Aquacalypse Now

The End of Fish

Our oceans have been the victims of a giant Ponzi scheme, waged with Bernie Madoff–like callousness by the world’s fisheries. Beginning in the 1950s, as their operations became increasingly industrialized--with onboard refrigeration, acoustic fish-finders, and, later, GPS--they first depleted stocks of cod, hake, flounder, sole, and halibut in the Northern Hemisphere. As those stocks disappeared, the fleets moved southward, to the coasts of developing nations and, ultimately, all the way to the shores of Antarctica, searching for icefishes and rockcods, and, more recently, for small, shrimplike krill. As the bounty of coastal waters dropped, fisheries moved further offshore, to deeper waters. And, finally, as the larger fish began to disappear, boats began to catch fish that were smaller and uglier--fish never before considered fit for human consumption. Many were renamed so that they could be marketed: The suspicious slimehead became the delicious orange roughy, while the worrisome Patagonian toothfish became the wholesome Chilean seabass. Others, like the homely hoki, were cut up so they could be sold sight-unseen as fish sticks and filets in fast-food restaurants and the frozen-food aisle.

The scheme was carried out by nothing less than a fishing-industrial complex--an alliance of corporate fishing fleets, lobbyists, parliamentary representatives, and fisheries economists. By hiding behind the romantic image of the small-scale, independent fisherman, they secured political influence and government subsidies far in excess of what would be expected, given their minuscule contribution to the GDP of advanced economies--in the United States, even less than that of the hair salon industry. In Japan, for example, huge, vertically integrated conglomerates, such as Taiyo or the better-known Mitsubishi, lobby their friends in the Japanese Fisheries Agency and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to help them gain access to the few remaining plentiful stocks of tuna, like those in the waters surrounding South Pacific countries. Beginning in the early 1980s, the United States, which had not traditionally been much of a fishing country, began heavily subsidizing U.S. fleets, producing its own fishing-industrial complex, dominated by large processors and retail chains. Today, governments provide nearly $30 billion in subsidies each year--about one-third of the value of the global catch--that keep fisheries going, even when they have overexploited their resource base. As a result, there are between two and four times as many boats as the annual catch requires, and yet, the funds to “build capacity” keep coming.

The jig, however, is nearly up. In 1950, the newly constituted Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations estimated that, globally, we were catching about 20 million metric tons of fish (cod, mackerel, tuna, etc.) and invertebrates (lobster, squid, clams, etc.). That catch peaked at 90 million tons per year in the late 1980s, and it has been declining ever since. Much like Madoff’s infamous operation, which required a constant influx of new investments to generate “revenue” for past investors, the global fishing-industrial complex has required a constant influx of new stocks to continue operation. Instead of restricting its catches so that fish can reproduce and maintain their populations, the industry has simply fished until a stock is depleted and then moved on to new or deeper waters, and to smaller and stranger fish. And, just as a Ponzi scheme will collapse once the pool of potential investors has been drained, so too will the fishing industry collapse as the oceans are drained of life.

Unfortunately, it is not just the future of the fishing industry that is at stake, but also the continued health of the world’s largest ecosystem. While the climate crisis gathers front-page attention on a regular basis, people--even those who profess great environmental consciousness--continue to eat fish as if it were a sustainable practice. But eating a tuna roll at a sushi restaurant should be considered no more environmentally benign than driving a Hummer or harpooning a manatee. In the past 50 years, we have reduced the populations of large commercial fish, such as bluefin tuna, cod, and other favorites, by a staggering 90 percent. One study, published in the prestigious journal Science, forecast that, by 2048, all commercial fish stocks will have “collapsed,” meaning that they will be generating 10 percent or less of their peak catches. Whether or not that particular year, or even decade, is correct, one thing is clear: Fish are in dire peril, and, if they are, then so are we.

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COMMENTS (5)

09/28/2009 - 12:15am EDT |

I thought you were talking about Stanley of course. Is it better or worse that you weren't?

The fishing-industrial-complex.

Ike missed that one. But back then there were probably a lot more fish though.

At last count there were 392 additional "industrial complexes" around the world. We know this because Goldman Sachs set them all up with Henry Kissinger, Tim Geithner and Barack Obama. The Evil Barack Obama. Not the Good one who goes out dancing with Michelle and tucks the kids in each night.

Sigh. Big, huge, gigantic corporations still own the world, don't they? Though luckily not necessarily in that order.

Not to worry about "the jig" though. There are lots more of them to take its place. Lik ... view full comment

09/28/2009 - 4:22pm EDT |

Honestly using Bernie Madeoff as an analogy and comparison point to this global problem really trivializes this issue, and demonstrates the authors lack of understanding for the scope of what he's writing about. Also more emphasis should be placed on the effective pollution in the decline of global fisheries. Information going back to the 1950s I believe estimated that fishery production could easily sustain global population increases well into the end of this century. Studies from the 70s and 80s warned us about the damage that widespread pollution was having on the base resources that these fisheries rely on. Unfortunately those warnings went largely ignored by governments around the wo ... view full comment

09/29/2009 - 7:28pm EDT |

I agre with AaronBBrown that the Ponzi Scheme analogy is weak and trivializes the issue. I also agree that the pollution angle is noticiably absent.

It really is a good piece and pulls together some important considerations. How do you divy up an ocean? If you don't have fish in your piece, and you can't go to the next, what do you do?

With the cool fishing shows on Discovery Channel, America really wants to hear this story. I think he could do a weekly show on Discover and really build his case.

It really looks like we might have to take a year or two off fishing to let the ocean replenish itself. That would devastate huge communities. But it would be better than the battles that would o ... view full comment

10/05/2009 - 10:32pm EDT |

Daniel Pauly has been busy looking at the plight of the oceans for quite some time. He is not only an insightful scientist, he spends a fair amount having the fun of throwing out coy images to see what will hook our attention to the reality of the oceans being destroyed in clear sight before our very eyes.

The Madoff/Ponzi scheme analog is of value if we grasp the core of the intention. Like any such scheme the victims have to be complicit in allowing the victimization to happen. So often the victims of Ponzi schemes know at some level that what is being put forth is not fully true.

The realities of the food system, for which seafood is no different, is that there are voices in this republic g ... view full comment

10/06/2009 - 1:53pm EDT |

Pauly wants to auction off fishing rights to the highest bidder, and that seems unlikely to be "artisanal fisheries" such as CleanFish. Those fleets of underutilized big commercial boats will win out. Owning rights to fish is no different than a farmer owning the rights to the crops off his land.

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