was a man named Badran Turki Hishan al-Mazidih, better known in his circles as Abu Ghadiya. Since 2004, intelligence officials have been targeting Abu Ghadiya for his pernicious role in Iraq: helping fuel the Sunni insurgency by transporting foreign fighters, money, and weapons. Never before had Americans struck within Syria with such visible fingerprints. But officials believe that killing Abu Ghadiya justified that kind of action. One military official told me that the elimination of Abu Ghadiya represents a significant triumph over al Qaeda in Iraq. “The organization is pretty much finished now,” he told me.

That is a big story. But it doesn’t begin to capture the magnitude of the strike in Sukkariyeh. We have entered a new phase in the war on terror. In July, according to three administration sources, the Bush administration formally gave the military new power to strike terrorist safe havens outside of Iraq and Afghanistan. Before then, a military strike in a country like Syria or Pakistan would have required President Bush’s personal approval. Now, those kinds of strikes in the region can occur at the discretion of the incoming commander of Central Command (Centcomm), General David Petraeus. One intelligence source described the order as institutionalizing the “Chicago Way,” an allusion to Sean Connery’s famous soliloquy about bringing a gun to a knife fight.

The new order could pave the way for direct action in Kenya, Mali, Pakistan, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen--all places where the American intelligence believe al Qaeda has a significant presence, but can no longer count on the indigenous security services to act. In the parlance of the Cold War, Petraeus will now have the authority to fight a regional “dirty war.” When queried about the order from July, deputy spokesman for the National Security Council Ben Chang offered no comment.

Strikes within Iran could be justified by the order, since senior al Qaeda leaders such as Saif al Adel are believed to have used that country as a base for aiding the Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda affiliates in Iraqi Kurdistan. For now, however, any action inside Iranian territory will require at least sign off from the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff because of Iran’s capacity to retaliate inside the western hemisphere.

Why has the administration changed policy at this late date? For starters, the administration is genuinely worried about al Qaeda’s resurgence, not just in Pakistan, but across Asia and Africa. Within the administration, there is growing frustration with security services that are either unable or unwilling to root out al Qaeda within their borders. Pakistan is perhaps the best example of this. And even friendly services, like the one in Kenya, have made maddeningly little progress in their fight against terrorism.

When the administration first proposed this approach, it met with internal resistance. The National Intelligence Council produced a paper outlining the risk associated with this change in policy such as scuttling the prospect for better security cooperation in the future. And Admiral William Fallon, who preceded Petraeus at Centcomm, opposed taking direct action against al Qaeda and affiliated targets in Syria. But with the clock winding down on the administration, it has a greater appetite for racking up victories against al Qaeda--and less worries about any residual political consequences from striking. Roger Cressey, a former deputy to Richard Clarke in the Clinton and Bush administrations, says, “[W]ith the administration in the final weeks, the bar for military operations will be lowered because the downsides for the president are minimal.”

The big mystery now is whether the next administration will dismantle this policy or permit Petraeus to follow it to fruition. Obama has said nothing about Sunday’s strikes in Syria (a silence that has rightly earned him taunting from the McCain campaign). On one level, this new policy conflicts with Obama’s stated desire for opening up diplomatic channels to places like Tehran and Damascus. On the other hand, this is precisely the type of policy that he has repeatedly promised at least for Pakistan, whose territory is believed to host Osama bin Laden: If America has actionable intelligence on al Qaeda leaders, and the country housing those terrorist sits on its hands, we will act. His campaign rhetoric has now become the official war policy he will inherit. Is this a development that pleases him?

Eli Lake was the national security reporter for the now defunct New York Sun

By Eli Lake

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COMMENTS (37)

10/28/2008 - 3:40pm EDT |

In the midst of an economic crisis, the uncertain leadership of a presidential transition, and massive stress on our armed forces -- at a time when Afghanistan is disintegrating from a lack of troops and strategy -- the idea of going on the offensive against Syria and Pakistan is frankly psychotic.

There are plenty of plausible excuses, including the old standby, "Bush is a warmongering idiot." But there's only one compelling explanation for such a reckless last-minute shooting spree. This is a concerted effort by the Bush Administration to provoke a sovereign state into attacking American forces before Election Day.

What a disgusting epilogue for the worst president in American history.

10/28/2008 - 4:13pm EDT |

Valuable material. Are you sure that "Chicago Style" doesn't refer to an Illinois Senator who said he would attack inside another country if he had actionable intelligence and that country refused to act?

10/28/2008 - 7:44pm EDT |

We'll be lucky if this moron doesn't get us in another war (Iran) before he leaves. Doesn't anyone among the Joint Chiefs have the balls to tell him to stop throwing American lives around like cheap confetti?

10/28/2008 - 8:16pm EDT |

yikes

10/28/2008 - 8:53pm EDT |

But what about those who died in this reckless attack?
We saw on CNN their funeral. Would there be an Interpol Arrest Warrant for the murderers? May be not now. More likely around the 28th January when their office protection lapses.

I hope we can put them on trial locally before that to save us universal disgrace.

10/28/2008 - 9:51pm EDT |

Pakistan is a nuclear power of 80. . .100 million people with medium range missiles. We just stuck it, killing a batch of civilians. These people were supposed to be our friends and allies. Is there any better way of turning our friends into our enemies? Are we trying to go it alone against the entire world?

Just compare this lunacy to the huge coalition fighting the First Gulf War. More than sixty nations contributed troops. Many were Islamic. Instead of the USA versus the world, it was Saddam against everyone else. It's time to get out the straight-jackets!!!

10/29/2008 - 9:02am EDT |

I'm glad to see that a truly talented journalist like Eli Lake was given a platform on TNR. I just hope that TNR is able to make the position permanent and that they continue to allow Lake to report and provide analysis that may be at variance with the officially sanctioned Obama defense and diplomacy narrative that will become the de rigueur thinking around these parts.

Hershel Ginsburg

Jerusalem / Efrata

10/29/2008 - 9:05am EDT |

There is an upside on this, especially if the US stops this juvenile business of not having diplomatic relations with hostile nations, like Iran. In dealing, with an outfit like AQ -- which is not a state or, except in its own mind, a religion -- the US has the option to devolve power and discretion on local regional commanders and diplomats who might find that Iran, for instance, really does not care much for AQ or that, say, Hizb'allah has pro- and anti-Iran factions in Syria, and on and on. These are details than actually should not be the stuff of clever- briefers and desk-jockeys in London or DC.

Some devolution would attentuate the sorry business of elevating "tin-pot" dictators, like ... view full comment

10/29/2008 - 9:18am EDT |

Am I the only person who feels that there is "something up"? With the cross border attacks that the US has been using during this pivotal time in the election, something just doesn't feel right. The current administration knows that their party is hanging on by a thread, partly due to its own blunders of war. So, why would they be doing this now?

10/29/2008 - 9:26am EDT |

I think the number one consideration should be keeping America safe, not political ramifications. Don't you think so?

10/29/2008 - 9:37am EDT |

Who are we kidding? This was a Bush Administration "October Surprise" for McCain, trying to shift attention away from the economy and to McCain's perceived strength. The Stevens verdict squeezed the headlines, though. Now they'll have to try something even more desperate.

10/29/2008 - 10:16am EDT |

How much more damage can this administration do before it leaves office? Bush has ceded high-level policymaking to the generals and they'll do what they do best. God help us until the adults take over on January 20th.

10/29/2008 - 10:32am EDT |

Obama will get no respect from foreign governments because they will be too busy laughing at us for voting in a leader who will not place hand over heart in honor of our anthem and flag. Obama has some other unnamed agenda that has his primary allegiance. Foreign Leaders can see plainly he does not put the needs of America first, why don't we? An American leader should set the standard for patriotic honor, and Obama's disdain for our constitution, flag, and anthem is plain for all to see who will just open their eyes - American or not.

10/29/2008 - 10:38am EDT |

I find it striking that there is no mention in this article (or any comment by either candidate nor by the administration) on the implications of the strike in international law. The subject apparently doesn´t exist in the minds of American policymakers.

The terrorists have been making the case that theirs is a reaction to unlawful "terrorist" medling in their countries by the US in the past. It is an argument hard to dispute, even if such meddling has been undercover (the toppling of governments) or high tech (precison bombs that end up killing civilians in, say, Afgan weddings, or shooting down Iranian civilian planes).

Unless and until the UN produces a treaty tha defines terrorism and wha ... view full comment

10/29/2008 - 10:48am EDT |

So the republican administration is taking the advice of the democratic candidate? AGAIN?? (Remember direct talks with Iran; timetable for departing Iraq?)
Looks like the same thing Mr. McCain is doing. (When did his campaign message become CHANGE? Wasn't his original campaign platform based on McCain being The Experienced One?

10/29/2008 - 11:17am EDT |

1. Biden is WAY more qualified than Palin should something happen to the President.

2. The Bush Administration cannot be relied upon to tell the truth about foreign matters! They lied about Saddam -- they will LIE AGAIN for political gain.

3. Bush and McCain are trying once again to SCARE Americans for POLITICAL GAIN.

4. Don't be fooled again. Don't vote out of fear -- vote out of hope - and that hope is NOT McCain and his goofy sidekick, the ill-informed Palin!

5. Who do you really think cares more and will do more to ensure ALL Americans can get affordable health coverage? If you think McCain, think again!

6. Vote for Barack-Biden 08! Biden is 1,000 times more qualified than the ill-informed P ... view full comment

10/29/2008 - 11:27am EDT |

I read the report, however, I find it a one sided thing. After all what business USA has to go hunting for Al Qaida organisations. It is not yet confirmed if Al Qaida is actually a real entity. It all seem to be creation of official propaganda with an aim to help Israel by punsihing whomsoever she considers her enemies.

The 9/11 attack has not been proved to be an act of the 19 Arabs. They were reported to have left behind some flying primers at the airports of their departure. If the so called Al Qaida had the technological cpacity to destry World Trade Center why do not they repeat the act again?

10/29/2008 - 11:34am EDT |

just wow, eli. where is sy hersh? if this was the new yorker, your story would be front-page news everywhere. great job.

10/29/2008 - 11:38am EDT |

I can't believe the military state that George W. has ushered in. America be very afraid

10/29/2008 - 11:46am EDT |

Don't talk the talk if you can't walk the walk.

10/29/2008 - 11:48am EDT |

Are we acting wisely?? the macedonian town of Phillipians was a Roman colony. Roman soldiers and their families had colonized this part of the world to defend Rome's interst. Until we start moving American citizens as colonists into Afganistan and Iraq (circa Guantanamo base) we will not have an effective presence in these areas. We leave and the terrorists (Taliban) return. We should not leave we should be living there, colonizing, building homes, moving families and making this part of the world ours for our own protection. Many now are just patiently waiting for the US to "leave" for them to return to their control of the country. Wouldn't it drive a strong message if homes, cities ... view full comment

10/29/2008 - 12:02pm EDT |

I really do hope that at long last al Qaeda is finished in Iraq, but it tends to be forgotten that before the Iraq war al Qaeda was never in Iraq, due to Bin Laden and Saddam loathing each other as much as they each hated the West.

It was the Bush administration’s criminal failure to have in place a coherent What Happens Next? plan that left a power vacuum into which al Qaeda quickly stepped after regrouping following its astonishing let-off in Afghanistan. US and Allied forces clearly had Bin Laden on the ropes until Bush’s inexplicable decision to switch focus and go after Saddam instead.

As a direct result of the al Quaeda-inspired violence in Iraq, thousands of US and Allied military ... view full comment

10/29/2008 - 12:03pm EDT |

I know Obama said he'd be willing to do the same thing if necessary, but why would this not require the authorization of Congress? Other than the scale of it, what is the practical difference between a single military operation against a specific target inside a country with which war has not been declared and, say, the bombing of Cambodia during the war in Vietnam.

10/29/2008 - 12:17pm EDT |

Eli Lake
Post Date Tuesday, October 28, 2008 |

----Never before had Americans struck within Syria with such visible fingerprints.---
Many times/all the times, the fingerprints are there its only that we dont want to find them and hide behind them .
IN 2003 APR when the iraq war started i made a sculpture/bronze egg,depicting my vision on the war,the last word is CHAOS .
Yours sincerely
Nikolas Kouvakas

WHAT lies BENEATH LIES,the TRUTH.

p.s.if you want a e-copy of the sculpture ctc
artchess@otenet.gr

WHAT lies BENEATH LIES,the TRUTH.
N.K.

10/29/2008 - 12:49pm EDT |

George Bush doesn't give a hoot about me. If he did I would've been captured or dead right I attacked your USA.

Even with a $25 million bounty Bush still can't find me 7 years after 9/11/2001.

10/29/2008 - 1:15pm EDT |

Isn't this "take matters into our own hands" tactic the same one that Senator McCain called reckless and naive when it was floated by Barack Obama during the debates? "Time horizons," excursions into sovereign countries, no surge for Afghanistan; the Bush administration seems to be taking their foreign policy cues from the wrong candidate. Add that to their bailout plan, and I think someone should remind the President that he's still a Republican.

10/29/2008 - 2:43pm EDT |

I wonder how this authority would apply in the event that Iraq and U.S. fail to reach agreement on the security pact, and our troops are confined to bases.

10/29/2008 - 6:18pm EDT |

Great article, I hope TNR will continue to follow these missions outside of Iraq and Afghanistan.

10/29/2008 - 9:32pm EDT |

Sure do miss you and the New York Sun, Eli. Will you be writing regularly for TNR. Maybe Nibras will let you guest blog over at Talisman Gate. ;>)

10/29/2008 - 11:51pm EDT |

Good, if brief, article. More on this and other pressing matters, please.

10/30/2008 - 1:25pm EDT |

Funny, I thought it was al qaeda who stepped up the war on terror on 9/11/2008. I guess a lot of you were in Paris somewhere, drinking lattes.

10/30/2008 - 1:33pm EDT |

The truth comes out - liberals who say they "support our troops" and "love America" and only want us out of Iraq to "save American lives. " The US military is doing it's damndest to save Iraqis from terrorist scum and the only thing you hear in this hack forum is how Chimphitler McHalliburton is getting us involved in another war blah blah blah yack fuck. I would think killing 10 terrorists and their chief importer would be cause for celebration. Or is it really that you want the whole country to fall apart to prove Chimphitler wrong? It stings doesn't it for America to actually win a battle? It feels great that Afghanistan is getting bloodier? Why don't you scumbags actually put your mone ... view full comment

10/30/2008 - 1:39pm EDT |

Hey Bin Laden,

Give it some time. We'll turn you into grease.

Why don't you read Mark Bowden's book "Killing Pablo. " You know how long it effing took to get and find Escobar in a small country like Colombia? Or how that Bosnian war criminal that was caught last year had been on the run for 10+ years in the middle of EUROPE in plain sight? Oh that's right, you have no freaking idea how manhunts go. You just think that cops who can't wiretap should have ESP and be able to stop and prevent terrorists. Now if Bush caught Bin Laden this week and announced the news, it'd be a huge conspiracy and binladen's been caught all along, only it was unveiled this week to help McCain right? Yeah, everythi ... view full comment

10/30/2008 - 4:12pm EDT |

Thanks, I agree that we do not want W to initiate any more actions that he could screw up in the way he has screwed up almost everything he has touched. Instead of trying to impeach Bush and Cheney with so little time before the end of W's second term, action should be taken to begin the preparations for charges of War Crimes. Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, Feith, Addington, Hadley, John Yung, & all the others involved in recommending, approving, and implementing water boarding and other forms of torture for which the US charged and convicted Germans of war crimes at the end of WW II. It is interesting to note that we used the Chinese manual of torture that the Chinese used on our soldi ... view full comment

10/30/2008 - 5:45pm EDT |

It is a blessing that George W. Bush is being heavily slammed by John McCain. If it has been for their rocky relationship, George W. Bush may be more likely to employ more "Wag the Dog" tactics to improve John McCain's chance of being elected. If some major international incidence occurs between Sunday and Monday before the election, then it means the RNC was able to twist George W. Bush's arm to do it.

10/30/2008 - 6:31pm EDT |

Given the determining influence the US has on Australia's foreign policy, justice demands that we Aussies be granted the right to vote in your elections. This can be relinquished after an Obama victory, but not before!

11/03/2008 - 6:02pm EDT |

Everything obama does in the war on terror will be just pimping Bush's ride. If Barry pulls out of Iraq and it holds; it will be because of Bush doubling down on the surge. If it collapses into chaos and genocide; then the necons were right and we pulled out too early.

What this is really all about is all of you liberals with your Bush Derangement Syndrome cannot conceive of Bush doing anything good - even though it would be statistically impossible for him to be wrong all of the time. You sit comfortably in your groupthink and surmise that Bush just must be a bigger idiot than even you thought.

The fact is Barry will have to do every little "mean thing" Bush is doing now to keep us safe. If ... view full comment

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