What’s actually surprising about public opinion is not how much has changed since 2008, but how little. His approval rating in the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, 53-44, nearly matches his 2008 vote total. Obama still enjoys a massive edge in trust over congressional Republicans. That Democrats are suffering from a voter backlash anyway just shows how mechanistically public opinion can behave.
The establishment’s tendency to ignore structural forces is a thoroughly bipartisan one. (And, for the record, I also object to it when candidates I agree with win. After the 2008 election, I wrote, “In reality, no president ever truly has a mandate, in the sense of the electorate voting for him as if his entire platform were a ballot initiative. Candidates' platforms play a role in who wins elections, but so do economic conditions, scandals, the candidates' personalities, and the Election Day weather in Philadelphia.”)
The difference between the parties is that Republicans ignore the establishment’s advice. After Obama’s election, conventional wisdom insisted that the GOP would have to move to the center. Instead the party moved further right. And whatever the policy merits, it has worked politically. If Republicans had cooperated more with Obama, it would have given him bipartisan accomplishments and made him even more popular.
The GOP’s ability to ignore establishment nostrums in the face of defeat is its great electoral strength. Democrats, by contrast, have a congenital tendency to panic. Abandoning health care reform after they’ve already paid whatever political cost that comes from voting for it in both houses would be suicide. Even if Coakley loses, the House could pass the Senate bill as is, avoiding the need to break a filibuster, and tinker with it in a reconciliation bill that can’t be filibustered. The only thing preventing the Democrats from following through would be sheer panic.
Remember the classic scene in It’s a Wonderful Life? Facing a run on his building and loan, George Bailey tries to explain to his frantic customers how to look after their self-interest. “Don't you see what's happening?” he pleads, “Potter isn't selling. Potter's buying! And why? Because we're panicking and he's not.” President Obama’s great challenge right now is to be his party’s George Bailey.
Jonathan Chait is a senior editor of The New Republic.
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The only genuine American ideology is Pragmatism. We know for sure that Obama has spent more money than most of us know how to conceptualize, and the results have been, "...things would have been even worse if not". This is not a particularly effective theme.
Dems simply must pass the Senate healthcare bill. Failing that, and maybe even with it, I don't see how they can avoid a train wreck in November. Without that, 2012 is in serious jeopardy as well. Panic may not be the most effective strategy, though. How about fewer excuses and more cold, hard looks into the mirror?
The only genuine American ideology is Pragmatism. We know for sure that Obama has spent more money than most of us know how to conceptualize, and the results have been, "...things would have been even worse if not". This is not a particularly effective theme.
Dems simply must pass the Senate healthcare bill. Failing that, and maybe even with it, I don't see how they can avoid a train wreck in November. Without that, 2012 is in serious jeopardy as well. Panic may not be the most effective strategy, though. How about fewer excuses and more cold, hard looks into the mirror?
Powell nails it, with one missing piece: Pragmatism may be our only ideology, but voting the economy is a recurrent tactic, even when it doesn't make a lot of sense. And that IS a real problem for Democrats this year, because the great unwashed electorate does not trust the economy or the Obama administration's response to it.
Powell nails it, with one missing piece: Pragmatism may be our only ideology, but voting the economy is a recurrent tactic, even when it doesn't make a lot of sense. And that IS a real problem for Democrats this year, because the great unwashed electorate does not trust the economy or the Obama administration's response to it.
"What’s actually surprising about public opinion is not how much has changed since 2008, but how little. His approval rating in the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, 53-44, nearly matches his 2008 vote total...."
In apples-to-apples -land, Obama's public opinion approval ratings have fallen from around 60-70% immediately after his inauguration to 45-55% a year later.
"What’s actually surprising about public opinion is not how much has changed since 2008, but how little. His approval rating in the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, 53-44, nearly matches his 2008 vote total...."
In apples-to-apples -land, Obama's public opinion approval ratings have fallen from around 60-70% immediately after his inauguration to 45-55% a year later.
BL, cut Jonathan some slack -- he's got space constraints to meet, especially with a TRB column. What he meant was that public opinion did not undergo some major realignment because of Obama's election in 2008 -- generally speaking, the people who voted for him approve of the job he's doing as President and the people who didn't, don't. The fall in overall public opinion over the past 12 months reflects a honeymoon period that was a swoonier than usual at the beginning and adjusted itself back to the mean rather rapidly. The modulations in Obama's popularity are what the internals for all of the Gallup and similar tracking polls show pretty consistently. Whether that means that the peopl ... view full comment
BL, cut Jonathan some slack -- he's got space constraints to meet, especially with a TRB column. What he meant was that public opinion did not undergo some major realignment because of Obama's election in 2008 -- generally speaking, the people who voted for him approve of the job he's doing as President and the people who didn't, don't. The fall in overall public opinion over the past 12 months reflects a honeymoon period that was a swoonier than usual at the beginning and adjusted itself back to the mean rather rapidly. The modulations in Obama's popularity are what the internals for all of the Gallup and similar tracking polls show pretty consistently. Whether that means that the people who approve of Obama's performance would vote Democratic in the 2010 Congressional elections is a whole other kettle of fish.
Wildboy,
'fair nuff.
Wildboy,
'fair nuff.
er, that should be fair 'nuff. You make a good point.
er, that should be fair 'nuff. You make a good point.
Oh, well, we can console ourselves with one thing: Brown won't get re-elected in 2012. Once Mass. voters realize he's not a Weld/Romney Repub, but a lockstep rightwinger, he will lose to a decent Democrat in a high-turnout election with Obama supporters out in droves.
And yes, the people who voted for Obama support him, and the ones who didn't, don't. Now let's pass health reform, just as the GOP would pass its priorities if the shoe were on the other foot.
Oh, well, we can console ourselves with one thing: Brown won't get re-elected in 2012. Once Mass. voters realize he's not a Weld/Romney Repub, but a lockstep rightwinger, he will lose to a decent Democrat in a high-turnout election with Obama supporters out in droves.
And yes, the people who voted for Obama support him, and the ones who didn't, don't. Now let's pass health reform, just as the GOP would pass its priorities if the shoe were on the other foot.
Uh, baxter--a Senate term is six years.
Uh, baxter--a Senate term is six years.
Uh, Powell--right, Kennedy's term does run out in 2012. Sorry baxter.
But I wouldn't be so quick to write of Brown in his next race. The "major parties" are really just a smokescreen. The only party that counts is the Incumbent Party, and it nearly always wins.
Uh, Powell--right, Kennedy's term does run out in 2012. Sorry baxter.
But I wouldn't be so quick to write of Brown in his next race. The "major parties" are really just a smokescreen. The only party that counts is the Incumbent Party, and it nearly always wins.
sdemuth
"... voting the economy is a recurrent tactic, even when it doesn't make a lot of sense. And that IS a real problem for Democrats this year, because the great unwashed electorate does not trust the economy or the Obama administration's response to it."
Maybe so, but how will voting Republican help the economy and create jobs? This is what people need to ask themselves.
sdemuth
"... voting the economy is a recurrent tactic, even when it doesn't make a lot of sense. And that IS a real problem for Democrats this year, because the great unwashed electorate does not trust the economy or the Obama administration's response to it."
Maybe so, but how will voting Republican help the economy and create jobs? This is what people need to ask themselves.
Robert Powell, I agree with your views on health care, but not with the following.
"The only genuine American ideology is Pragmatism."
This has become a cliché since Americans tend to be pretty romantic and even idealistic about such non pragmatic notions as individuality and entrepreneurship.
This is one reason why Ayn Randism and her bizarre fantasies about superior individuals are so popular.
Robert Powell, I agree with your views on health care, but not with the following.
"The only genuine American ideology is Pragmatism."
This has become a cliché since Americans tend to be pretty romantic and even idealistic about such non pragmatic notions as individuality and entrepreneurship.
This is one reason why Ayn Randism and her bizarre fantasies about superior individuals are so popular.
I have this feeling that it's not going be much fun being Scott Brown once the initial euphoria wears off. He can't simulataneously please both Jim DeMint and the Massachusetts electorate. I expect that his honeymoon with the Party will be brief, and that he'll be castigated as a RINO before year's end. Followed by a 2012 primary challenge from one or more Club for Growth/Teabagger whackjob "real Republicans."
Welcome Scott Brown. The next Arlen Specter.
I have this feeling that it's not going be much fun being Scott Brown once the initial euphoria wears off. He can't simulataneously please both Jim DeMint and the Massachusetts electorate. I expect that his honeymoon with the Party will be brief, and that he'll be castigated as a RINO before year's end. Followed by a 2012 primary challenge from one or more Club for Growth/Teabagger whackjob "real Republicans."
Welcome Scott Brown. The next Arlen Specter.
jackson--
With all due respect, individuality and entrepreneurship ARE pragmatic. I'll compare outcomes with the real romanticism of socialism any day.
jackson--
With all due respect, individuality and entrepreneurship ARE pragmatic. I'll compare outcomes with the real romanticism of socialism any day.
Robert Powell “jackson--
With all due respect, individuality and entrepreneurship ARE pragmatic. I'll compare outcomes with the real romanticism of socialism any day.”
Not entirely, Robert. Entrepreneurs are people who invest in a dream. I don’t have the exact figures but for every successful entrepreneur there are many, many unsuccessful ones.
Pragmatism is a mode of acting in the world and hence it’s always allied with tasks and not with any type of being. Communists and Muslims can be pragmatists too when they are trying to solve problems.
Robert Powell “jackson--
With all due respect, individuality and entrepreneurship ARE pragmatic. I'll compare outcomes with the real romanticism of socialism any day.”
Not entirely, Robert. Entrepreneurs are people who invest in a dream. I don’t have the exact figures but for every successful entrepreneur there are many, many unsuccessful ones.
Pragmatism is a mode of acting in the world and hence it’s always allied with tasks and not with any type of being. Communists and Muslims can be pragmatists too when they are trying to solve problems.
jackson--in philosophy, one has to take the Big View. Surely many individual entrepreneurs have romantic ideas that fail miserably. But in the long run and over the broader world, there is simply no question about the fact that systems which reward, or at least don't hinder too much individuality and entrepreneurship succeed much more often and in a much bigger way than those which don't. Like, as mentioned, the Ultimate Romanticism of the Left.
jackson--in philosophy, one has to take the Big View. Surely many individual entrepreneurs have romantic ideas that fail miserably. But in the long run and over the broader world, there is simply no question about the fact that systems which reward, or at least don't hinder too much individuality and entrepreneurship succeed much more often and in a much bigger way than those which don't. Like, as mentioned, the Ultimate Romanticism of the Left.
I agree Robert Powell, but we weren't discussing the pro's and cons of economic systems.
I agree Robert Powell, but we weren't discussing the pro's and cons of economic systems.