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As the age of cheap oil comes to a close, it's springtime for gloomy futurists. Visions of a brutish world marked by violent squabbles over dwindling reserves, of junkyards littered with abandoned cars, of suburban slums overrun by weeds, of the collapse of industrial agriculture--none of this sounds as outlandish as it once did. Still, most of these horror stories are likely overstated: Energy experts tend to agree that, with a little ingenuity and a generous helping of political will, we could transition away from fossil fuels without being forced to give up our modern lifestyles.
But there's one big exception--an area where a post-carbon world really could mean a radical shift in the way we live. That's the world of commercial flight.
Early signs of an aviation apocalypse are already upon us. As oil prices flirt with $130 per barrel and the dollar struggles, airlines are paying nearly 80 percent more for fuel than they did a year ago. Twenty-five airlines have gone belly-up this year--three to four times the usual yearly rate. Major carriers like American, Northwest, and United, still reeling from the industry downturn after September 11, go barely a month without announcing layoffs and capacity cuts.
And it gets worse from there. Despite recent fluctuations, a growing number of economists are bracing for oil to hit or surpass $200 per barrel in a few years, and most industry analysts agree with Douglas Runte, of RBS Greenwich Capital, who told The Wall Street Journal in June, "Many airline business models cease to work at $135-a-barrel oil prices." After all, most airlines barely figured out how to be profitable in a world of low fuel costs. Jeff Rubin, chief economist of Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets, has predicted that gasoline will hit $7 per gallon by 2010, forcing some 10 million cars in the United States off the road. If that happens, he told me, "You're going to see an even bigger exit in the airline industry."
As if one plague wasn't enough, the threat of climate change could mean further doom for airlines. In Great Britain, green groups are lobbying hard in favor of aviation fuel taxes and against a proposed third runway at Heathrow Airport, wewhile activist groups, like one called Plane Stupid, have taken to unfurling banners from atop Westminster Palace and elsewhere with slogans like WE FLY, WE DIE. They argue that, at a time when greenhouse gases are pushing global temperature to perilous levels, flying--one of the most energy-intensive forms of travel around--is a luxury the planet simply can't afford. (While aviation currently accounts for just 3 percent of man-made carbondioxide emissions, it's one of the fastest-growing sources, and the true climate impact of flight is around 2.7 times that of carbon dioxide alone, thanks to the added warming effects of nitrogen-oxide emissions and jet contrails.)
As a result of this advocacy, a social stigma against flying is slowly spreading across Europe. While air travel isn't covered by the Kyoto Protocol, the next round of climate-treaty talks will likely address the issue, and the EU has recently announced that it will bring aviation into its emissions-trading regime--forcing airlines to pay for 15 percent of their carbon use starting in 2012. "That's the real deal," says Bill Swelbar, a research engineer at MIT's International Center for Air Transportation. "When you look at some of the taxes and fees being discussed in Europe, we might as well bankrupt our industry today." John Whitelegg, a transportation expert at York University's Stockholm Environment Institute, estimates that requiring airlines to pay the full environmental costs of flight could raise fares as much as five-fold.
Few of the analysts I interviewed wanted to venture predictions about aviation's end of days. One far-reaching scenario, however, was put forward by Anthony Perl and Richard Gilbert, two Canadian transportation experts who, in their new book Transport Revolutions, envision a world in which rising oil prices have reduced domestic flying in the United States roughly 40 percent by 2025--even assuming that airlines improve fuel efficiency by about 50 percent. In such a scenario, the United States could go from having nearly 400 primary airports down to 50 or so; instead of dozens of flights each day between New York and San Francisco carrying 200 people apiece, there might be only a handful carrying 800 or more in new extra-jumbo jets.
The Federal Aviation Administration, for its part, remains bullish on flight, predicting that U.S. airlines will carry 1.3 billion passengers by 2025, nearly double the current number. But even the FAA is starting to soften its outlook, since, already this year, fares in the United States have risen nearly 15 percent on average and some 2.7 million fewer people are expected to fly this summer than last. American Airlines has announced a 12 percent cut in domestic capacity for the rest of the year; United Airlines, a 16 percent cut. Regional jets--smaller planes carrying fewer than 50 passengers that account for one-fourth of all flights today--are being grounded en masse. In the short term, cuts may prove healthy for many airlines, letting them scale back to profitable core markets. But, if oil prices do soar past $200 per barrel, major carriers could start downsizing sharply, abandoning more routes and smaller hubs, and even going out of business for good.
Maybe the gloomy futurists have a point after all, and mass aviation could be coming to an end. No longer would air travel be like the Internet or television--a cheap technology available to virtually anyone, shaping our world in countless little ways. If that happened, the result would mean more than just the end of easy weekend jaunts to Bermuda or annual Christmas visits home. It could mean major shifts in the economy, changes in immigration patterns across the world, and perhaps even a remapping of the planet as we know it.
In the 1950s, flying was a special event: You could hardly find a ticket from New York to Europe for less than $5,000; men put on suits, women wore hats and heels, and some of the luxury planes, like Pan Am's Clipper, had bridal suites, dining salons, and beds. But, in the late '70s, under pressure from consumer groups and business interests, Congress deregulated the industry, allowing upstarts to open up new routes more easily and compete on price, ushering in the modern age of mass aviation. Between 1975 and 2005, inflation-adjusted airfares in the United States plunged some 40 percent, while the annual number of passengers more than tripled. A similar shift swept across the Europe in the '90s, as deregulation gave rise to popular "no-frills" carriers like Ryanair and Easyjet. By 2001, The Atlantic Monthly was envisioning a dawning age of "air taxis"--small planes that would make flight as quotidian as hailing a cab.
Deregulation had its costs: Airlines ditched amenities and service to offer rock-bottom fares; congestion and delays plagued travelers; and the industry itself became tempestuous for individual companies and their workers. Yet these seemed like minor sacrifices for the democratization of flight, as middle-class travelers were able to visit places once accessible only by books. Attractions changed: Small museums and historic sites tucked away on interstates began to collect dust, while popular hotspots like Cancún and Waikiki became choked with tourists.
Other sociological changes wrought by cheap air travel have also been striking. Since 1980, the number of international migrants has doubled to nearly 200 million, as skilled workers and low-wage immigrants alike, knowing they could affordably return home, became more willing to set off for foreign shores. Within Europe, low-budget airlines like the Hungarian carrier Wizz Air will transport Poles and Hungarians to Western Europe for as low as $26, which has enabled a surge of Eastern European migrant workers into the United Kingdom--most of whom stay for less than three months, according to a recent study by the Institute for Public Policy Research in London. "You'll have, for instance, a Polish doctor who spends most of his time in Poland but commutes to Scotland for a long weekend shift when most Scottish doctors aren't working," says Danny Sriskandarajah, who co-authored the report. "That would've been unheard of five years ago."
In large countries such as the United States, cheap airfare has helped facilitate the geographic dispersion of families and businesses alike. In the 1980s, some onlookers predicted that these trends would spell the demise of large urban centers. That never happened--there are still advantages to agglomeration--but new patterns did emerge. Academics took it for granted that they could toss around ideas with far-flung colleagues at conferences. Trade shows and conventions attracting millions changed the way business was conducted. For a growing subset of college grads, traveling abroad became a way of "finding themselves" before settling down. Long-distance relationships became commonplace--one recent survey in Europe found that three million Brits were looking for love abroad rather than at home, as flying to the continent for dates was just as cheap as taking trains around Britain. Of course, there was a dark side, too: Democratic air travel created new opportunities for terrorism and, as the 2003 SARS epidemic made clear, new pathways for the rapid spread of disease.
More important, if less evident, was the air-freight revolution of the 1980s, as companies like Federal Express bought up planes and transformed logistics and shipping in the United States, creating a system that sped up deliveries, gave the economy vast new flexibility, and fueled the rise of Internet distributors like Amazon and eBay. Air freight now plays a huge role globally, carrying, for instance, one-third of the value of all U.S. imports. And the system relies heavily on cheap fuel: Every night, FedEx keeps a number of empty planes up in the air, to better respond to requests at a moment's notice.
Airports themselves, rapidly expanding both in number and size, have become engines of urban growth. At the extreme end sits Brasília, which was not only conceived in the 1950s as both a capital and a major air hub, but had its first building materials flown in by air and was designed to look like an airplane from above. But airport-driven development is increasingly common in the United States, as well: John Kasarda, a University of North Carolina business professor, has coined the term "aerotropolis" to describe the mini-cities that have grown up around airports, bringing in first hotels for business travelers, then office parks packed with pharmaceutical and tech companies that need to ship out their products quickly. In the '80s, Dallas-Fort Worth's status as a major air hub brought in hundreds of thousands of distribution and manufacturing jobs, along with a conglomeration of high-tech firms that now rivals Silicon Valley.
Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, the social changes wrought by cheap airfares are not going to run perfectly in reverse, like the bombing of Dresden in Slaughterhouse Five. Kasarda, for instance, is skeptical that even large increases in fuel prices will mean the end of aerotropolises, which have become largely self-sustaining. But what if a hefty decline in air travel is upon us? What would that mean?
To start with, flight may become once again largely confined to a more elite jet-setting class. The rest of us may have to vacation closer to home: Even the relatively modest 30 percent dip in air travel after September 11 proved a boon to old-fashioned local attractions like the Texas State Fair and the Bronx Zoo. And many people may think twice about relocating a flight away from family members. "It will involve a shift in people's decisions of whether they have to move," says Vered Amit, a professor of anthropology at Concordia College who studies transnational mobility. "If people are separated for longer, don't see each other as often, it's going to hurt."
Immigration, meanwhile, did not begin with the birth of Easyjet, but some migration flows could cool off--the 465,000 Poles who have flown off on low-cost carriers to work in the United Kingdom since 2004, for instance, or the 70, 000 Filipinos who migrate to the United States each year, or the Caribbean workers, skilled and unskilled alike, who fly frequently up to North America, often maintaining homes in both places.
As for the economy, no doubt a number of business fliers--who account for roughly one-third of all air travelers--will start teleconferencing instead. (Those who do still fly will enjoy the drops in both congestion and delays that come with capacity cuts.) Air freight could be harder hit, which may mean, among other things, that Americans can no longer walk into a Whole Foods in January and find blueberries flown 12,000 miles from Tasmania. During the early '90s, local produce distributors were heralding the fact that air freight had nearly quadrupled the number of items available in U.S. supermarkets. Perhaps not for much longer.
As people stop crossing the globe so frequently, the landscape will change, too. Popular tourist resorts accessible mainly by air, like Orlando and Las Vegas, could decline--much as, ironically, Atlantic City did in the latter half of the twentieth century, when air travel made it easier for East Coasters to fly off and gamble in the Nevada desert. The entire state of Alaska--whose denizens have been called "the flyingest people under the American flag"--would be dramatically altered if the small planes dotting the small airports and frozen lakes across the state could no longer afford to fly quite so often.
Dismal fates could await areas with high per capita concentrations of airport employment, such as Dallas-Fort Worth, Miami, and Tucson. Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, points out that some California cities like Fresno have managed to attract business by promising easy air access from L.A. in precisely the sort of regional jets that are now endangered. And what about the airports themselves--which, as the greens engaged in pitched battles at Heathrow remind us, were often financed based on projections of near-infinite growth and $60-per-barrel oil? Will many of them become, as one industry analyst quipped to me, "half-empty mausoleums"?
Small towns will be especially vulnerable to losing scheduled air service. That's already happened to nearly 30 U.S. cities in the past year, from Wilmington, Delaware (population 72,000) to Boulder City, Nevada (14,000). Hagerstown, Maryland, lost all commercial air service recently, rendering its new $61.8 million, 7,000-foot runway useless. Some of the towns in danger--like Massena, New York, nestled along the Canadian border--lie nowhere near four-lane highways and have been connected to the outside world primarily by airplanes, which they rely on to bring in business clients or take residents to medical centers. One local official in northern Wisconsin recently offered to Milwaukee Magazine a theory on the influx of new residents who don't mind the harsh winters: "They know they're not stuck here. They can fly out for a month or two."
For now, the federal government picks up a large part of the tab for flights to roughly 140 smaller communities with its Essential Air Service Program, which costs $110 million per year and provides subsidies as large as $1,300 per passenger. As fuel prices rise, Congress will have to decide if it wants to directly bankroll ever larger portions of the air network.
Meanwhile, even worse troubles might afflict the developing world, where the global tourism industry brought in $205 billion in 2005; many poorer countries, like those in the Caribbean, have tourism-based economies that depend on cheap air travel. True, there are parts of the world under heavy environmental strain from stampeding tourists--the Gálapagos Islands were recently added to UNESCO's "danger list." But a decline in flight-based tourism could also hurt local ecologies as governments, seeking to replace lost tourist cash, raid their own natural resources: In Ethiopia, for instance, Germany recently funded an eco-tourism project to forestall illegal logging in the Bale Mountains.
Is there a way to avoid this fate? I reached Richard Gilbert, one of the analysts warning of a potentially drastic decline in U.S. air travel over the next two decades, as he was returning from a meeting in Toronto with the U.S. Transportation Research Board, a government research body. I asked him what sort of response he gets when he discusses his book with industry insiders. "You see three arguments," Gilbert told me. "One is that ingenuity, American or otherwise, will overcome the problem in terms of oil prices. The second is that we'll wrestle it to the ground with technology. And the third type of response--and this one doesn't have a specific argument--is that this just can't happen."
It's always dangerous to bet against human ingenuity. But, while most of the technology needed to replace gas-guzzling cars with, say, plug-in hybrids either exists or sits just over the horizon, decarbonizing air travel is a much harder prospect, not least because of the massive amounts of energy needed to lift a large passenger plane in the air. The industry has already boosted the fuel efficiency of jets 70 percent in the last four decades, and is now left sanding down the rough spots--tinkering with ultralight materials, flying more slowly, or even charging passengers for extra bags. Propeller planes use less fuel than jets but are only really viable for some short-haul flights. Engine manufacturers say that more advanced technologies like fuel cells and carbon capture are still technically infeasible, while "blended wing" designs--planes shaped like stealth bombers to reduce drag--have barely left the drawing board. Improvements in air-traffic control will reduce both the length of flights and fuel-wasting delays, but may not be enough to surmount $200-per-barrel oil.
Virgin Airlines CEO Richard Branson has held out high hopes for jet biofuels, though spikes in food prices and massive deforestation have dimmed ethanol's star. Someday we may get solar-powered jets or hydrogen fuel cells, but, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in its landmark 1999 aviation study, "There would not appear to be any practical alternatives to kerosenebased fuels for commercial jet aircraft for the next several decades." The military may be one exception: The Pentagon, worried about peak oil scenarios, has pushed to fuel its Air Force with liquefied coal, which may keep fighter jets aloft, but would have horrifying climate consequences if used on a broad scale.
That means, in the next few decades, high-speed trains-which require considerably less energy per passenger than airplanes--may prove the most viable alternative to flight. York University's Whitelegg notes that, in Europe, trips shorter than 300 miles make up about 45 percent of all flights; most could be traversed nearly as quickly by train, if the proper infrastructure were built. Hank Dittmar, CEO of the Prince's Foundation for the Built Environment, sees airports morphing into "travelports" that seamlessly link rail and air networks, with the latter used largely for long-distance.
Trains, of course, can't span oceans. Perhaps the most unlikely alternative to emerge in recent months is the rebirth of the dirigible or airship, as companies have already been unveiling new designs for niche tourist trips and transporting cargo. The good news is that modern helium airships are far safer than the Hindenburg and emit a great deal less carbon than jumbo jets. The bad news is that natural reserves of helium may be running low and, more to the point, airships can't carry many people at a time, don't handle heavy weather well, and are quite slow: A flight from New York to London would take around 40 hours. (Fast passenger ships would take twice as long, though modern ocean liners suffer in peak oil scenarios, too.)
In an age when American consultants can commute weekly by air and return home to their spouses on the weekends, or when Manchester United soccer fans think nothing of hopping on a flight to follow their team for a quick game in Turin, it's almost impossible to imagine a world in which employers gave workers, say, three weeks off so that they could board a modern-day zeppelin and float home for the holidays. As even George Monbiot, the British environmentalist who has thundered most furiously about the need to downsize air travel in order to stave off drastic climate change, concedes, abandoning the age of mass aviation would be a hugely disorienting change. "It flies in the face of everything we have been encouraged to regard as progress," he has written. But the end of oil, or the urgency of global warming, or both, could well force that change upon us. Is that something our world, increasingly accustomed to its frenetic, globe-trotting pace, could handle?
Bradford Plumer is an assistant editor of The New Republic.
You shouldn't dismiss biofuels so quickly. My understanding is that algae based biofuels are being seriously considered by Boeing. If massive amounts of algae biofuel can be created using vertical farms and refineries powered by hydro, wind, solar and nuclear energy, why shouldn't it be a perfectly viable alternative? I agree that there may be a lull for a while, but I don't think it will be long term, and it will be a huge benefit to the aerospace company that produces the first jets powered without fossil fuels.
You shouldn't dismiss biofuels so quickly. My understanding is that algae based biofuels are being seriously considered by Boeing. If massive amounts of algae biofuel can be created using vertical farms and refineries powered by hydro, wind, solar and nuclear energy, why shouldn't it be a perfectly viable alternative? I agree that there may be a lull for a while, but I don't think it will be long term, and it will be a huge benefit to the aerospace company that produces the first jets powered without fossil fuels.
Great article, surveying terrain that's just over the horizon. Being an engineer, myself, I'm holding out for the return of hydrogen dirigibles.
--JT
PS-- Massena, NY. Not "Manessa"
Great article, surveying terrain that's just over the horizon. Being an engineer, myself, I'm holding out for the return of hydrogen dirigibles.
--JT
PS-- Massena, NY. Not "Manessa"
Maybe like airplanes can drag an extension-cord along behind them?? If that's not practical, perhaps a rebuilding of a high speed passenger rail network across these fruited plain would be in order. Maglev technology from Japan, or French high speed rail systems seem to work. Ground transportation at 350 mph would be as fast as flying, at it's technologically feasible now.
Maybe like airplanes can drag an extension-cord along behind them?? If that's not practical, perhaps a rebuilding of a high speed passenger rail network across these fruited plain would be in order. Maglev technology from Japan, or French high speed rail systems seem to work. Ground transportation at 350 mph would be as fast as flying, at it's technologically feasible now.
Ok, Brad, this is a little silly for one great, big, whopping reason:
If we managed to stop using fossil fuels for automobiles and electricity, the price for what is left is going to be a lot lower than $60 a barrel. In a world where fossil fuels are no longer the mainstay of energy, they can and still will be used for things such as air travel for which there are no substitutes. But then the price will largely be function of the demand for those activities and the supply will be relatively huge. Large supply, extremely reduced demand. What does that tell you about the price?
That is not to say that getting off fossil fuels is easy, or even possible. Usable energy is, after all, not created ... view full comment
Ok, Brad, this is a little silly for one great, big, whopping reason:
If we managed to stop using fossil fuels for automobiles and electricity, the price for what is left is going to be a lot lower than $60 a barrel. In a world where fossil fuels are no longer the mainstay of energy, they can and still will be used for things such as air travel for which there are no substitutes. But then the price will largely be function of the demand for those activities and the supply will be relatively huge. Large supply, extremely reduced demand. What does that tell you about the price?
That is not to say that getting off fossil fuels is easy, or even possible. Usable energy is, after all, not created but, in one form or another, must be provided by nature. However, if we do succeed in solving the much larger problem, we will not then have to worry about the viability of air travel. Very dramatic though.
are these people crazy? they must be made to realize that our air travel is saving us. were it not for the effects of global dimming, hastened in no small part by jet contrails, we might already be living in the day after tomorrow.
are these people crazy? they must be made to realize that our air travel is saving us. were it not for the effects of global dimming, hastened in no small part by jet contrails, we might already be living in the day after tomorrow.
I'm a democrat and a traditional environmentalist, that said, it's well known that the entire premise the so called "green" movement has been pushing, regarding global warming has been manipulated and much of it exagerated. Carbon credits, are a sham, as are the claims made for them are based on lies.
The elevation of bio-fuels as some salvation for the energy crisis has lead to increased hunger and privation, and in Brazil and other Latin American countries, the rainforests (what we've learned help prevent the worsening of problems like the hole in the ozone layer.) are being razed so palm can be planted, and then harvested for bio-fuels. Palm being less effective than the sugar cane which h ... view full comment
I'm a democrat and a traditional environmentalist, that said, it's well known that the entire premise the so called "green" movement has been pushing, regarding global warming has been manipulated and much of it exagerated. Carbon credits, are a sham, as are the claims made for them are based on lies.
The elevation of bio-fuels as some salvation for the energy crisis has lead to increased hunger and privation, and in Brazil and other Latin American countries, the rainforests (what we've learned help prevent the worsening of problems like the hole in the ozone layer.) are being razed so palm can be planted, and then harvested for bio-fuels. Palm being less effective than the sugar cane which has previously dominated in Brazil, for example.
The "green" environmentalists are silent on the subject, as they are on the vast increases in over population and the burdens it imposes on resources.
"Green" environmentalists are quietly promoting the bleeding of resources from the ever increasingly less developed west, into "undeveloped" nations, like Africa.. where more than 3 trillion in "aid" has already disappeared, and while hunger and suffering has sharply increased, the weapons, hummers, luxuries for corrupt government leaders, and increased war, genocide (Arab and African muslim slaughtering Africans who are not muslim) have proliferated.
"Green" environmentalists are also quietly promoting an ideology that rationalizes the starving out of the majority of the populations of the world, so as to ensure that those they consider more "deserving" are able to maintain the lifestyles they have become accustomed to. The premise demands the pushing of the middle class and the poor into urban ghettos, so as to free up other land for "green" zones. The Episcopal church of the US invited one Professor Chris Rapley to promote this concept at the Lambeth Conference last month.
Higher oil prices will result in more oil from traditional sources such as additional exploration and drilling and from new sources such as shale oil. The real oil price and the portion of our incomes it consumes is well below its highs now and prices will come down as supply increases. Alternative energy will come on-line when it is profitable. There is more danger of global cooling than warming caused by carbon emissions. As word gets out that global warming is a hoax, the anti-western, anti-capitalist environmentalists will need to find another plan of attack. Their naked power grab is failing. Finally, airlines will fail and consolidate until they are of the right number and size to ... view full comment
Higher oil prices will result in more oil from traditional sources such as additional exploration and drilling and from new sources such as shale oil. The real oil price and the portion of our incomes it consumes is well below its highs now and prices will come down as supply increases. Alternative energy will come on-line when it is profitable. There is more danger of global cooling than warming caused by carbon emissions. As word gets out that global warming is a hoax, the anti-western, anti-capitalist environmentalists will need to find another plan of attack. Their naked power grab is failing. Finally, airlines will fail and consolidate until they are of the right number and size to be efficient enough to be profitable. It is called creative destruction, it is market forces at work, and it is good. Move along.
There is certainly some truth in the claim that aviation business models will change due to rising oil prices. However, the same mechanism that drives 10m cars off the streets, will also decrease demand and thereby decrease prices. You do not need to be a nobel laureate to assert that high oil prices won´t cause aviation to cease, what it will in fact do is increase ticket prices and get some Americans to rethink their Seattle-Florida-roundtrip holiday plans.
There is certainly some truth in the claim that aviation business models will change due to rising oil prices. However, the same mechanism that drives 10m cars off the streets, will also decrease demand and thereby decrease prices. You do not need to be a nobel laureate to assert that high oil prices won´t cause aviation to cease, what it will in fact do is increase ticket prices and get some Americans to rethink their Seattle-Florida-roundtrip holiday plans.
Typical leftist doom and gloom. Petroleum won't hit $200 a barrel next year, man-made global warming will be proven as the hoax and scam that it is, and the fear-mongering industry will move on to some other scam that can be perpetrated on the susceptible masses of the world. Liberals, socialists and leftists around the world have always jumped on whatever doom and gloom bandwagon they think will bring a few more impressionable minds to their way of thinking. TNR and all the others just lap it up and and tell us the world is coming to an end, again. Rachel Carson was wrong, Ehrlich was wrong in the 1970s, Al Gore is Wrong today and the next round of doom-sayers will be wrong tomorrow. S ... view full comment
Typical leftist doom and gloom. Petroleum won't hit $200 a barrel next year, man-made global warming will be proven as the hoax and scam that it is, and the fear-mongering industry will move on to some other scam that can be perpetrated on the susceptible masses of the world. Liberals, socialists and leftists around the world have always jumped on whatever doom and gloom bandwagon they think will bring a few more impressionable minds to their way of thinking. TNR and all the others just lap it up and and tell us the world is coming to an end, again. Rachel Carson was wrong, Ehrlich was wrong in the 1970s, Al Gore is Wrong today and the next round of doom-sayers will be wrong tomorrow. So, why don't you believers of the doom-sayers just get over it, find a job doing something productive, then jet off to your favorite vaction spot and CHILL.
When I was a child, born in the 50's, air travel was for the well-to-do, but movies and television taught us all to aspire to see the nation, and the world. By the time I started my career, air travel was cheap and common, they really did move their tails for us, they served us food even on fairly short flights, liquor flowed, we could even smoke. While all of that gradually changed, for decades I was able to travel all over the United States and the world a few times a year on both business and pleasure, sometimes even feigning business for pleasure just to excuse the travel. As cattle car flights, airport lines, delays and inefficiencies made flight less a pleasure, that passion subside ... view full comment
When I was a child, born in the 50's, air travel was for the well-to-do, but movies and television taught us all to aspire to see the nation, and the world. By the time I started my career, air travel was cheap and common, they really did move their tails for us, they served us food even on fairly short flights, liquor flowed, we could even smoke. While all of that gradually changed, for decades I was able to travel all over the United States and the world a few times a year on both business and pleasure, sometimes even feigning business for pleasure just to excuse the travel. As cattle car flights, airport lines, delays and inefficiencies made flight less a pleasure, that passion subsided to flying more rarely, but I do hate to think the ever shrinking world our generation enjoyed is going to be replaced with a growing nation and world fewer are able to experience. Surely the same or similar technologies we hope to free us from fossil fuels will eventually be able to fly our airplanes in renewable and climate friendly ways. We surely can't be the only generation ever to be able to easily travel the nation and the world.
roidubouloi--Oh, I agree, if we stopped using fossil fuels for everything else, we'd have plenty left for aviation. But that's certainly not going to happen overnight (it certainly won't happen in China and India), and in the medium-term, aviation will most get hit the hardest.
It's worth noting, and I wish I had included this, that the Gilbert and Perl book foreseeing a 40% decline in domestic air travel by 2025 actually assumes that a lot of ground transportation--cars and so forth--becomes electrified over that timeframe, taking pressure off oil prices. So that's a "well-managed transition" scenario.
roidubouloi--Oh, I agree, if we stopped using fossil fuels for everything else, we'd have plenty left for aviation. But that's certainly not going to happen overnight (it certainly won't happen in China and India), and in the medium-term, aviation will most get hit the hardest.
It's worth noting, and I wish I had included this, that the Gilbert and Perl book foreseeing a 40% decline in domestic air travel by 2025 actually assumes that a lot of ground transportation--cars and so forth--becomes electrified over that timeframe, taking pressure off oil prices. So that's a "well-managed transition" scenario.
A lot of good could come of this.
The airlines, catering only to business and the up-market trade could actually make a profit again instead of constantly sitting on the edge of bankruptcy.
We wouldn't have to travel with people in tanktops and sandals anymore. Maybe people would dress decently to fly again, although given Slacker Nation Slouch fashion, even amongst the well off, no guarantees.
And the renaissance of decent train travel in the U.S. again might not be such a bad thing at all. Especially if it's high speed technology, maybe even magnetic levitation. 300 MPH city center to city center works fine. It's still only 7 to 9 hours coast to coast at those speeds. With stops to stret ... view full comment
A lot of good could come of this.
The airlines, catering only to business and the up-market trade could actually make a profit again instead of constantly sitting on the edge of bankruptcy.
We wouldn't have to travel with people in tanktops and sandals anymore. Maybe people would dress decently to fly again, although given Slacker Nation Slouch fashion, even amongst the well off, no guarantees.
And the renaissance of decent train travel in the U.S. again might not be such a bad thing at all. Especially if it's high speed technology, maybe even magnetic levitation. 300 MPH city center to city center works fine. It's still only 7 to 9 hours coast to coast at those speeds. With stops to stretch in major cities.
All this said, there is also the strong possibility that aircraft could switch from fossil fuels to something more advanced.
If hydrogen proves viable, it is much easier for airlines to switch to that energy source than it is for automobiles. Airlines fly to a relatively few airports around the world. Unlike cars, they wouldn't need a distribution system in every town and on every other block.
The biggest problem I have is with the authors unbacked claim that commercial aviation is the most energy intensive way to travel. Not even close, certainly compared to motor car. Avation uses about 3-5% of daily oil consumption, but, along with ancilary industry's is responsbile for 10% of GDP.
The biggest problem I have is with the authors unbacked claim that commercial aviation is the most energy intensive way to travel. Not even close, certainly compared to motor car. Avation uses about 3-5% of daily oil consumption, but, along with ancilary industry's is responsbile for 10% of GDP.
Oh my, oh dear, oh, what shall we ever do??? [Flaps hands, feeling a little weak-kneed and overstimulated.]
Back to reality . . . . Pseudo-journalists such as Mr. Plumer have had their depressing effect on mainstream consciousness for a while now, but their influence is diminishing rapidly as even the relatively uninformed come to the realization that the "global warming/energy crisis" movement is political - - and leftward leaning to an extreme. We will not stop flying. We will, as we have many times, regain our footing economically and continue to be the most free and innovative population on the planet. The fear Mr. Plumer enjoys peddling is the real threat to our well-being and progress. ... view full comment
Oh my, oh dear, oh, what shall we ever do??? [Flaps hands, feeling a little weak-kneed and overstimulated.]
Back to reality . . . . Pseudo-journalists such as Mr. Plumer have had their depressing effect on mainstream consciousness for a while now, but their influence is diminishing rapidly as even the relatively uninformed come to the realization that the "global warming/energy crisis" movement is political - - and leftward leaning to an extreme. We will not stop flying. We will, as we have many times, regain our footing economically and continue to be the most free and innovative population on the planet. The fear Mr. Plumer enjoys peddling is the real threat to our well-being and progress. Shame on the nay-sayers.
Nice Article, but it necessarily only scratches the surface.
While the article is sobering, I'm more worried by the comments of people that think "nothing will change, it's all a hoax." The world does, has, and will always continue to change. A brief few decades of cheap air travel seem to be enough to lead some people into thinking we'll always have cheap air travel. We may, of course, but it's not a given.
I do see the return of transatlantic transport cruises (with cargo), high speed rail, turbo prop passenger planes, and even, potentially, high speed dirigibles as proven, lower carbon, reliable transport mechanisms. Most of these have already been romaticized. All of them will be slower a ... view full comment
Nice Article, but it necessarily only scratches the surface.
While the article is sobering, I'm more worried by the comments of people that think "nothing will change, it's all a hoax." The world does, has, and will always continue to change. A brief few decades of cheap air travel seem to be enough to lead some people into thinking we'll always have cheap air travel. We may, of course, but it's not a given.
I do see the return of transatlantic transport cruises (with cargo), high speed rail, turbo prop passenger planes, and even, potentially, high speed dirigibles as proven, lower carbon, reliable transport mechanisms. Most of these have already been romaticized. All of them will be slower and have high price tags. But, at least, the slower part is not that serious. The difference between crossing the US in 4.5 hours by jet, or 7.5 hours by turbo prop is not, really, that daunting.
Ticket prices? Ah, there's the rub!
If this scenario is credible, and I have no reason to doubt it at this moment, then a few conclusions are in order. Unless alternative fuel is developed, nuclear perhaps, public air transport is doomed. Businesses will have to depend upon internet communications. Not a bad thing, eliminating the wasteful perks of wining, dining, etc. Disaster for the vacation spots, which would have drastic implications for otherwise 3rd world countries. Drugs would be the alternative income.
And disaster for family connections, except for small countries where driving is an alternative to air travel.
Could this situation/reality signal major changes in life-style? Well of course. Would the pr ... view full comment
If this scenario is credible, and I have no reason to doubt it at this moment, then a few conclusions are in order. Unless alternative fuel is developed, nuclear perhaps, public air transport is doomed. Businesses will have to depend upon internet communications. Not a bad thing, eliminating the wasteful perks of wining, dining, etc. Disaster for the vacation spots, which would have drastic implications for otherwise 3rd world countries. Drugs would be the alternative income.
And disaster for family connections, except for small countries where driving is an alternative to air travel.
Could this situation/reality signal major changes in life-style? Well of course. Would the privileged classes put up with this--I doubt it. So the environment be damned as far as they are concerned. The rest of us should be prepared for another way of life.
I think some of the gloom and doom is hysterics. Yes fuel prices have gone up recently, thanks Madam Speaker, but we do have the resources to lower them, if there was the political will to do so.
But in addition to lowering artificially high fuel costs, other issues have to be addressed for flight to continue to be relatively cheap.
1. The air traffic system needs a radical overhaul. Simply taking advantage of computer's 3D graphic systems would radically reduce the work and stress load of air traffic controllers. Currently they rely on 1960&70 radar style screens, which don't display information intuitively.
2. Infrastructure has to be improved. From building more oil ref ... view full comment
I think some of the gloom and doom is hysterics. Yes fuel prices have gone up recently, thanks Madam Speaker, but we do have the resources to lower them, if there was the political will to do so.
But in addition to lowering artificially high fuel costs, other issues have to be addressed for flight to continue to be relatively cheap.
1. The air traffic system needs a radical overhaul. Simply taking advantage of computer's 3D graphic systems would radically reduce the work and stress load of air traffic controllers. Currently they rely on 1960&70 radar style screens, which don't display information intuitively.
2. Infrastructure has to be improved. From building more oil refineries (How come Iran is building 7 while we haven't built 1 in 30 years?) to expanding road and rail systems. And scrap Amtrac, its a money loser. We should be going mag-lev backed by nuclear power.
3. Longer term solutions would be developing new aircraft propulsion systems at all levels of flight. Right now NASA has a program to improve the fuel efficency of light "personal" aircraft. New jet engines are becoming much more fuel efficent.
4. Bio-fuels from food crops have to be banned. They do nothing but drive up the price of food. And often take more energy to produce than comes out. Oil gives excellent bang for the buck. Plus its useful for things other than fuel. That's why it superceded peanut oil back in the day. (Peanut oil was used in the original diesel engines). Algea based fuels are nice, but they've been have great difficulty scaling up to commerical level production.
Hard to know what to think. The current energy crunch does make total market logic a little iffy in retrospect; Reagan wanted to quit supporting rail and hence, as a practical matter, put it out of business. That was predicated on an era, perhaps brief, of cheap energy that made flying a better deal. One role of governmen is to help maintain forms of infrastructure that constitute a fail safe, and a form of national security, during flucuations in the strength of underlying business models. Sure, you don't want to maintain a purely obsolete industry, but it wouldn't take total brilliance to realize oil was a non-renewable resource, and placing all bets on an infinite future of oil was no ... view full comment
Hard to know what to think. The current energy crunch does make total market logic a little iffy in retrospect; Reagan wanted to quit supporting rail and hence, as a practical matter, put it out of business. That was predicated on an era, perhaps brief, of cheap energy that made flying a better deal. One role of governmen is to help maintain forms of infrastructure that constitute a fail safe, and a form of national security, during flucuations in the strength of underlying business models. Sure, you don't want to maintain a purely obsolete industry, but it wouldn't take total brilliance to realize oil was a non-renewable resource, and placing all bets on an infinite future of oil was not wise. Ditto for the American auto companies, who went for the fast buck with a new era of gas guzzlers, the SUV behemoth, and ditto for Reagan and successors, who said, let Americans drive big cars, and drive them fast. So, let's not jump to the conclusion aviation as we know it is obsolete; don't mothball the airports.
Golly gee Mr. Plummer what world do YOU live in?
" it's almost impossible to imagine a world in which employers gave workers, say, three weeks off so that they could board a modern-day zeppelin and float home for the holidays."
Not so hard to imagine once one escapes from 'Amerika'. The rest of us get AT LEAST 3 weeks off [plus health care, etc. ;-) ]; and as CUNARD used to say, "getting there is half the fun"
@ Jenny
'The premise demands the pushing of the middle class and the poor into urban ghettos, so as to free up other land for "green" zones.'
Some of us do chose to live in them, and they are like my beloved Berlin, VERY livable!. BTW: Here in old EU we call them 'cities'
Golly gee Mr. Plummer what world do YOU live in?
" it's almost impossible to imagine a world in which employers gave workers, say, three weeks off so that they could board a modern-day zeppelin and float home for the holidays."
Not so hard to imagine once one escapes from 'Amerika'. The rest of us get AT LEAST 3 weeks off [plus health care, etc. ;-) ]; and as CUNARD used to say, "getting there is half the fun"
@ Jenny
'The premise demands the pushing of the middle class and the poor into urban ghettos, so as to free up other land for "green" zones.'
Some of us do chose to live in them, and they are like my beloved Berlin, VERY livable!. BTW: Here in old EU we call them 'cities'
Aviation isn't going to end, but jets will probably be phased out for civil aviation and replaced with turboprops. Turboprops are nearly as fast as jets, and consume far less fuel.
Aviation isn't going to end, but jets will probably be phased out for civil aviation and replaced with turboprops. Turboprops are nearly as fast as jets, and consume far less fuel.
An interesting article, but you are dismissing too quickly synthetic fuels, which will eventually replace oil. This in effect puts a cap on the price airlines must pay for fuel. This cap is really already here, since synthetics can be produced more cheaply than $130/barrel. However, it awaits the capital investment necesary to build the plants. Look at South Africa to see what this future will look like.
An interesting article, but you are dismissing too quickly synthetic fuels, which will eventually replace oil. This in effect puts a cap on the price airlines must pay for fuel. This cap is really already here, since synthetics can be produced more cheaply than $130/barrel. However, it awaits the capital investment necesary to build the plants. Look at South Africa to see what this future will look like.
Rachel Carson was definitely wrong. If not for her the government would still be spraying DDT mixed with fuel oil over private property and on citizens without permission, and we would still be reaping the benefits of this enlightened behavior. Erlich was a moron. The hundreds of millions of people who have starved to death or died prematurely from a combination of poor nutrition and lack of access to medical care should have simply gotten good jobs. Really. People should stop taking these people seriously.
Rachel Carson was definitely wrong. If not for her the government would still be spraying DDT mixed with fuel oil over private property and on citizens without permission, and we would still be reaping the benefits of this enlightened behavior. Erlich was a moron. The hundreds of millions of people who have starved to death or died prematurely from a combination of poor nutrition and lack of access to medical care should have simply gotten good jobs. Really. People should stop taking these people seriously.
In 999, Medieval Europeans worried about the coming Apocalypse. In 1999, we were warned of the impending y2k doom. And now, in 2008, TNR warns us, in an undoubtedly reasonable article, of "the end of aviation." I am not too concerned though; according to the Mayans, the end of days will occur in 2012--well before the end of aviation.
In 999, Medieval Europeans worried about the coming Apocalypse. In 1999, we were warned of the impending y2k doom. And now, in 2008, TNR warns us, in an undoubtedly reasonable article, of "the end of aviation." I am not too concerned though; according to the Mayans, the end of days will occur in 2012--well before the end of aviation.
I'm struggling with my attempt to respond appropriately. The only word that pops to mind is "silly," and the last time my brain did so was when The Atlantic's James Fallows reported just a few years ago that by this time commuters would be so frustrated with clogged freeways that we'd all by flying around in a new generation of light, high-tech affordable business jets.
Aviation gets cleaner and quieter and safer every year with each new generation of engines and aircraft and regulatory stretch targets. Today's jetliners burn far less fuel than the jetliners just 10 years ago. They pollute far less. They're much quieter and efficient. Air travel on flights of more than an about 45 minutes is ... view full comment
I'm struggling with my attempt to respond appropriately. The only word that pops to mind is "silly," and the last time my brain did so was when The Atlantic's James Fallows reported just a few years ago that by this time commuters would be so frustrated with clogged freeways that we'd all by flying around in a new generation of light, high-tech affordable business jets.
Aviation gets cleaner and quieter and safer every year with each new generation of engines and aircraft and regulatory stretch targets. Today's jetliners burn far less fuel than the jetliners just 10 years ago. They pollute far less. They're much quieter and efficient. Air travel on flights of more than an about 45 minutes is cheaper, more efficient and usually more environmentally friendly than driving.
Smaller aircraft have much greater range which means gargantuan fuel savings when, for example, you can fly New York to Singapore non-stop without having to go to a major hub to jump aboard a huge 747 or A380 and fly far out of your way to Tokyo, then transfer to another big plane for the rest of the journey. fuel and emissions savings. Imagine Driving from New York City to Seattle by way of Miami and you can get a sense of what that means for airlines, passengers, fuel burn and emissions.
In addition, there is research suggesting that contrails - condensed water vapor produced in the wake of high-flying aircraft - cool the planet to a significant degree.
Aviation is too important to business, to families, to the global economy and to world peace for there not to be a market for it, and as long as there's a market there will be someone to fill it.
Perhaps this was meant as satire?
You beat me to it. Bravo for seeing the obvious.
You beat me to it. Bravo for seeing the obvious.
roidubuloi:
"If we managed to stop using fossil fuels for automobiles and electricity, the price for what is left is going to be a lot lower than $60 a barrel."
That's a pretty big if, and I can't see how it's possible without immediate rationing, and I don't see how THAT is going to happen: "ok, Americans, you can't drive anymore because people still want to go on vacation in Europe."
roidubuloi:
"If we managed to stop using fossil fuels for automobiles and electricity, the price for what is left is going to be a lot lower than $60 a barrel."
That's a pretty big if, and I can't see how it's possible without immediate rationing, and I don't see how THAT is going to happen: "ok, Americans, you can't drive anymore because people still want to go on vacation in Europe."
In the article, it is stated that jet contrails contribute to global warming. Actually, I believe I'm correct that the contrails are actually a cooling agent and therefore they counteract warming.
In the article, it is stated that jet contrails contribute to global warming. Actually, I believe I'm correct that the contrails are actually a cooling agent and therefore they counteract warming.
Well, there's that little talked about, and I suppose controversial, issue that maybe, if there are climate changes at all occurring as a result of hydrocarbon emissions, stratospheric jet flight may be the reason.
That's a big mouthful, but its the summary of the issue as well. And if so, then it puts the elitist promotion of the hydrocarbon issue in a new light. They want us to suffer on the ground so their secret life in the stratosphere can go on.
How about linking up major cities in North America with a high speed, high capacity dedicated rail line? Doable.
Well, there's that little talked about, and I suppose controversial, issue that maybe, if there are climate changes at all occurring as a result of hydrocarbon emissions, stratospheric jet flight may be the reason.
That's a big mouthful, but its the summary of the issue as well. And if so, then it puts the elitist promotion of the hydrocarbon issue in a new light. They want us to suffer on the ground so their secret life in the stratosphere can go on.
How about linking up major cities in North America with a high speed, high capacity dedicated rail line? Doable.
Revenge on the Ludites!
Revenge on the Ludites!
JAH666:
Less than 2 years ago those "liberals, socialists and leftists around the world" predicted that oil would rise about $100 per barrel and you scoffed at that notion so who are you to now say, "Petroleum won't hit $200 a barrel next year, man-made global warming will be proven as the hoax and scam that it is"
Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son...
JAH666:
Less than 2 years ago those "liberals, socialists and leftists around the world" predicted that oil would rise about $100 per barrel and you scoffed at that notion so who are you to now say, "Petroleum won't hit $200 a barrel next year, man-made global warming will be proven as the hoax and scam that it is"
Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son...
Hydrogen combustion is the future of aviation as it should be for all transportation. I know everybody is pushing electric cars, but you can't transport a family of 5 in a Prius and you won't be able to in a Volt or Tesla. Hydrogen has all of the umph of hydrocarbons with, guess what, no carbon. Oh yeah, and we can make all we need from water via electrolysis (a process of passing an electric current through water) and we can generate the electricity from solar, wind, geothermal, etc. Boeing, Airbus, and others have hydrogen-fueled jet engines, whether or not they ever publicize them.
Electrolyzers need to be installed in fuel stations all across the country to start cheaply producing hyd ... view full comment
Hydrogen combustion is the future of aviation as it should be for all transportation. I know everybody is pushing electric cars, but you can't transport a family of 5 in a Prius and you won't be able to in a Volt or Tesla. Hydrogen has all of the umph of hydrocarbons with, guess what, no carbon. Oh yeah, and we can make all we need from water via electrolysis (a process of passing an electric current through water) and we can generate the electricity from solar, wind, geothermal, etc. Boeing, Airbus, and others have hydrogen-fueled jet engines, whether or not they ever publicize them.
Electrolyzers need to be installed in fuel stations all across the country to start cheaply producing hydrogen and watch how quickly people switch away from gasoline.
I think continental and transcontinental air travel will be here for a good time, even after oil is over the top.
But, the connector flights may have to go; they are very inefficient. It seems that one of most foresighted things that governments could do is to force the airports to link the rail system, as in most of Europe and at our own DC National airport. Especially, link the regional airports to the major hubs, so that after a long flight, we can jump to the rail for a short connector.
I think continental and transcontinental air travel will be here for a good time, even after oil is over the top.
But, the connector flights may have to go; they are very inefficient. It seems that one of most foresighted things that governments could do is to force the airports to link the rail system, as in most of Europe and at our own DC National airport. Especially, link the regional airports to the major hubs, so that after a long flight, we can jump to the rail for a short connector.
Don't cry just yet over loss of air to Boulder City, NV. Have you heard of Las Vegas, which it almost abuts. Manessa?, New York... try Massena, New York. Has the fact checker been outsourced?
Don't cry just yet over loss of air to Boulder City, NV. Have you heard of Las Vegas, which it almost abuts. Manessa?, New York... try Massena, New York. Has the fact checker been outsourced?
Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell $3.26 to $111.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier falling to $111.34, its lowest since May 2 and more than $35 -- or 24 percent -- below oil's July 11 trading record above $147.
Try again.
Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell $3.26 to $111.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier falling to $111.34, its lowest since May 2 and more than $35 -- or 24 percent -- below oil's July 11 trading record above $147.
Try again.
I like the millenarian flare. If calmer notions prevail, we have centuries of fossil fuels if we open the wilderness to exploration. I don't know how many backpackers vacation in ANWR but its a pretty expensive operation for all the millions of people who live their human lives in cities and suburbs.
I like the millenarian flare. If calmer notions prevail, we have centuries of fossil fuels if we open the wilderness to exploration. I don't know how many backpackers vacation in ANWR but its a pretty expensive operation for all the millions of people who live their human lives in cities and suburbs.
Doom & gloom for the airlines may mean sunny skies for a serious high speed train system in the U.S. Trains, powered will electricity from clean, renewable resources can provide large numbers of people with cheaper access to cross-country travel. It's true that train travel, even high-speed, will take longer than airplanes, but trains are more comfortable, have power outlets for electronics, tables to work at, WAAAY more space... The airlines that survice can raise prices and cater to the business traveler.
Doom & gloom for the airlines may mean sunny skies for a serious high speed train system in the U.S. Trains, powered will electricity from clean, renewable resources can provide large numbers of people with cheaper access to cross-country travel. It's true that train travel, even high-speed, will take longer than airplanes, but trains are more comfortable, have power outlets for electronics, tables to work at, WAAAY more space... The airlines that survice can raise prices and cater to the business traveler.
Our current situation is nothing to do with the end of fossil fuels as a natural occurence. It has been artificially mandated. Restrictions on drilling by government cause an artificial lack of supply. If all nations said no drilling then we would run out of oil. If all nations said it was illegal to slaughter cows we would have a beef supply problem. We can't wish for alternative energies to be here when they are not. We don't yet know what the next fuel will be. The fact that we still have to use gasoline when it is at $4 a gallon tells you that we don't have a replacement ready. $4 a gallon gasoline gives a pretty good high mark as far a price you have to beat with a non subsidize ... view full comment
Our current situation is nothing to do with the end of fossil fuels as a natural occurence. It has been artificially mandated. Restrictions on drilling by government cause an artificial lack of supply. If all nations said no drilling then we would run out of oil. If all nations said it was illegal to slaughter cows we would have a beef supply problem. We can't wish for alternative energies to be here when they are not. We don't yet know what the next fuel will be. The fact that we still have to use gasoline when it is at $4 a gallon tells you that we don't have a replacement ready. $4 a gallon gasoline gives a pretty good high mark as far a price you have to beat with a non subsidized energy. It hasn't happened and won't simply because we want it to. We should use oil now since it is the cheapest most efficient energy we have for our existing technologies. That and the actual data shows that there is little cost in terms of its pollution. You might not agree with that, but if that is so you need to do some research outside your inner sphere of climate change fear mongers.
"Hagerstown, Maryland, lost all commercial air service recently, rendering its new $61.8 million, 7,000-foot runway useless."
This writer is clueless. General aviation accounts for 90% of civil aviation now and will be least hard hit by expensive fuel. That 7,000 foot runway will host many FBOs, businesses, and related services.
"Hagerstown, Maryland, lost all commercial air service recently, rendering its new $61.8 million, 7,000-foot runway useless."
This writer is clueless. General aviation accounts for 90% of civil aviation now and will be least hard hit by expensive fuel. That 7,000 foot runway will host many FBOs, businesses, and related services.
Air travel AS WE KNOW IT it may be doomed by energy prices, but that hardly means that humanity will be banished en-mass from the skies. The transonic flight that we currently enjoy is inherently wasteful, but in general, aerodynamic drag increases with the square of aircraft speed. That means if you halve an aircraft's speed, theoretically you slash its energy requirements by a full 3/4rs. In fact, a high-efficiency, high-aspect ratio airframe operating near its designed LD/max (speed at which the plane produces the most lift for the least drag) is among the most efficient vehicles on the planet- as evidenced by the world of unpowered flight, where the mere energy in the atmosphere is su ... view full comment
Air travel AS WE KNOW IT it may be doomed by energy prices, but that hardly means that humanity will be banished en-mass from the skies. The transonic flight that we currently enjoy is inherently wasteful, but in general, aerodynamic drag increases with the square of aircraft speed. That means if you halve an aircraft's speed, theoretically you slash its energy requirements by a full 3/4rs. In fact, a high-efficiency, high-aspect ratio airframe operating near its designed LD/max (speed at which the plane produces the most lift for the least drag) is among the most efficient vehicles on the planet- as evidenced by the world of unpowered flight, where the mere energy in the atmosphere is sufficient to keep gliders in the air for hours and allows them to travel hundred, if not thousands of miles without burning a single hydrocarbon.
I'm not saying aircraft of the future will all be gliders, instead, I'm suggesting that our children will fly in large (747 sized) aircraft of similar proportions. These aircraft will be designed and optimized to fly near LD/max, often cruising no more than 200 knots (less than half current air-travel speeds), but at efficiencies and speed rivaling the best high-speed trains, without the extra energy requirements of building and maintaining a track infrastructure.
There is plenty of room in the modern practice of aeronautics to handle high fuel prices, because a well designed aircraft can be designed to rival any other form of transportation in terms of net efficiency. It's not flying that's inherently an energy hog, just flying fast.
As a frequent business traveler who knows a few hundred others, let me say that the majority of business travel could be eliminated and handled with phone calls or video conferences. Yes, it's nice to meet face-to-face, but the high cost and unbelievable hassle of air travel (not to mention the lost productivity) makes it increasingly unattractive.
Maybe we'll finally realize the full potential of all that communications technology we developed in the '90s and drive some profit back into our businesses.
As a frequent business traveler who knows a few hundred others, let me say that the majority of business travel could be eliminated and handled with phone calls or video conferences. Yes, it's nice to meet face-to-face, but the high cost and unbelievable hassle of air travel (not to mention the lost productivity) makes it increasingly unattractive.
Maybe we'll finally realize the full potential of all that communications technology we developed in the '90s and drive some profit back into our businesses.
As a frequent business traveler who knows a few hundred others, let me say that the majority of business travel could be eliminated and handled with phone calls or video conferences. Yes, it's nice to meet face-to-face, but the high cost and unbelievable hassle of air travel (not to mention the lost productivity) makes it increasingly unattractive.
Maybe we'll finally realize the full potential of all that communications technology we developed in the '90s and drive some profit back into our businesses.
As a frequent business traveler who knows a few hundred others, let me say that the majority of business travel could be eliminated and handled with phone calls or video conferences. Yes, it's nice to meet face-to-face, but the high cost and unbelievable hassle of air travel (not to mention the lost productivity) makes it increasingly unattractive.
Maybe we'll finally realize the full potential of all that communications technology we developed in the '90s and drive some profit back into our businesses.
Chicken Little came to mind when reading this.
Chicken Little came to mind when reading this.
The crisis in aviation is the result of government subsidies to parts manufacturers, prime contractors(Airbus, Bombarider, Boeing, Embraer), local gov't subsidies in waved airport useage, etc. Aviation is a giant, communitarian, populist, socialist project and like most other such endeavors it isn't profitable. Only a small percentage of the human population needs to have access to aviation; those who can afford to pay for it with their own money.
Learn to fly, buy a small piston powered plane(burning either AVGAS or if a diesel biodiesel/waste veggie oil or Jet A/A-1 kerosene) otherwise, let the airlines die.
The crisis in aviation is the result of government subsidies to parts manufacturers, prime contractors(Airbus, Bombarider, Boeing, Embraer), local gov't subsidies in waved airport useage, etc. Aviation is a giant, communitarian, populist, socialist project and like most other such endeavors it isn't profitable. Only a small percentage of the human population needs to have access to aviation; those who can afford to pay for it with their own money.
Learn to fly, buy a small piston powered plane(burning either AVGAS or if a diesel biodiesel/waste veggie oil or Jet A/A-1 kerosene) otherwise, let the airlines die.
here's another vote for increased train capacity in the U.S. - this solution seems so obvious. but of course, it would require unpopular government subsidies to put in a better rail system. never mind that government already funds costs that underlie our auto, truck, and airplane use.
perhaps companies in the U.S. will be forced to begin offering longer vacation periods - how about 4-6 weeks off in a row, for everybody! then we'd have the time to travel overseas by sea. i'd enjoy that.
here's another vote for increased train capacity in the U.S. - this solution seems so obvious. but of course, it would require unpopular government subsidies to put in a better rail system. never mind that government already funds costs that underlie our auto, truck, and airplane use.
perhaps companies in the U.S. will be forced to begin offering longer vacation periods - how about 4-6 weeks off in a row, for everybody! then we'd have the time to travel overseas by sea. i'd enjoy that.
Ehrlich, Carlson. Don't forget Malthus and the Club of Rome. No one really believes in climate change and accordingly on one has changed their behavior. That's why Boeing's 787 has a huge backlog of orders. When progressives start riding Greyhound, then I'll start listening to them. By the way, the price of oil is falling rapidly.
Ehrlich, Carlson. Don't forget Malthus and the Club of Rome. No one really believes in climate change and accordingly on one has changed their behavior. That's why Boeing's 787 has a huge backlog of orders. When progressives start riding Greyhound, then I'll start listening to them. By the way, the price of oil is falling rapidly.
Far too often people believe our current state of technology is the pinnacle of achievement. We will develop technological marvels yet undreamed of! Not only will we find ways to produce more petroleum based energy - not only will be develop other sources of energy, including those not even on today's horizon - but you can be certain that one day we will develop modes of transportation we can only imagine today. You can be sure that 150 years ago people didn't even imagine the automobile, let alone the airplane. Read more history... it will make you more optimistic about our future.
Far too often people believe our current state of technology is the pinnacle of achievement. We will develop technological marvels yet undreamed of! Not only will we find ways to produce more petroleum based energy - not only will be develop other sources of energy, including those not even on today's horizon - but you can be certain that one day we will develop modes of transportation we can only imagine today. You can be sure that 150 years ago people didn't even imagine the automobile, let alone the airplane. Read more history... it will make you more optimistic about our future.
Flying should be very expensive. Currently, it is subsidized by the government. The price of gas at the pump isn't high enough either. When we can't fly, I suppose and hope super-fast electric trains will be the replacement. Otherwise, we'll drive to those long distance locations.
Flying should be very expensive. Currently, it is subsidized by the government. The price of gas at the pump isn't high enough either. When we can't fly, I suppose and hope super-fast electric trains will be the replacement. Otherwise, we'll drive to those long distance locations.
Hy is this post date August 27? Article from the future indeed.
Hy is this post date August 27? Article from the future indeed.
Before I go and slit my wrists I think I'll say that while this is an interesting article it is utter nonsense. The world is no more going to quit travelling than eating. We face a lot of challenges and we will get the new energy right...and still be able to enjoy travel all over the globe.
Before I go and slit my wrists I think I'll say that while this is an interesting article it is utter nonsense. The world is no more going to quit travelling than eating. We face a lot of challenges and we will get the new energy right...and still be able to enjoy travel all over the globe.
Mike, extracting the oil from marginal oil fields and shale oil beds is so expensive and energy-intensive that such activities are only profitable at high oil prices. Why do you think nobody's been trying to get at the tar sands/oil shales until now? You lost money selling it at $60 per barrel.
We are starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel in terms of potential sources of oil. The most expensive sources are always the last to be tapped. Yes, the oil is there - but it's not going to be $60-per-barrel oil.
Mike, extracting the oil from marginal oil fields and shale oil beds is so expensive and energy-intensive that such activities are only profitable at high oil prices. Why do you think nobody's been trying to get at the tar sands/oil shales until now? You lost money selling it at $60 per barrel.
We are starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel in terms of potential sources of oil. The most expensive sources are always the last to be tapped. Yes, the oil is there - but it's not going to be $60-per-barrel oil.